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FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
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INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 3183
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 9333
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 3795
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 3657

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001405 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR UZ
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION TOUR FOR KARIMOV? 
 
REF: A. TASHKENT 199 
     ¶B. 06 TASHKENT 02017 
 
Classified By: CDA BRAD HANSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: President Karimov traveled unusually far 
afield in May and June, possibly in anticipation of an 
expected reelection campaign.  Independent press speculation 
suggests that the Uzbek president will seek reelection, 
possibly by amending the Uzbek Constitution to allow him to 
run for a third term.  Others speculate some legal ruling 
will be finagled explaining away a third term for the 
president.  Karimov's recent travels can be seen as a 
pre-election effort to improve his public image and solidify 
his support outside of Tashkent.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) In the six weeks between May 17 and June 22, President 
Karimov crisscrossed Uzbekistan, traveling to six of the 
country's 14 provinces.  The presidential visits generally 
followed the same script in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, 
Navoi, Namangan, and Andijon.  Karimov toured each province's 
major economic enterprises and public works projects and gave 
managers and local officials instructions on further 
development.  The president hosted meetings with farmers, 
workers, students, and children, who described local 
conditions, discussed their concerns, and expressed gratitude 
and enthusiasm for Karimov's leadership.  Each visit also 
included at least one speech on a public policy issue, such 
as economic development, independence in international 
affairs, or national culture. 
 
¶3. (U) Karimov made efforts to reach out to specific 
constituencies during his travels, including senior clerics 
in Bukhara, ethnic Tajiks in Navoi, women in Namangan, and 
farmers in each of the regions.  He even praised the 
residents of Andijon for "standing firm" during Uzbekistan's 
"national tragedy".  Uzbek national television covered each 
trip extensively, beginning with a morning bulletin on 
Karimov's arrival at the regional airport and finishing with 
an hour-long special program summarizing the visit a few days 
later.  According to state-controlled media, the trips were 
inspection tours allowing Karimov to evaluate the progress of 
local infrastructure construction projects and the provinces' 
overall social and economic development. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Internet news media, however, speculated that the 
visits are the beginning of the president's reelection 
campaign.  Independent internet reports point to the 
conspicuous absence of major local personnel changes that 
typically characterize Karimov's visits to the provinces 
(Note: The hokim of Andijon City was replaced July 4, but 
this appears to have been unconnected to the presidential 
visit.  End Note.)  According to NBCentral Asia, Karimov's 
trips have been dominated to an unusual degree by populist 
events apparently designed to improve the president's public 
image.  The website "Muslim Uzbekistan" theorizes that 
Karimov is seeking to gauge the political mood of the 
countryside and bolster his popularity before proposing 
changes to Uzbek election law that would allow him to serve 
another term.  (Comment: Uzbekistan's Constitution requires 
that changes to the basic election law, such as one allowing 
the President to run for a third term, must be made "within 
six-months of the election and following 
wide discussion."  In the opinion of at least one local 
lawyer, this provision easily can be interpreted as allowing 
changes to the Constitution and the basic law right up until 
the election itself.  End Comment.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) President Karimov was elected to a second term in 
office on January 9, 2000.  The Uzbek Constitution currently 
limits Presidents to two seven-year terms (ref A). 
Nevertheless, most credible Uzbekistan watchers believe 
Karimov intends to remain in office.  Speculation is rife as 
to how Karimov may plan to portray his retention of power as 
being in conformity with the Uzbek Constitution; many 
observers believe that an amendment to the Constitution 
allowing the President to run for additional terms is the 
most likely scenario (ref B).  Others believe a court or 
Parliamentary determination may be made interpreting the 
referendum and Constitution change extending the President's 
term from five to seven years as also somehow setting back 
the clock on the number of terms, allowing Karimov to run, in 
effect, for a third term, but, in name, as a first term under 
the new extended term decided in 2000. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment: Karimov's tour looks to us like a 
pre-election tour designed to remind people of his successes 
as President of Uzbekistan.  Interestingly, Karimov mostly 
 
TASHKENT 00001405  002 OF 002 
 
 
chose to visit regions of the country that he travels to less 
frequently, indicating perhaps that he is unsure of his 
support in those regions.  As "Muslim Uzbekistan" speculates, 
Karimov may seek to amend the Constitution to allow him to 
seek reelection, possibly by abolishing term limits 
altogether.  We might therefore expect an amendment of the 
term-limits law to be introduced and adopted by the Oliy 
Majlis sometime before September 23, the date when, according 
to the Constitution, some announcement on the Presidential 
elections, expected December 23, must be made.  Karimov would 
likely announce his candidacy soon afterward.  In other 
scenarios, another referendum may be held on extending his 
current term as President, a court ruling or Parliamentary 
resolution made interpreting away the two-term limit, or the 
Parliament may seek to anoint him as "President for Life." 
HANSON