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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002098 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017 
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PINR BL
SUBJECT: FOUR VIEWS OF THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AND BEYOND 
 
REF: LA PAZ 1619 
 
Classified By: Acting Ecopol Counselor Brian Quigley 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) From July 18-24, Emboff met with four Constituent 
Assembly (CA) members representing different political 
parties.  PODEMOS delegate Gamal Serhan Jaldin of Cochabamba 
argued that there is a real threat that the eastern (lowland) 
departments will seek separation from the western (altiplano) 
departments if their demands for departmental autonomy are 
not met.  He also shared that the opposition is looking to 
put forward a unified candidate should there be a 2008 
presidential election, and that PODEMOS leader Jorge "Tuto" 
Quiroga is willing to step-aside for the cause.  Serhan 
mentioned he preferred to see Potosi Mayor, Rene Joaquino, a 
frequently mentioned presidential candidate, run for prefect 
of Potosi, thus allowing the opposition to control another 
department.  Fridolino Duran, who represents the licit 
coca-growing region of the Yungas, and who is a member of the 
tiny AYRA party -- a party once affiliated with the MAS in 
the CA -- stated he has grown frustrated with the MAS over 
its coca policy and the GOB's closeness to Havana and Caracas. 
 
¶2. (C) Loyola Viuda de Guzman, a MAS delegate, described the 
differences between the MAS and PODEMOS over homosexual 
rights and "right to life."  The MAS supports gay rights in 
the broader context of civil rights, but Guzman stressed her 
party does not have a "homosexual agenda" (e.g. the promotion 
of gay marriage).  Neither MAS nor PODEMOS is pro-choice, 
however PODEMOS has a more conservative position stating that 
conception should be considered the starting point for life. 
While the CA consists of many delegates with greater 
political aspirations, of the four delegates Emboff spoke 
with, Jaldin was the most politically savvy with a potential 
for a future in politics after the CA, possibly as mayor of 
Cochabamba.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
A Two State Solution vs. Pact Politics 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) On July 23, Emboff met with CA member Gamal Serhan 
Jaldin, who represents Cochabamba city. Serhan, a member of 
PODEMOS, sits on the Vision for the Country Commission, the 
CA's most polemical commission.  Serhan confirmed press 
reports that commission president Felix Cardenas -- a member 
of CN, a small party closely affiliated with the MAS -- is 
the hardliner who has blocked the commission from issuing a 
true minority report, reftel.  (Note: On July 30, MAS 
delegates in the Vision commission appeared to have finally 
backed down and have allowed PODEMOS' report to become the 
official minority report.  End Note). Serhan characterized 
his commission as a microcosm of the CA, since essentially 
all issues are debated in his commission. 
 
¶4. (C) Serhan discussed two possible outcomes for the CA, one 
in which the CA fails and leads to the possible division of 
the country, the second in which the MAS and PODEMOS reach a 
pact.  Serhan believes that there is real possibility that 
the eastern (lowland) departments will seek separation from 
the west (altiplano) departments if their demands for 
departmental autonomy are not met.  When queried about his 
department of Cochabamba, Serhan acknowledged that it would 
likely be the scene of violent confrontations since the 
department is divided between pro-GOB and anti-GOB 
supporters.  Serhan then offered the alternative scenario in 
which PODEMOS cedes on the issue of multiple presidential 
re-elections in return for the MAS giving on departmental 
autonomy. 
 
¶5. (C) Serhan probed Emboff regarding the Embassy's view on 
the CA and more importantly how the USG would respond to a 
true separation of east and west Bolivia.  Serhan wanted to 
know if the USG is contemplating a response (i.e., conducting 
scenario planning exercises) and whether the USG would 
support a "two-state" solution.  Emboff explained that the 
USG has one policy, to support a unified Bolivia. 
 
¶6. (C) Serhan also provided his views on next year's 
elections (assuming the CA succeeds).  Serhan explained that 
PODEMOS supports the idea of a unified opposition 
presidential candidate, but stated he didn't know who that 
candidate might be. He did explain that PODEMOS leader Jorge 
"Tuto" Quiroga is inclined to step aside and support the 
eventual unified candidate.  Serhan mentioned he preferred to 
see Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino, a frequently mentioned 
presidential candidate, run for prefect of Potosi, thus 
allowing the opposition to control another department. 
Serhan explained that in his home department, PODEMOS will 
likely support current prefect Manfred Reyes Villa, even 
though Reyes is not a member of PODEMOS.  He offered that 
although Reyes is tainted and vulnerable, he is the only 
alternative for the opposition.  Serhan mentioned that lower 
house president and MAS deputy Edmundo Novillo would be a 
formidable opponent for Prefect Reyes.  Finally, Serhan 
explained that he is interested in running for mayor of 
Cochabamba city.  He noted that current mayor Gonzalo Tercero 
is vulnerable, citing his alleged support for MAS militants 
during the January violence in Cochabamba city. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
An Insider's View of the Coca Commission 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) On July 18 Emboff met with CA member Fridolino Duran 
who represents the licit coca-growing region of the Yungas. 
Duran is a member of the AYRA party, a tiny party with just 
two members in the CA.  He serves on the coca commission, the 
first commission to issue its formal report, and one of the 
few commissions to have reached consensus.  At the CA's 
inception AYRA members announced that they would ally 
themselves with the majority Movement Towards Socialism 
(MAS).  Duran explained that while he and his party share 
many of the MAS' goals for greater social inclusion, he has 
become disillusioned with the MAS.  Duran appears to have 
lost faith in the MAS for two reasons, the party's close ties 
to Venezuela and Cuba and its coca policy.  He explained that 
his supporters (and Bolivians in general) do not want a 
socialist state, and many are leery of Caracas' and Havana's 
involvement in Bolivia. 
 
¶8. (C) On coca, Duran explained that during the commission's 
early meetings, the MAS proposed expanding legal growing 
areas into Bolivia's Amazon region, or essentially the entire 
country.  According to Duran, he argued vigorously within the 
commission that growing coca outside of the traditional (and 
legally established) growing areas was bad for Bolivia in 
that it would increase narco-trafficking and would put at 
risk international assistance.  Duran stated that he 
threatened to break with the majority if it did not 
relinquish their coca expansion plans.  When his MAS 
colleagues refused to back down, Duran explained that he 
organized a group from the Yungas to protest outside the CA. 
Eventually, according to Duran, the protests succeeded in 
changing the MAS' position. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment: Duran's coca commission anecdote provides yet 
another example of Yungas coca-growers challenging the MAS, 
to retain their monopoly on legal coca cultivation.  Duran 
may also have been portraying himself in a positive light to 
line up USG assistance.  He closed the meeting with a request 
for Embassy assistance in establishing a community radio 
station to counter the MAS' propaganda machine.  End Comment. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Two Views on the Commission on Rights and Guarantees 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶10. (C) Emboff separately met with Dr. Jaime Hurtado Poveda, 
the president of the Commission on Rights and Guarantees, as 
well as commission member Loyola Viuda de Guzman.  Dr. 
Hurtado is a member of the opposition party PODEMOS, while 
Ms. Guzman represents the MAS.  The commission issued 
majority (MAS) and minority (PODEMOS) reports because the two 
parties could not reach consensus on a few issues.  Dr. 
Hurtado explained that the commission had general agreement 
on most issues, except on the concept of "right to life." 
The president explained that his party supports a right to 
life starting at conception. 
 
¶11. (C) Ms. Guzman concurred with Dr. Hurtado's analysis that 
right to life was a dividing issue, but added that homosexual 
rights also separated the MAS and PODEMOS.  Guzman explained 
that the MAS supports Bolivia's current concept of right to 
life which bans abortion, but does not establish conception 
as the standard for life.  Guzman stated that PODEMOS opposes 
homosexual rights, while the MAS simply wants to incorporate 
them into the new constitution to reflect reality, that 
homosexuals exist within Bolivia society.  She went on to 
state the MAS does not have a "homosexual agenda" (for 
example the promotion of gay marriage), only that the party 
believes that discrimination against homosexuals must not be 
tolerated. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Views on Moving the Capital to Sucre 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶12. (C) Dr. Hurtado, a native of Sucre and a strong supporter 
of moving the executive and legislative branch to his home 
town, explained the arguments behind moving the capital from 
La Paz.  Hurtado first outlined the standard arguments for 
re-establishing Sucre as the seat of the three branches of 
government.  Hurtado explained that Sucre is seen as a more 
neutral location between the two mega-regions of the country 
(the lowland east and the altiplano west) that are currently 
in dispute.  He mentioned that locating the capital closer to 
the emerging economic engine of Tarija is both logical and 
could reduce tensions between Tarija and the central 
government.  He explained the usual historical claim that La 
Paz gained the capital due to the battle between liberals and 
conservatives at the turn of the last century.  Using a twist 
of purely Bolivian logic, Hurtado argued that retaining the 
capital in La Paz would render illegitimate Bolivia's claim 
for access to the Pacific Ocean from Chile.  Hurtado 
explained that if La Paz was allowed to retain the capital 
which it obtained via force, then Bolivia would no longer 
have a moral claim to regain its access to the sea which 
Chile also acquired through force. 
 
--------------------- 
Communitarian Justice 
--------------------- 
 
¶13. (C) Both Dr. Hurtado and Ms. Guzman opined on the 
hot-button issue of communitarian justice.  Hurtado, a 
lawyer, towed his party's line that communitarian justice as 
a parallel form of justice (the MAS proposal) is simply an 
incoherent proposal.  Hurtado offered that he would not 
oppose communitarian justice as a form of arbitration for 
small disputes (misdemeanors) within indigenous communities 
as it is currently practiced.  Guzman, noting communitarian 
justice already exists in some communities, put forward 
essentially the same idea. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Comment ) The Political Future of these Four Delegates 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶14. (C) The CA consists of 255 delegates, many of whom have 
political aspirations beyond the CA.  Of the four delegates, 
Emboff spoke with from July 18-24, Gamal Serhan Jaldin was 
the most politically savvy with a possible future in politics 
after the CA.  Serhan appears to be forming the political 
ties required for a run at the mayorship of Cochabamba. 
Serhan, whose father immigrated to Bolivia from Lebanon, may 
face some difficulties if voters see him as an outsider and 
not "authentically Bolivian."  That said, he was successfully 
elected to the CA.  Duran never overtly stated his political 
aspirations, but clearly is trying to make a name for himself 
(at least) in his native Yungas region.  His request for help 
launching a radio station indicates he has political goals 
beyond the CA.  Dr. Jaime Hurtado Poveda, a lawyer by 
training and leader in the Sucre bar association, did not 
express (or imply) much interest in pursuing politics beyond 
the CA.  Loyola Viuda de Guzman indicated she wanted to 
return to her life's work advocating on behalf of the 
families of those people who disappeared during Bolivia's 
military dictatorships.  End Comment. 
GOLDBERG