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P 010702Z AUG 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6208
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 7081
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 8801
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 8959
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU PRIORITY 2009
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU PRIORITY 0433
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG PRIORITY 8328
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI PRIORITY 1255
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG PRIORITY 5979
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001711 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2032 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE, UN 
REFERENDUM, AND MA VISIT TO THE U.S. 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  DPP vice-presidential hopefuls Yeh Chu-lan 
and Su Tseng-chang are both formidable opponents, and either 
would help DPP presidential candidate close the gap with KMT 
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, KMT Chairman Wu 
Po-hsiung told the Director on July 27.  However, the KMT is 
more united at this point in the campaign than Wu and others 
had expected, enabling the KMT to put its full strength 
behind campaign tactics like a UN referendum of their own. 
The KMT does not want its referendum to pass, Wu explained, 
but instead hopes to dilute public support for the DPP 
referendum on joining the UN as "Taiwan."  Wu expressed 
concern that Ma's next visit to the U.S. must rival the 
success of his last; otherwise, it would appear to Taiwan 
that U.S. support for Ma is dwindling.  DIR assured both men 
that the USG would remain impartial and treat both candidates 
equally.  The KMT remains worried that DPP campaign cries for 
"Taiwan identity" will trump the KMT's emphasis on practical 
economic concerns.  Wu predicted that China will sit tight 
during this election to avoid branding Ma as Beijing's 
favorite.  End Summary. 
 
Both Potential DPP V-P Candidates Will Boost Hsieh 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (C) KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung, accompanied by Vice 
Chairman John Kuan (Kuan Chung) and Amb. Steven Chen, told 
DIR on July 27 that DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh 
(Chang-ting) will likely choose former premier Su Tseng-chang 
or former vice premier Yeh Chu-lan as his vice-presidential 
running mate.  Both are formidable opponents, who will bring 
different strengths to the DPP ticket.  Yeh is female and an 
ethnic Hakka.  Her gender will mean little to most voters, Wu 
predicted, but as a Hakka she will certainly help Hsieh 
attract Hakka voters in Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli 
counties.  Hakka voters in these three counties typically 
back KMT candidates two-to-one over their DPP opponents, Wu 
continued, but if Yeh joins Hsieh's ticket, Hakka voters 
could split almost evenly between the two parties.  For his 
part, Su has established himself as an expert administrator 
in Pingtung and Taipei counties, where he remains very 
popular.  For these reasons, Wu worried that Su could sap 
large numbers of voters from the Ma-Siew ticket, even in 
traditionally "Blue" counties like Taipei. 
 
KMT Referendum A Means, Not An End 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Wu told the DIR that, despite lingering personal 
conflicts between certain party leaders (e.g. Ma and LY 
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng), the KMT is "more unified" in its 
opposition to "DPP campaign tactics" than expected at this 
point in the legislative and presidential campaigns.  KMT 
party leaders, he said, fully understood that the DPP is 
using its UN referendum to promote "Taiwan identity" and to 
draw Green voters to the polls.  In response, KMT leaders 
further agree that the best strategy is to dilute support for 
the DPP referendum by offering voters a KMT alternative. 
Although the KMT does not actually want any of the proposed 
referenda, including its own, to pass, party leaders felt the 
KMT could not let the DPP referendum go unchallenged.  Voters 
will support the DPP or KMT version, but not both, Wu 
asserted, increasing the likelihood that neither will pass. 
DIR told Chairman Wu that the US supports Taiwan's democracy, 
but wished to avoid actions which could damage US-PRC-Taiwan 
relations.  Wu stressed that the KMT continues to view the 
U.S. as Taiwan's most important political, economic and 
military ally, and urged the USG to view the KMT referendum 
as consonant with U.S. efforts to keep Taiwan's democratic 
process from touching on sensitive sovereignty-related 
matters. 
 
KMT Concerned About Lukewarm US Reception For Ma? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (C) Noting the success of then-KMT Chairman Ma's visit to 
the U.S. in March 2006, Amb. Chen sought assurances from DIR 
that Ma would enjoy an equally warm reception should he visit 
the U.S. this fall.  Taiwan voters will certainly compare the 
two visits, Chen explained, and would interpret a less 
 
TAIPEI 00001711  002 OF 002 
 
 
enthusiastic reception as a sign of waning U.S. support for 
Ma.  Chen insisted that Ma must "at least outshine Frank 
Hsieh," who returned to Taiwan from the U.S. on July 30.  DIR 
responded that the USG strives to treat Taiwan's presidential 
candidates equally, and that Ma is welcome to visit the U.S. 
if he wishes to do so.  But the USG could not guarantee in 
advance who would be available to meet with Ma during his 
visit, due to the demands of other pressing issues.  (Note: 
The specific quarrel centered around the Deputy Secretary of 
State's availability.  End Note.) 
 
Campaign Is Head-vs-Heart Struggle 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) This presidential election pits the KMT's promise of 
economic recovery against the DPP's promise of a greater 
"Taiwan identity," Wu explained.  Vice-Chairman John Kuan 
explained that KMT leaders are worried that the DPP's 
"emotional" appeal could trump the KMT's "rational" appeal to 
their pocketbooks.  DIR asked how the Ma campaign responds to 
the DPP challenge on "identity."  Wu insisted that Ma had 
responded to each of the DPP's recent salvos, but he claimed 
the press had not been giving these responses the attention 
they deserved.  Ma has the harder job of explaining how a 
common market with China might work, Wu argued, while Hsieh 
and the DPP need only to equate it with "One China" to poison 
many voters against the idea. 
 
KMT Ranks are Increasingly Taiwanese, But Leaders Aren't 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶6. (C) DIR then asked whether the KMT had become "Taiwanese" 
enough to appeal to Taiwan's centrist voters.  Wu, a 
Taiwan-born Hakka, replied that one's status as a 
"mainlander" or "Taiwanese" was no longer important to one's 
eligibility for leadership positions within the party.  KMT 
membership demographics increasingly resemble those of 
Taiwan's general population, Wu continued, with similar 
proportions of "mainlanders" and "Taiwanese." Nonetheless, 
most of the KMT's most prominent leaders are mainlanders, Wu 
conceded, a fact which the DPP continues to exploit during 
elections. 
 
PRC Will Keep Its Mouth Shut 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) What is the PRC's current attitude toward Taiwan, DIR 
asked, particularly toward President Chen?  Wu asserted that 
Chinese President Hu Jintao is facing internal political 
pressures because Chen has already crossed several of the 
Anti-Secession Law's red lines with impunity.  Nevertheless, 
Hu and others in the PRC leadership understand that reacting 
too harshly to Chen will only strengthen the position of Chen 
and the DPP, to the detriment of Ma and the KMT.  Beijing 
will continue efforts to avoid showing any clear preference 
for Ma, or opposition to Hsieh, Wu predicted, to avoid 
helping the DPP or undermining Ma's presidential chances. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C)  Typically, Taiwan presidential candidates from both 
parties want to visit the U.S. because it gives them a chance 
to burnish their international credentials and to communicate 
directly with the USG.  But the KMT leadership, perhaps Ma 
himself, seems more interested in damage control -- keeping 
Ma from anything that might negatively affect his campaign. 
This suggests that they are worried over the U.S. reaction to 
the KMT's own UN referendum proposal, and are hoping to 
ensure a positive program before committing to the trip.  We 
will continue to respond that the U.S. aims at general 
parity, but will not succumb to a priori "guarantees" about 
the level of meetings or the agenda. 
YOUNG