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FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
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RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0035
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 7620

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTERREY 000775 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT, PLEASE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ETRD ECON SOCI MX
SUBJECT: NUEVO LEON PRD REJECTS PRESIDENT CALDERON AND SUPPORTS 
LEGITIMATE' PRESIDENT AMLO 
 
REF: A. A) 2006 MONTERREY 963 
 
     ¶B. B) 2006 MONTERREY 989 
 
MONTERREY 00000775  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY.  Representing the hard-line faction of the 
PRD, Nuevo Leon party leaders continue to reject President 
Calderon as illegitimate, refuse to work with President 
Calderon, plan to denounce Calderon at his September 1 State of 
the Union address, and focus their efforts on recruiting local 
representatives for the "legitimate government" of Andres Manuel 
Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the losing PRD Presidential candidate in 
the 2006 elections.  The State Committee President, Socorro 
Cesenas, sharply criticized Nuevo Leon Governor Natividad 
Gonzalez as a self-interested, corrupt, and illegitimate 
governor who has done little to alleviate rural poverty in the 
state while spending millions of dollars on the upcoming 
Universal Forum on Cultures.  Cesenas was also critical of the 
United States, and claims that AMLO will put a stop to the final 
implementation of NAFTA in 2008.  The PRD has little influence 
in Nuevo Leon, and given the state's relative wealth and the 
PRD's isolationist perspective, it is hard to imagine this PRD 
party making much headway into Nuevo Leon.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  The PRI and PAN parties are both competitive in Nuevo 
Leon elections, and normally the PRD is not a factor.  However, 
due to AMLO's popularity, the PRD received 16% of the vote in 
the 2006 Presidential election, significantly ahead of the 8% 
vote for PRD Senators and 9% for PRD Diputados.  Although the 
local PRD could have used the vote as a platform to build a 
majority, they instead just denounced the 2006 elections, and 
anecdotal evidence from average PRD voters in 2006 indicated 
that they were turned-off by the PRD's demonstrations in Mexico 
City and its refusal to accept the lost election.  Poloff met 
with the Nuevo Leon PRD President to determine if the PRD had 
changed its stance. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
RECRUITING FOR THE "LEGITIMATE" GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  The local PRD remains trapped in July 2006 elections 
results, and rather than deal with President Calderon, they 
instead pursue AMLO's quixotic quest to be the "legitimate" 
President.  On August 7 Poloff met with Socorro Cesenas Chapa, 
President of the Nuevo Leon PRD State Committee, who reported 
that the local PRD party is stepping-up its efforts to recruit 
state representatives for the "legitimate government" of Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).  The local AMLO-government 
representatives would serve the legitimate presidency by 
fighting for social justice through monitoring local 
municipalities' public spending.  (Note.  Cesenas has appeared 
several times in local newspapers condemning the public debt 
accrued by Monterrey's PAN Mayor Adalberto Madero.  End Note.) 
On August 9, local newspapers reported that Bernardo Batiz, the 
former Attorney General of Mexico City, was visiting Monterrey 
to encourage local citizens to officially ally themselves with 
AMLO's alternative government.  El Norte, Monterrey's leading 
daily, reported that PRD officials expect that up to 14,000 
residents of Nuevo Leon will sign up, and that some 28,000 will 
be official AMLO-government representatives by 2009. 
Registration stations have been set-up in ten of Nuevo Leon's 
municipalities and will operate from August 9 through the 
weekend ending August 12.  To register, citizens must present 
their electoral credentials, have their photos taken, and sign a 
letter promising "to defend national sovereignty, to defend the 
national heritage, and fight for better social justice and 
redistribution of the nation's wealth."  According to Cesenas, 
the registration stations are being funded by "the bank account 
set-up by AMLO's Cabinet."  (Note.  There is no evidence of such 
a mass movement to support these claims.  End Note.) 
 
----------------------------------------- 
CALDERON'S ILLEGITIMACY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  When asked by Poloff about her party's views on 
President Calderon's performance, Cesenas responded sharply that 
she would not comment on the illegitimate President's time in 
office, and proceeded to tell Poloff exactly how and why the 
2006 Presidential election was a sham.  She also said that the 
PRD would not sit and listen to President Calderon's first 
"informe" (state-of-the-union address equivalent) scheduled for 
September 1 because it would be "imposed on us.  If we want to 
listen to an informe, we will listen to AMLO's."  Cesenas said 
that she was traveling to Mexico City on August 8 to meet with 
other party leaders to discuss the new proposed format for the 
President's annual address, which for the first-time would 
 
MONTERREY 00000775  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
include a multi-party debate following the informe.  Cesenas 
said that the PRD would never agree to this, unless it gave them 
the opportunity to denounce Calderon publicly as the 
illegitimate President of Mexico.  (Note.  On August 9, local 
newspapers reported that the PRD had agreed to the new 
informe/debate format and that Juan Guerra, the PRD's 
vice-coordinator in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, was asking 
his party to accept the agreement, not as a demonstration of 
Calderon's legitimacy, but rather to look at it as an 
opportunity to say that he is not the legitimate President of 
Mexico.  End note.) 
 
¶5.  (U)  When asked whether the PRD would work with Calderon to 
find a mutually-agreeable fiscal reform policy, Cesenas said 
that the AMLO-alternative government (and likewise the PRD) has 
its own neoliberal fiscal reform agenda that does not involve 
expanding the value-added tax (IVA) base or creating a CETU-like 
tax, but rather increases income taxes for the rich to 
redistribute wealth to the poor.  When asked how the AMLO 
alternative government would propose redistributing wealth, 
Cesenas responded with generalities, noting that the key is 
creating more jobs and guaranteeing access to good education and 
health care for all Mexican citizens. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
SHARP CRITICISM OF NUEVO LEON GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  (U)  In addition to PAN President Calderon, Cesenas also 
sees PRI Nuevo Leon Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras as an 
illegitimate and corrupt governor.  Cesenas explained that she 
believes that Nuevo Leon's 2003 gubernatorial election was 
fraudulently conducted and that Monterrey's 2006 mayoral 
election, won by PAN's Adalberto Madero, was fraudulent.  When 
asked if there were any recent elections results that she 
supported, she pointed to the two Nuevo Leon municipalities in 
which PRD candidates were "fairly" elected as mayors. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Governor Gonzalez, she claims, has also done very 
little to alleviate rural poverty in Nuevo Leon.  Speaking 
mainly of the two Nuevo Leon municipalities governed by PRD 
mayors, Cesenas said that Gonzalez's government, in cahoots with 
the PAN-lead state congress, cut rural municipalities' budgets 
by upwards of 50%, effectively halting any real economic 
development in those towns.  Cesenas added that the Nuevo Leon 
Secretary of Economic Development was not doing enough to 
 
SIPDIS 
attract investment and create jobs in the poorest parts of Nuevo 
Leon.   She also said that any illegal immigration to the U.S. 
from rural parts of Nuevo Leon is due to the negligence of the 
Gonzalez government because "if people don't believe that their 
government is helping them, supporting them, and creating jobs 
and schools and hospitals for them, they will leave." 
 
¶8.  (U)  Cesenas also spoke about the Universal Forum of 
Cultures, the Governor's pet project which will begin in 
September.  Cesenas said that, while she did not disagree in 
principal with the idea of hosting a cultural forum to discuss 
issues like diversity, peace, and environmental protection, she 
thought that Nuevo Leon had higher priorities.  She delighted in 
the fact that the controversy surrounding the Forum and its 
financing has damaged the Governor's credibility and popularity. 
 
--------------------------------- 
THE EVIL U.S. EMPIRE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U)  The problem with the United States, claimed Cesenas, is 
that the U.S. is too self-interested and that the Calderon 
government is too weak to stand up to the USG.   Further, she 
claims that the AMLO-alternative government will not allow the 
final provisions of NAFTA to go through in 2008, when tariffs on 
corn and beans are phased out, because poor Mexican farmers will 
be devastated.  When questioned by Poloff about exactly how this 
would happen, Cesenas did not have an answer, and merely said 
that NAFTA needed to be completely renegotiated with the United 
States. 
 
¶10.  (U)  Cesenas also spoke about the remittances that come 
into Mexico from legal and illegal workers in the U.S.  She said 
that the workers are abused in the U.S. and that the United 
States doesn't care, so long as its produce is picked on time. 
The only one who cares about this issue, she claims, is AMLO, 
whose government is working to create jobs so that Mexicans 
don't have to leave their homes to go find work in a country 
that treats them badly.  Cesenas said that the AMLO alternative 
 
MONTERREY 00000775  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
government will not ally itself with a country like the United 
States that does not believe in peace, justice, and prosperity. 
Cesenas told Poloff not to be surprised by upcoming protests 
staged by the Nuevo Leon PRD Committee against the United 
States, especially where NAFTA, immigration and the U.S.-led war 
in Iraq are concerned. 
 
--------------- 
COMMENT 
--------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  COMMENT.  Since PRD could barely offer token 
demonstrations in the aftermath of the controversial 2006 
elections (see reftels), it seems very unlikely that they can 
actually recruit local representatives for the "legitimate" 
President AMLO or hold the planned demonstrations.  The real 
question is why the PRD has chosen such a hardliner to represent 
them in a moderate state, undermining any possibility for the 
PRD to make lasting political gains.  The interview also 
provides a window into the hard-line PRD mindset, and the 
difficulties that the national PRD party may have bringing along 
all its members to a constructive relationship with President 
Calderon.  END COMMENT. 
WILLIAMSON