VZCZCXRO9470
PP RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD
DE RUEHKO #3739 2260926
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140926Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6465
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 2564
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 4987
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 6176
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 3326
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAEPA/HQ EPA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS TOKYO 003739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR IO, G, EAP/J AND OES/EGC - HARLAN WATSON, TRIGG 
TALLEY, EDWARD FENDLEY, NORMAN BARTH, AND CHRISTO ARTUSIO 
USDOC FOR NOAA CLIMATE CHANGE OFFICE - SID THURSTON 
WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ - JAMES CONNAUGHTON 
DOE FOR S-3 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG JA
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: EMISSION IMPOSSIBLE: NPP SHUTDOWN 
EXACERBATES JAPAN'S KYOTO TARGET BIND 
 
¶1.  Summary: According to a joint Ministry of Economy, Trade, 
and Industry (METI) and Ministry of Environment (MOE) interim 
report issued on August 10, Japan will miss its Kyoto 
Protocol emissions reduction target by 20-34 million tons per 
year (1.5-2.7 percent of total emissions) if it maintains its 
current emissions reduction program, the Kyoto Target 
Achievement Plan.  Even this shortfall may be optimistic, 
since the Plan assumes nuclear power plants (NPPs) operate at 
87-88 percent of capacity.  Since FY04, Japan's NPPs have 
operated at around 70 percent capacity.  NPP capacity 
utilization will fall further with the shutdown of the 
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP following the July Niigata earthquake. 
 Emissions from thermal plants brought online to replace the 
power lost by the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP shutdown are 
estimated at around 28 million tons per year.  METI and MOE 
are now studing how to revise the Plan to meet Japan's Kyoto 
Protocol obligations.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  Revised emissions projections put Japan 20-34 million 
tons short of its Kyoto greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 
reduction target according to an interim report released on 
August 10 by METI and MOE.  Under the Kyoto Protocol, Japan 
pledged to reduce GHG emissions during the 2008-2012 period 
to 6 percent below the 1990 level, or to 1.186 billion tons. 
However, emissions were up 8 percent over 1990 levels in 2005 
and METI now predicts 2010 emissions at 1.273-1.287 billion 
tons -- 100 million tons short of the goal.  Under Japan,s 
2005 Kyoto Target Achievement Plan, most of that shortfall 
would be made up by purchasing emissions rights overseas and 
credit for gas absorption by enhanced forest management. 
(NOTE: The forest credit is based on an agreement reached in 
Marrakech and involves no actual forestry programs, or 
measurement of carbon sink performance.  END NOTE.)  With 
these revised emissions projections, Japan would fall short 
of its commitment by 20-34 million tons, or 1.5-2.7% of total 
emissions.  Purchasing emissions rights to make up for that 
shortfall would cost between 66 billion and 110 billion yen 
(USD 557 million and 928 million) at current market prices 
(which would likely go up with increased demand for emissions 
rights). An MOE contact told post that MOE has begun revising 
the Plan yet again, with changes to be finalized by the end 
of this year. 
 
¶3.  Unfortunately for the GOJ, the assumptions for NPP 
capacity utilization contained in its Kyoto Target 
Achievement Plan appear overly optimistic.  Nuclear power 
plants provide about 35 percent of Japan's electricity.  The 
Plan assumes NPPs will operate at 87-88 percent capacity. 
Since FY04, Japan's NPPs have operated at around 70 percent 
capacity.  NPP capacity utilization will fall further with 
the shutdown of all seven reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 
NPP, the largest NPP in the world, following the July Niigata 
earthquake.  In FY 2003, when Tokyo Electric Power was forced 
to shutdown 17 of Japan's 54 NPPS for inspection due to the 
falsification of past inspection and maintenance records, NPP 
capacity utilization fell to 59.7 percent.  In fact, GHG 
emissions from thermal plants brought online to replace the 
power lost by the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP shutdown are 
estimated at around 28 million tons per year, which would 
double Japan's Kyoto target shortfall. 
 
¶4.  Even with the return of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, which 
could take a year or more, Japan would still have to either 
increase its NPP capacity utilization well above its recent 
average, or bring new NPPs online faster in order to avoid 
having to buy its way to its Kyoto target.  Japan currently 
has 3 NPPs under construction with 8 more planned.  While the 
full effect of the recent earthquake on Japan's nuclear power 
industry is as yet unknown, any increased regulation or 
public resistance would make acceleration of NPP construction 
problematic. 
MESERVE