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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBS #2765 2471651
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041651Z SEP 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 002765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2017 
TAGS: PREL EUN KV
SUBJECT: SOLANA TO PRESS EU FMS ON NEED FOR REALISTIC 
PLANNING ON KOSOVO 
 
 
Classified By: Acting PolChief V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d). 
 
SUMMARY 
- - - - 
 
¶1.  (C) An EU official told us September 4 that High Rep 
Javier Solana will press EU foreign ministers, at their 
informal "Gymnich" meeting September 7-8, on the need for 
realistic planning on scenarios for Kosovo even as the 
Contact Group troika talks proceed.  The Portuguese Mission 
told us separately some member states view such planning as 
prejudging the troika talks.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) We met separately September 4 with Michael Giffoni, 
Council Secretariat Deputy Director for te W. Balkans, and 
Alexandra Bilreiho, Portuguse Mission W. Balkans expert, to 
review Kosovo before the September 5 Political and Security 
Committee's discussion of Kosovo with EU representative to 
the Contact Group Troika, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger. 
Giffoni said that the EU members of the Quint remain 
committed to moving forward "realistically" on Kosovo soon 
after the "increasingly likely" unilateral declaration of 
independence by Pristina should the troika-facilitated 
negotiations fail.  Even Spain, he observed, appeared lately 
to be taking a more realistic line on Kosovo.  Romania, 
Slovakia, Hungary, and Greece remain hesitant to move forward 
absent a UNSCR.  Cyprus, he predicted, will "never" recognize 
an independent Kosovo absent UNSC blessing.  Giffoni 
cautioned that various political parties in both Rome and 
Berlin could use any decisions to recognize Kosovo's 
independence as a pretext to challenge the respective 
governing coalitions. 
 
¶3.  (C) We stressed the need for continued prudent planning, 
including on how to stand up an ESDP (or, if absolutely 
necessary because of various member states' legal objections, 
an ESDP-like) rule of law mission in Kosovo.  Giffoni said 
the Council Secretariat continues informally to examine ways 
such a mission might be launched under the cover of a letter 
from UN SYG Ban.  Asked if he envisioned Ban's sending a 
letter if Moscow adamantly opposed such a move, Giffoni 
acknowledged that Russia could probably block this option if 
it chose to do so. 
 
¶4.  (C) Giffoni stressed that EU High Rep. Solana will 
underscore two messages on Kosovo to EU FMs at their informal 
"Gymnich" meeting in Portugal September 7-8.  First, he will 
stress that he wants the current round of troika-facilitated 
negotiations to succeed, even though he thinks the likelihood 
of success is slim.  Second, he will emphasize the need to 
consider alternatives should the talks fail to produce an 
agreement.  Giffoni added that Enlargement Commissioner Olli 
Rehn will echo Solana's remarks. 
 
¶5.  (C) Portuguese Mission W. Balkans expert Alexandra 
Bilreiho offered a different analysis of EU policy regarding 
Kosovo.  She stressed that it is still "too early" for the EU 
to discuss scenarios should the troika-facilitated talks 
fail.  Several member states would view this as prejudging 
the troika process as a failure and the 120-day period as 
simply "window dressing."  We assured her that we continue to 
favor a negotiated solution but that we are also encouraging 
prudent planning, given Belgrade's positions, including 
during the Ahtisaari talks. 
 
¶6.  (C) Bilreiho said she expected Ischinger to characterize 
the August 30 Vienna talks as somewhat positive.  The Serbs 
finally stopped talking about procedure and turned to 
substance, even if they offered little new.  According to 
Bilreiho, there appeared to be an "increased sense of 
urgency" from both Pristina and Belgrade in Vienna.  She 
reiterated that, while the odds for a negotiated solution are 
"quite slim," the EU should focus on facilitating the talks 
and avoid discussing post-December 10 scenarios. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶7. (C) The news that Solana will urge EU FMs to support 
planning for various post-December 10 scenarios is welcome. 
Rehn can, indeed, be expected to reinforce this message, 
particularly in the framework of stability and an EU future 
for the countries of the region.  The Portuguese Mission's 
remarks are disheartening but not unexpected.  Portugal is 
seeking to represent all 27 member states and their views 
remain divergent.  Our contacts at the Portuguese Mission 
appear content not to forge a stronger EU policy on Kosovo. 
From our view, working with the EU Quint members and Solana 
will be more productive than depending on Lisbon to move 
other EU member states in the right direction. 
MURRAY 
.