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INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 005977 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2027 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JN IN
SUBJECT: DESPITE POTENTIAL HICCUPS, PRC PUSHES FOR IMPROVED 
JAPAN TIES 
 
REF: A. FBIS CPP20070825968093 
     ¶B. BEIJING 5749 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs 
Aubrey Carlson.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) In the wake of Japanese PM Abe's September 12 
resignation, his earlier cabinet reshuffle, landmark August 
visit to India and multilateral naval exercises, Embassy 
contacts underscored China's continued desire to improve 
China-Japan relations.  Neither Abe's resignation nor his 
recent cabinet reshuffle will impact the warming "trend" in 
bilateral relations, MFA officials said.  Chinese contacts 
did express concerns about Abe's remarks to the Indian 
Parliament calling for the creation of an "Arc of Freedom and 
Prosperity" in Asia and subsequent naval exercises in the Bay 
of Bengal.  However, the Chinese government did not share its 
views with the Japanese Embassy in Beijing.  Both Japanese 
and Chinese contacts emphasized the PRC government's effort 
to move the relationship forward, despite some challenges 
posed by Chinese public opinion.  A Yasukuni shrine visit 
would be, and the East China Sea issue could be, a stumbling 
block to warming ties.  End Summary. 
 
Views from Beijing on Abe's Resignation 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan Division Second 
Secretary Liu Hong predicted to Poloff on September 12 that 
 
SIPDIS 
PM Abe's resignation will not have a major impact on 
bilateral ties.  Warming relations have already become a 
"trend," and barring a major development there "will not be a 
fundamental change" in the relationship.  When asked about a 
possible replacement, Liu cited media reports suggesting 
former FM Taro Aso may take over.  University of Shizuoka 
Professor Hajime Izumi, participating in a seminar in Beijing 
on China-Japan relations, told Poloff on September 12 that 
the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee International 
Department (CCID) officials expressed "shock" at Abe's 
decision to resign.  However, Izumi said, both he and his 
CCID interlocutors believe that warming bilateral relations 
will continue even without Abe.  (Note: Izumi speculated that 
the timing of Abe's resignation was due to a serious stomach 
ailment.) 
 
¶3. (C) Peking University Professor and Japan scholar Liang 
Yunxiang agreed on September 12 that Abe's resignation would 
not have a major influence on bilateral ties.  Abe's 
resignation was not unexpected, Liang said; the possibility 
existed since the LDP's upper house loss.  Aso's selection 
would not in itself have a positive influence on the 
relationship given Aso's conservative credentials.  Liang 
said Abe was probably a bit better for Sino-Japanese ties, 
but Abe and Aso have similar political views.  Like Abe, Aso 
is a realist.  In Liang's estimation, Aso will probably not 
visit Yasukuni Shrine.  China Foreign Affairs University 
Japan Policy Studies Director Zhou Yongsheng agreed, saying 
Aso would be a "little worse" than Abe for Sino-Japanese 
ties, but can also be expected to "take a realist road." 
Whoever is the next prime minister, Liang said, will probably 
be invited to China this year, provided the new leader does 
not visit Yasukuni. 
 
Selective Restraint 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Other recent events that had the potential to derail 
warming ties were met with Chinese restraint.  Japanese 
diplomats told us they were surprised that China made no 
formal remonstration after Abe's visit to India, particularly 
following his remarks to the Indian Parliament calling for 
the creation of an "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" in Asia. 
Japanese Embassy First Secretary Akira Yokochi told Poloff on 
August 22 that there was also no reaction from the Chinese on 
the quadrilateral relationship ("Quad") developing between 
India, Japan, Australia and the United States.  He emphasized 
the "calm attitude" of the PRC leadership in this 35th 
anniversary year of the Japan-China relationship.  Counselor 
Namazu said separately that on August 29 there has been no 
direct response from the Chinese on either the India trip or 
the naval exercises between the United States, Japan, 
Australia, India and Singapore.  He did remark to us on 
September 7 that Indian PM Singh told Abe of Chinese pressure 
on the "Quad" i 
ssue. 
 
¶5. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan Division Deputy 
Director Lu Guijun told us on August 30 that he was hesitant 
to comment on Abe's trip to India, saying only that "China 
 
BEIJING 00005977  002 OF 003 
 
 
paid close attention" to the visit.  He referred Poloff to 
the MFA spokesperson's comments on Abe's visit with the son 
of deceased War Crimes Tribunal Justice Pal (Ref A).  (Note: 
Pal was a dissenting judge in the war crimes trials that 
convicted Japanese leaders after WWII.)  Asked about the 
"Quad" issue, Lu replied that cooperation has been the trend 
in East Asia, and all parties are working hard to increase 
cooperation.  He hopes that counties will not engender 
"estrangement" or "misunderstanding."  Japan's "Arc of 
Freedom and Prosperity" represents "Cold War thinking" and is 
not beneficial to mutual trust or China-Japan relations, he 
stressed.  Military exercises should benefit regional 
stability, and China does not want other countries' military 
cooperation to influence its own relationships.  China has 
not "judged" whether the "Quad" will do that or not, but the 
PRC hopes that it will not.  China will continue to monitor 
the situation, Lu said. 
 
¶6. (C) China Foreign Affairs University Japan Policy Studies 
Director Zhou expressed concern about the quadrilateral 
relationship, stating that the grouping is meant to encircle, 
constrict and isolate China.  While the "Quad" professes it 
is "counterterrorist" in nature, it is actually aimed at 
China, he claimed.  Japan's proposed "Arc of Freedom and 
Prosperity" is meant to encircle the DPRK, Russia and China. 
Japan wants to isolate China because it fears a strong China. 
 On the other hand, Peking University Professor Liang said 
China is sensitive to talk of the "Arc of Freedom and 
Prosperity," but most Chinese do not think it is realistic. 
He stressed that Japan does not have the same ability as the 
United States to organize such a multilateral group.  If the 
United States were more actively calling for the "Quad," that 
would push China closer toward Russia, he said. 
 
No Reshuffle Kerfuffle 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Our Chinese interlocutors believe that Abe's recent 
Japanese Cabinet reshuffle also will not impact warming 
bilateral ties.  Abe's choice of ministers "would not change" 
Sino-Japanese relations, MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan 
Division Deputy Director Lu Guijun told us on August 30. 
Both sides will continue to take measures to improve the 
relationship, he said.  Japan expert Zhou said that new 
Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Machimura opposed former 
PM Koizumi visiting Yasukuni Shrine during his last tenure as 
foreign minister.  The new Minister of Defense Komura 
"understands China," he added.  Japanese Embassy Counselor 
Hiroyoku Namazu told us on August 29 that he believes the new 
foreign minister will be influential and capable.  He is 
"more of a realist than Koizumi," Namazu stated, referring to 
Machimura's August 27 pledge that he would not visit Yasukuni 
so long as he is foreign minister. 
 
China Desires to Improve Ties, Nurture Public Opinion 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶8. (C) Japanese Embassy First Secretary Yujiro Hayashi noted 
on September 6 that China is keen to improve the bilateral 
relationship and is trying not to upset it.  Many issues from 
previous years are not coming up this year, he said.  In 
Yokochi's estimation, China seeks to improve relations with 
Japan within the framework of a larger "all-directional" 
diplomatic policy.  China wants productive relations with all 
countries because it needs to concentrate its resources on 
crucial domestic issues, such as the 17th Party Congress, the 
Olympics and the Shanghai Expo.  China's decisions, 
therefore, will necessarily have its domestic constituency in 
mind, he said. 
 
¶9. (C) Japan expert Zhou said that most young Chinese "hate 
Japan."  However, since Abe took office, Beijing has begun 
touting positive aspects of Japan to overcome these negative 
feelings.  Chinese public responses to Abe's visiting Justice 
Pal's son and offering a small tree to Yasukuni were "low 
key."  Zhou estimates that the government will not overly 
propagandize issues like these.  He suggested that China may 
even put more Japanese television shows and movies on the air 
to improve public opinion.  Beijing is being careful in its 
reaction to events like the Quad and Abe's trip in the hope 
of changing Japanese views of China, Zhou said.  China 
particularly wants to counter fears of the "China threat" in 
Japan.  This was the primary intent of Minister of National 
Defense Cao Gangchuan's recent trip to Japan, he noted. 
However, the Japanese government's actions can also influence 
Chinese public opinion, Zhou cautioned, stressing that a 
visit to Yasukuni would cause problems. 
 
¶10. (C) Professor Liang said China has made a strategic 
decision to improve bilateral relations with Japan.  China 
will cooperate irrespective of who is the prime minister of 
Japan as long as the new leader does not visit Yasukuni 
 
BEIJING 00005977  003 OF 003 
 
 
Shrine.  Regardless of whether the two countries have 
political differences, a close and deep economic relationship 
is developing, he stated. 
 
East China Sea 
-------------- 
 
¶11. (C) In addition to a Yasukuni visit, the territorial 
dispute in the East China Sea could also sink warming 
bilateral ties, some of our contacts reported.  (Note: 
Counselor Namazu confided to Poloff that a date for the next 
round of talks has not been announced, but they will likely 
take place on September 21 in Beijing.  MOFA DG Kenichiro 
Sasae will lead the Japanese delegation.)  First Secretary 
Yokochi told Poloff that while he is pessimistic about a 
quick resolution of the issue, he believes the two countries' 
leaders may be able to settle the dispute politically.  He 
did not believe this could be achieved in talks at the 
director general-level, though.  Hayashi said the East China 
Sea issue is the major bilateral issue to be resolved, a 
sentiment also expressed by Professor Zhou.  Zhou predicted 
that bilateral relations could worsen if resolution proves 
problematic.  Liang was more optimistic, saying a 
breakthrough is possible because both sides agree in 
principle on a way forward.  Echoing this view, Professor 
Izumi noted that both countries believe this issue is 
manageable and recognize that reaching a final resolution 
will take time. 
Randt