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R 141331Z AUG 07
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5017
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS 3906
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0924
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000664 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2022 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNFICYP CY TU
SUBJECT: PAPADOPOULOS CONFIDENT ON RE-ELECTION PROSPECTS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher, Reason 1.4 (b) 
 
¶1.  (C) During the course of a visit to Cypriot President 
Tassos Papadopoulos and his family at their beach house in 
Protoras, Ambassador asked Papadopoulos for his thoughts on 
the looming campaign.  Papadopoulos,s first reply was that 
"of the three of us, I think that my chances are best, 
because the other two have already reached their maximum in 
their ability to appeal to voters outside their party bases." 
 Papadopoulos added that AKEL's Christofias and DISY's 
Kasoulides were doing relatively well in energizing their 
respective party bases and creating "syspirosi8 (i.e., 
organizational elan and enthusiasm), but that a high degree 
of "syspirosi" within these large parties actually hindered 
their ability to attract votes outside these "clubs". 
 
¶2.  (C) Papadopoulos then commented that he thought he would 
be able to hive off a significant percentage of AKEL voters, 
though he acknowledged that the current polling did not augur 
well in this respect; AKEL has a vocal "so-called peace 
camp", said Papadopoulos, but this camp is much smaller than 
the large segments of the rank-and-file who actually support 
Papadopoulos's Cyprus policy.  He predicted that, in the 
coming months, we would see significant AKEL defections 
toward his candidacy; while some such defections may be 
high-profile, there would be many more in the privacy of the 
voting booth in February.  Papadopoulos also predicted that 
he would pick up some DISY votes as well, not so much because 
these voters liked him or his policy, but rather due to 
internal jostlings inside DISY: "Just imagine", said 
Papadopoulos, "Kasoulides,s campaign manager (DISY deputy 
chair Averof Neophytou) is well-known as the person who tried 
hardest to make sure that Kasoulides was not the party's 
candidate."  At the same time, continued Papadopoulos, his 
own DIKO party would be strongly united, and defections 
within his electoral ally EDEK would be minimal. 
 
¶3.  (C) Papadopoulos did not explicitly put the UN-led July 8 
process in the context of the presidential campaign, but did 
say that Turkish and Turkish Cypriot stalling on Cyprob 
diplomacy worked to his political benefit.  "When they send 
the impression that somebody else would give them a better 
deal, what message does this give the Greeks (note: by which 
he means Greek Cypriots)?  And when they talk endlessly of 
the Annan Plan, they remind the Greeks of the many 
fundamental things that the Greeks hated about the Plan." 
 
¶4.  (C) Ambassador noted to Papadopoulos that we are trying 
to make sure that the U.S. is not the focus of the 
presidential campaign; in particular, we want to avoid 
encouraging or being dragged into the debate.  We would look 
strongly negatively on any candidate who seeks to campaign 
against us, though we will try not to rise to the bait that 
might be dangled in the next six months.  Such campaigning, 
continued the Ambassador, would be a clear substitute for a 
debate on political ideas actually aimed at facilitating 
reunification of the island.  Ambassador, noting that he was 
making the same points to all electoral camps, strongly hoped 
for a campaign in which the three candidates sought to 
discuss their ideas of where to go in and after 2008, not who 
voted "yes" and who voted "no" in 2004, or who did what to 
whom in 1974 or 1963.  Papadopoulos in reply addressed one of 
the Ambassador's points by declaring that he had no intention 
of running against Washington; on the contrary, he was often 
attacked by the opposition for being too close to the 
Americans via his support for the Proliferation Security 
Initiative (PSI), counter-terrorism cooperation, etc. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  Papadopoulos is tanned, rested, and ready 
for the campaign.  Despite several reports that suggest that 
his in-house polling shows that he will have significant 
trouble hiving off enough voters from the largest parties to 
make it into the second round, Papadopoulos's confidence did 
not seem feigned.  Our guess is that Papadopoulos is still 
betting that he is more clever and adept than his opponents, 
and, more fundamentally, that he will somehow be able to 
"nationalize" the campaign in a manner that turns what should 
be a debate about the future course of the Cyprus problem 
into a re-hash of  the "yes" and "no" of the 2004 referendum. 
 End comment. 
SCHLICHER