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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000983 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR USTR (WJACKSON) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2017 
TAGS: OTRA PREL SADC ZA
SUBJECT: COMESA LEADERS SHARE VIEWS ON THE SADC SUMMIT, 
ZIMBABWE, AND COMESA SUCCESSORSHIP 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 963 
 
     ¶B. LUSAKA 945 
     ¶C. NAIROBI 3021 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  On August 28, Common Market for Eastern and 
Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat leaders shared their 
views with Ambassador Martinez on the challenges of 
overlapping customs unions, expressed skepticism regarding 
SADC's "economic rescue plan" for Zimbabwe, and suggested 
that Mugabe's offer to host the 2008 COMESA Summit (and take 
up the COMESA Chair) presents COMESA with some organizational 
difficulties. They also discussed leadership changes at 
COMESA, in particular the appointment of a new Secretary 
General in May 2008.  End Summary. 
 
--------------- 
COMESA AND SADC 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (C)  On August 28, Ambassador Martinez met individually 
with COMESA Assistant Secretary General Nagla El-Hussainy and 
Acting Secretary General Sindiso Ngwenya to follow up on 
Ngwenya's recent visits to the U.S. and to inquire into 
future leadership changes at COMESA.  Ambassador Martinez 
asked whether COMESA's customs union, which it intends to 
establish in 2008, will conflict with other regional 
organizations' economic integration plans and whether COMESA 
Member States who belong to the Southern African Development 
Community (SADC) will eventually have to choose between the 
two organizations.  Ngwenya said that COMESA would make every 
effort to harmonize its customs union with those of SADC and 
the East African Community (EAC).  He mentioned the 
possibility of a tripartite summit between COMESA, SADC, and 
the EAC to coordinate integration procedures, but suggested 
that not all COMESA Member States wholly support customs 
union harmonization, pointing specifically to Tanzania. 
 
¶3. (C) On his own accord, Ngwenya (a Zimbabwean national) 
brought up the issue of Zimbabwe's instability.  He said that 
he had not seen a copy of the SADC Executive Secretary's 
report on the economic situation in Zimbabwe that was 
presented to SADC leaders at the recently concluded SADC 
Heads of State Summit (Refs A and B), nor the SADC leaders' 
"economic rescue plan," but said that he would try to obtain 
an "unofficial" copy.  He speculated that SADC intervention 
would not be sufficient to "save" Zimbabwe from its problems, 
and that other SADC Member States were not in a 
position--financially or politically--to offer much 
assistance.  He said that SADC leaders had "played into 
Mugabe's hand," by offering a plan that they could not 
deliver and that would shift responsibility from Mugabe to 
his SADC counterparts.  "Whatever you think of Mugabe, 
whether good or bad, he is a shrewd politician," Ngwenya 
commented. 
 
----------------- 
COMESA AND MUGABE 
----------------- 
 
¶4. (C) El-Hussainy admitted that the May 2008 COMESA Summit 
in Harare would be difficult to organize, given the shortage 
of food, fuel, and other materials in Zimbabwe, but said that 
her Zimbabwean colleagues were confident that they would have 
the capability and resources to host the Summit successfully. 
 When asked whether she shared that confidence, El-Hussainy 
shrugged her shoulders helplessly.  "What can we do?  We are 
just the Secretariat.  We have no choice."  She explained 
that during the COMESA Summit in Nairobi last May, Mugabe had 
volunteered to host the 2008 meetings.  "No one opposed!" 
El-Hussainy exclaimed astonishingly.  Al-Hussainy also 
explained that the Summit host serves as the Vice-Chair in 
the year preceding the Summit, the Chair in the year 
following it, and the Rapporteur in the year thereafter. 
Consequently, Zimbabwe will be Vice-Chair until May 2008, 
Chair from May 2008 to May 2009, and Rapporteur from May 2009 
to May 2010. 
 
 
LUSAKA 00000983  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (C) El-Hussainy expressed her hope that Mugabe's 
leadership role in COMESA not damage ongoing U.S.-COMESA 
cooperation.  She described Mugabe's functions within SADC as 
"mostly ceremonial."  Ambassador Martinez recommended that 
Mugabe be dissuaded from ranting on as he did in Nairobi (Ref 
C), turning the COMESA meetings into an opportunity to blame 
others for his leadership failures.  El-Hussainy acknowledged 
the possibility that Mugabe may try to use the 2008 Summit to 
his own political advantage, when 18 Heads of State and 
Government visit Harare as his guests.  (Comment:  One 
concern is that Mugabe might use the COMESA forum to 
establish his legitimacy, if he continues in office beyond 
the Zimbabwean presidential elections in March 2008.  End 
Comment.) 
 
---------------------------------- 
COMESA AND A NEW SECRETARY GENERAL 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) El-Hussainy told Ambassador Martinez that COMESA 
Member States will choose a new Secretary General to replace 
Erastus Mwencha, whose term finishes in May 2008.  The 
decision will fall to select COMESA Integration/Trade 
Ministers, who will over the next several months interview 
the two candidates:  Mwencha's deputy, Sindiso Ngwenya, and 
Rwanda's Minister of Public Service, Skills, Development, and 
Labor, Manasseh Nshuti.  She noted that four applicants had 
applied for Ngwenya's position of Assistant Secretary 
General, which will open up at the same time, including 
COMESA's Director of Legal Affairs, Stephen Karangizi, a 
Ugandan national.  Ngwenya told the Ambassador that although 
the appointments would be made at the 2008 Summit in Harare, 
the decision would be unofficially made public by December 
¶2007.  Ngwenya said he hoped more candidates would apply for 
the Secretary General position because "competition is always 
healthy." 
 
¶7. (C) Comment.  Although COMESA intends to coordinate 
closely with SADC to establish compatible customs unions, 
COMESA's economic integration plans are much further 
developed; SADC intends to launch its customs union in 2010, 
two years after COMESA.  El-Hussainy recently told EmbOff, 
however, that SADC is "five years behind COMESA."  Given 
SADC's planning lag, it will be difficult for the two 
organizations to even discuss harmonization.  In practice, 
"harmonization" may not occur until 2009/2010, when SADC 
attempts to conform with an existing COMESA customs union. 
We are impressed by COMESA's steady focus and ambitious 
efforts to achieve economic growth.  COMESA is likely to 
continue to press for USG aid-for-trade assistance, 
particularly during forthcoming meetings in Washington in 
October.  We are also confident that whether it be Nshuti or 
Ngwenya that takes the helm in March 2008, COMESA should 
continue to enjoy strong and non-partisan leadership. 
MARTINEZ