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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EPET KDEM TU AJ KZ RS TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN:  A TURKISH BUSINESSMAN WORRIES 
 
REF: ASHGABAT 1008 
 
ASHGABAT 00001014  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: CHARGE RICHARD E. HOAGLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Turkish Businessman and Turkmenistan 
insider Ahmet Chalik (protect throughout) describes President 
Berdimuhamedov as weak because he is beholden to outside 
interests, principally Russian.  He says Turkey's Prime 
Minister Erdogan and President Gul are eager to promote a 
trilateral energy summit involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, 
and Turkmenistan.  Chalik insists for Turkmenistan to succeed 
as a relatively normal, independent country, it needs to 
institute democracy, an open economy, and rule of law.  While 
Chalik's views on Berdimuhamedov may be idiosyncratic, they 
are worth considering because of his 15 years as an insider 
in Turkmenistan.  However, the fact that he has lost his 
most-favored status since former President Niyazov's death 
may be coloring his views.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) During a nearly four-hour dinner in Istanbul on 
September 19, Ahmet Chalik, founder and President of Chalik 
Holding and with 15 years experience in Turkmenistan, 
discussed with Charge his rising concern about the government 
of President Berdimuhamedov.  Chalik began in invest in 
Turkmenistan (textiles and construction at first, now also 
energy) in 1992.  Although he is a Turkish citizen, because 
he was a confidante of former President Niyazov who treated 
him like a son, Niyazov awarded him Turkmenistani citizenship 
and made him a Vice Premier. 
 
¶3.  (C) Chalik said, "It's been eight months.  We hear good 
words (from Berdimuhamedov), but we see no actions.  Nothing 
has changed -- except they've taken down Niyazov's pictures 
and put up Berdimuhamedov's.  Turkmenistan cannot recover 
from Niyazov and become a relatively normal country without 
democracy, an open economy, and rule of law." 
 
FOLLOW THE MONEY 
 
¶4.  (C) Charge asked, "Who is Berdimuhamedov?  How was he 
chosen to become president?  Who put him in power?"  Chalik 
answered the third question, "The guys with the guns." 
Chalik said he'd known Berdimuhamedov during the Niyazov era 
as a "nice guy and relatively competent," but certainly no 
one with a national political base or political ambitions of 
his own.  Chalik said those who put Berdimuhamedov in power 
-- at the top of the list he named the Ministry of Defense 
and the Ministry of National Security -- did it not so much 
to protect their own interests as to defend the interests of 
others.  Asked to be more precise, Chalik chose his words 
carefully and said, "To the north" (Russia).  When asked if 
he put any credence in rumors that Niyazov did not die a 
natural death, Chalik shrugged and answered, "Follow the 
money."  He pointed out that Niyazov signed an agreement in 
2006 allowing China to be the first major foreign power to 
challenge Gazprom for Turkmenistan's on-shore natural gas. 
Chalik then added, "But I can sometimes be 'oriental,'" 
meaning he recognizes the attraction of conspiracy theories. 
 
¶5.  (C) Returning to the current political situation, Chalik 
criticized Berdimuhamedov for stacking his government with 
"incompetents from his own tribe," the Geok-Tepes of Ahal 
Province.  "At least Niyazov kept balance by giving 
ministries and power positions to people from all over the 
country."  Chalik was especially upset that Berdimuhamedov 
has removed and, in a few cases, imprisoned those whom Chalik 
described as the most competent and closest to him 
personally, especially the former Minister of Culture.  When 
asked why he did this, Chalik replied Berdimuhamedov didn't 
do it on his own.  "The guys with guns" who put him in power 
forced his hand to make him more dependent on them. 
 
¶6.  (C) When Charge suggested Turkmenistan had probably 
maintained the most independence from Russia of the five 
 
ASHGABAT 00001014  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Central Asian states, Chalik replied, "Not true.  On the 
surface, maybe, but not behind the scenes."  He explained his 
view that Russia had always maintained close connections in 
the power agencies in Turkmenistan, especially through the 
traditional Soviet-era mafia-intelligence agencies 
connection.  He specifically critized Deputy Minister of 
National Security Hojimurad Altayev as the key Russian 
mafia(s) link in the government. 
 
TURKEY READY TO FACILITATE TRILATERAL ENERGY SUMMIT 
 
¶7.  (C) On energy, Charge described Azerbaijan President 
Aliyev's idea for a trilateral energy summit:  Azerbaijan, 
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan.  Chalik said he was well aware of 
this effort and knew that Aliyev and Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev 
were on board, but he said he did not know if Berdimuhamedov 
had been approached yet, or if he had been, how he had 
responded.  Chalik said that both Prime Minister Erdogan and 
President Gul, whom he had seen in recent days, were eager to 
assist with the project, and that Gul had told him he would 
raise this with the three presidents during his upcoming trip 
to the region. 
 
¶8.  (C) Charge described to Chalik the USTDA offer a few days 
earlier to fund a feasibility study to link the Caspian Sea 
natural gas infrastructures of British Petroleum (Azerbaijan) 
and Petronas (Turkmenistan) as a first step to get 
Turkmenistani natural gas flowing across the South Caucasus 
states, through Turkey, and on to Europe.  Chalik said he 
himself had already raised with Berdimuhamedov the Importance 
of this infrastructure linkage, and Berdimuhamedov had seemed 
interested but was unprepared to make any firm commitment, 
probably, Chalik speculated, because Berdimuhamedov cannot 
make this decision on his own.  Charge asked if 
Berdimuhamedov isn't the final decision maker on 
Turkmenistan's oil and gas resources, who is -- Deputy Prime 
Minister for Oil and Gas Tachberdi Tagiyev?  "No, it's the 
guys with guns."  Still, Chalik suggested, a concerted 
diplomatic effort, including by Turkey and states in the 
region, might find success. 
 
THE OLD RULES ARE GONE, THE NEW ONES UNKNOWN 
 
¶9.  (C) Describing the inner workings of Berdimuhamedov's 
government, to the extent he knew, Chalik said there's more 
unease now than under Niyazov, mainly because no one knows 
the rules anymore.  He said Niyazov may have become 
increasingly paranoid and cruel toward the end of his life, 
but at least he exercised some degree of power, as corrupted 
and capricious as it might have been.  People now perceive 
Berdimuhamedov does not have independent power and are 
unwilling to make any decisions, even to support things 
Berdimuhamedov says he wants.  Chalik added, "In any case, 
except for maybe four or five, including the Foreign Minister 
and Minister of Textiles, the ministers are timid 
non-entities." 
 
¶10.  (C) Asked about Foreign Minister Rashit Meredov's 
standing with Berdimuhamedov, Chalik replied it varies, 
depending on Berdimuhamedov's psychological mood, but 
fundamentally remains strong.  "Berdimuhamedov needs him as 
long as he maintains the appearance of an open foreign 
policy.  But if Meredov tries to take steps against the 
hidden energy interests, he'll be out." 
 
HOPE?  EDUCATION AND ACCESS TO INFORMATION 
 
¶11.  (C) According to Chalik, the longer term hope for 
Turkmenistan is access to international education and 
international information.  Charge described U.S. offers for 
cooperation on educational reform and enhanced educational 
exchanges, and the difficulty we have faced because of 
Ministry of Education International Affairs Director Nury 
Bayramov.  Chalik said, "Of course.  The minister doesn't 
 
ASHGABAT 00001014  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
make any decisions.  It's the KGB." 
 
¶12.  (C) Chalik suggested it would be worth the effort to try 
to get CNN-Turk broadcast in Turkmenistan. 
 
¶13.  (C) COMMENT:  While it's clear Chalik subscribes, to a 
degree, to conspiracy theories, because of his insider 
experience it's worth factoring his views into the 
understanding we're trying to develop of Berdimuhamedov and 
his government.  His is one more piece of the puzzle.  The 
Turkish Ambassador and other Turkish businessmen in Ashgabat 
have an equally glum view of Berdimuhamedov's government and 
bemoan losing long-standing contracts to Russian interests. 
Perhaps they are looking for a conspiracy theory why their 
bottom lines are shifting. 
 
¶14.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Our view is somewhat different. 
Yes, the new government remains fairly opaque to us, and real 
change is coming very slowly, but that is the norm in the 
Central Asian states and exacerbated in Turkmenistan by the 
destructiveness of the Niyazov era.  We see no broad and 
concrete evidence that Russia is pulling all the strings 
behind the scenes.  In fact, Russian open-source material, 
which is often officially sanctioned, is beginning to worry 
more about Russia's place in Turkmenistan.  The primary 
concern seems to be their view that Berdimuhamedov is 
postponing finalizing the Trilateral Agreement of May 12 to 
refurbish and expand the Prikaspiskyy gas pipeline to Russia. 
 In the end, the fact that Chalik has lost his most-favored 
status since former President Niyazov's death may be coloring 
his views.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND