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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
MANILA FOR D/KAYE LEE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV JA
SUBJECT: UPDATED SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER.  REASONS 1.4 (B)/(D) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Since our scenesetter last week, Prime Minister 
Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered an 
historic defeat in July 29 elections for the Upper House of 
the Diet, losing 27 of 64 incumbent seats and, thereby, 
ceding control of the Upper House to the opposition.  (Abe's 
ruling coalition still holds a commanding 2/3 majority in the 
more powerful Lower House.)  Abe, himself, is badly weakened, 
but at this point is still holding on to the party presidency 
and premiership, having received endorsement by the party 
executive leadership.  Others within the LDP have called on 
Abe to resign, an opinion shared by the majority of Japanese 
in public opinion polling, but so far the LDP power brokers 
have not called for his head.  Perhaps more importantly, no 
one in the party has stepped forward to try to take Abe's 
place.  Several names, however, are circulating in Tokyo 
about a successor in the event that Abe does step down.  They 
include:  Foreign Minister Aso, former Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Fukuda, former Finance Minister Tanigaki, former 
 
SIPDIS 
Defense Minister Nukaga, and current Minister of Defense 
Koike, who assumed her portfolio just last month. 
 
¶2.  (C)  For his part, Abe is trying to project an image of 
continuity within the post-election turbulence.  He announced 
that he will call the Diet into session from August 7-10 to 
take care of limited housekeeping chores, including naming 
the new President and Vice President of the Upper House and 
swearing in newly elected members.  Abe also has stated that 
he plans to reshuffle party executive positions, as well as 
the cabinet, indicating that such actions will take place 
around the first of September.  Whether he makes it that far 
remains to be seen.  In the meantime, there is palpable 
anxiety that Abe's weakness will cause Japan to be further 
sidelined on important foreign policy issues, such as the 
Six-Party Talks. 
 
¶3.  (C)  A newly-emboldened opposition Democratic Party 
leader, Ichiro Ozawa, is making plenty of noise, declaring 
that he intends to make life difficult for Abe and his 
coalition, difficult enough to force a dissolution of the 
Lower House and general elections in which the opposition 
would have a strong chance of seizing power.  Ozawa has 
publicly thrown down the gauntlet on an issue of importance 
to us (and for those who think in broad terms, for Japan as 
well), the need to extend the Anti-Terrorism Law, which 
provides authority for Japan to operate its refueling mission 
in the Indian Ocean in support of Afghan operations.  Ozawa 
has publicly declared that the Democratic Party opposed the 
law when it was originally enacted and will oppose it again 
this fall.  In response, Ambassador Schieffer has told the 
press that he would like to meet with Ozawa to persuade him 
why he should support the bill.  The Ambassador will be 
making two points -- Japan's continued participation will 
allow countries like Pakistan to stay on patrol in the Indian 
Ocean, and Japan is a member of the international community 
and as such has responsibilities to others besides just the 
United States. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The recent House Appropriations Committee renewal of 
the Obey Amendment restricting the release of F-22A Raptor 
was seen by the Japanese Government and media as a major 
setback to Japan's efforts to procure the airframe to replace 
its aging F-4 fleet.  The Ministry of Defense (MOD) has 
signaled its intention to keep the Air Self Defense Force's 
F-4s in service for an additional year to provide more time 
for the GOJ to lobby the U.S. executive and legislative 
branches to sell the F-22 to Japan.  On another 
security-related issue, Prime Minister Abe's effort to relax 
restrictions on the exercise of collective self-defense is 
sure to become more problematical in the wake of the election 
defeat. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003516  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5.  (C)  Finally, we note that House approval of 
Representative Honda's Comfort Women Resolution on July 30 
has sparked a predictably negative reaction in Japan.  While 
the Prime Minister was restrained, labeling the House action 
"regrettable," the media has been more forceful in denouncing 
the House action.  Representative Jim Saxton's resolution 
lauding Japan as one of our most reliable security partners 
and expressing appreciation for Japan's contribution to the 
war on terror, which was also approved on July 30 by the 
House Foreign Affairs Committee, received only limited 
inside-page coverage in the Japanese press. 
SCHIEFFER