VZCZCXRO5741
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHHI #1563/01 2431556
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 311556Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6239
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6970
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 3620
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 001563 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO EAP/MLS AND INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DNG: CO 08/27/2032 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL VM
SUBJECT: DISSIDENT ATTORNEY LE QUOC QUAN HIGHLIGHTS 
CONSERVATIVE, PRO-REFORM STRUGGLE 
 
REF: A. HANOI 1390 
     ¶B. 1360 
     ¶C. 1251 
     ¶D. 1131 
     ¶E. 1550 
 
HANOI 00001563  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Brian Aggeler for Reasons 
 1.4 (b), (c), and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
 
¶1. (S) In an August 24 meeting with PolOffs, dissident 
Attorney Le Quoc Quan discussed the current dominance of 
conservatives in the Vietnamese government and the struggles 
for pro-reformists.  Among those in the pro-reform camp, 
according to Quan, are Vietnam's two new Deputy Prime 
Ministers.  Quan, who is unusually well-connected to 
pro-reform elements in the GVN, said the younger generation 
of generals in the military and security services is more 
likely to resist change and protect the dominant role of the 
Party, partly out of ideology and largely out of 
self-interest.  Quan also discussed his ongoing police 
harassment and regular interrogations, which often focus on 
any relations with the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) 
and the United States-based Vietnam Reform Party (AKA 
"VietTan").  Liberalization of the press is a key to 
encouraging reform, according to Quan.  End Summary. 
 
 
BACKGROUND: A JAILED FASCELL FELLOW 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
¶2. (C) Vietnamese Attorney Le Quoc Quan was a 2006-2007 
Reagan-Fascell Fellow, sponsored by the National Endowment 
for Democracy (NED).  He spent more than four months in the 
United States conducting research on civil society, democracy 
and legal issues.  Upon his return to Vietnam in March 2007, 
he was arrested and imprisoned.  Under significant pressure 
from the USG and Mission Hanoi, Quan was released from 
detention in June 2007 (Ref. D).  He remains "under 
investigation," a form of house arrest with ongoing police 
surveillance, and is subject to re-arrest at anytime.  In 
addition, he has been disbarred and cannot earn a living as 
an attorney.  Despite this, Attorney Quan remains in regular 
contact with the Embassy Political Section and is active in 
the underground democracy movement in Vietnam.  A legal 
expert, Attorney Quan is fighting his disbarment and remains 
in regular contact with the Hanoi Bar Association.  According 
to Quan, many of the Bar's members support him.  Unlike many 
other dissidents who are kept at a safe distance, Quan and 
his wife are able to maintain some contacts with those in 
positions of power in the GVN. 
 
¶3. (C) The preferred mode of communization for Vietnamese 
dissidents is "Skype," (the Voice-over-Internet-Protocol 
system) and "GMAIL" (using an alias), which is reportedly 
more difficult for Ministry of Public Security (MPS) agents 
to hack.  Often-changed cellular phones are also used.  While 
Emboff's August 24 meeting with Le Quoc Quan took place 
unimpeded in a hotel restaurant, an MPS agent followed Quan 
from his home and sat in the distance.  Quan was called in 
for questioning after the last time he met Emboffs (Ref. C), 
and he will likely be called in after this meeting. 
Nevertheless, Quan continues to request meetings with 
Emboffs. 
 
 
GVN SECURITY OBSESSED WITH NED AND THE VIET TAN PARTY 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
¶4. (C) Quan opened the August 24 meeting with PolOffs by 
stating how important it is to maintain direct access to U.S. 
Embassy officials and share information on human rights 
issues of concern.  He mentioned, matter-of-fact, that he had 
been asked to report to a local police station three times 
since a previous meeting with Poloffs in early July (Ref. C). 
 Quan told us that security officials are obsessed with the 
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the time that Quan 
spent back in the States as a NED fellow.  During his 
interrogation sessions with security officials, Quan is often 
asked, "tell us the things that NED showed you to overthrow 
the Vietnamese government?"  Quan said that these officials 
 
HANOI 00001563  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
believe NED intends to use its contacts in Vietnam to 
destabilize the country "like it did in Tianamen Square and 
the color revolutions in Europe."  He added that GVN security 
officials have told him that they "have agents everywhere" 
including people inside NED.  Quan finds this hard to believe 
and asked security officials to elaborate during one of their 
sessions.  According to Quan, all the information discussed 
by security officials can be obtained directly from the NED 
website. 
 
¶5. (C) Quan has been in contact with NED officials back in 
Washington DC, including NED President, Carl Gershwin. 
During a recent conversation with Gershwin over Skype, 
Gershwin stated that he is considering making a trip to 
Vietnam to meet with officials and let them know the purpose 
of Quan's fellowship and NED's true mission in Vietnam.  Quan 
is hopeful that Gershwin will make a visit and request 
Embassy assistance in setting up meetings if a trip is 
scheduled. 
 
¶6. (C) During his interrogation sessions, Quan was also asked 
about his connection to the Viet Tan Party (VTP).  GVN 
officials are closely monitoring VTP websites and are 
concerned with funding that is coming from overseas 
Vietnamese being used to sponsor dissident groups in Vietnam. 
 Officials are equally worried about the new generation of 
human rights dissidents and have asked Quan to forget about 
promoting democracy and "go back to being a lawyer." 
 
 
HARDLINERS VS. PRO-REFORMISTS IN GVN 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
¶7. (S) Quan told us the struggle between conservatives and 
pro-reform elements within the GVN became evident in a recent 
internal debate, in the Politburo and Central Party 
Committee, on "press privatization" and press freedom.  He 
said one of the reasons the international community had seen 
rollbacks on press freedom in Vietnam in 2007 is the 
ascension of hard-liner Le Doan Hop, Minister of Information 
and Communication.  Quan said another hardliner is Ho Duc 
Viet, Politburo member and Chairman of Personnel and 
Organization of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), who is 
particularly powerful because he largely controls government 
appointments.  According to Quan, these conservative elements 
dominate the GVN, and outnumber the pro-reformists. 
 
¶8. (S) Among those considered pro-reformist, according to 
Quan, are the two new Deputy Prime Ministers, Nguyen Thien 
Nhan and Hoang Trung Hai (Ref. E) (Note: Vietnam recently 
added two new Deputy Prime Ministerships, going from three to 
five, with support from Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung.  End 
note.).  Quan said one of his best sources of information on 
the inner workings of the GVN is his close friend Le Dinh Ba, 
the Executive Assistant of new DPM Hai, whose portfolio 
covers industry and commerce.  Ba attended Law School at the 
University of Wisconsin, and is "friendly to" the United 
States, according to Quan.  Quan said Ba has had some 
problems recently due to their friendship, and Ba was even 
questioned by the police when Quan was arrested.  Ba must now 
keep more distance from Quan.  Quan added that Ba is an "old 
flame" of the daughter of Communist Party Secretary Nong Duc 
Manh, which reportedly adds to his problems. 
 
¶9. (S) Quan said another pro-reformist with whom he is in 
contact is Office of National Assembly (ONA) Vice-Chairman 
Nguyen Si Dzung.  According to Quan, Dzung was also 
questioned by police after Quan's arrest in March 2007. 
Dzung is a regular contact of the Embassy, and told us before 
the May National Assembly elections that he was bitter over 
the Party's denial of his National Assembly delegate 
candidacy. 
 
 
INDOCTRINATED YOUNGER GENERATION OF GENERALS PROTECT REGIME 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
¶10. (S) When asked to comment on reports about pro-China 
versus pro-West camps in the GVN leadership, Quan said the 
conservatives are not necessarily pro-China as the Vietnamese 
inherently distrust China; rather, their mission is to ensure 
the continuation of the Party and its hold on power.  The 
Ministry of Defense (MOD) and the Ministry of Public Security 
(MPS) are inherently conservative elements, specifically 
 
HANOI 00001563  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
tasked to ensure the stability and continuation of the Hanoi 
regime.  Quan said the new post-war generation of "young 
generals" in MOD and MPS is considered even more conservative 
than the older, current war-generation leadership.  This new 
generation of generals has been specifically and carefully 
chosen and indoctrinated to protect the Party, ensure 
stability, and protect and promote themselves while the 
older, war-generation is known to talk more openly about 
departures from the past.  He cited, as an example of the 
war-generation, 60-year-old MPS Vice-Minister Nguyen Van 
Huong (Ref. A) who, according to Quan, is less conservative 
than the younger generals.  Quan said the struggle for the 
pro-reformists is that they speak out independently but are 
unable to collectively. 
 
 
PRESS FREEDOM, CIVIL SOCIETY CRITICAL TO FUTURE GVN REFORM 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
¶11. (C) Quan sees liberalization of the press as critical to 
freeing up Vietnamese society, because of the role of the 
younger generation in society and this demographic's struggle 
with the indoctrinated government hard-liners.  He also said 
passage of the draft Law on Associations, a key bill that 
would liberalize civil society and develop the NGO sector but 
that is now over ten years in draft stage, is also extremely 
important.  Although the conservatives are threatened by this 
legislation, Quan still believes it could be passed in 
mid-2008. 
 
 
COMMENT: DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT AS STRONG AS EVER 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶12. (S) Attorney Quan, an expert in the GVN judicial system, 
is active in the "Hanoi chapter" of Vietnam's underground 
democracy movement.  He is in regular contact with other 
leading dissidents, including Pham Hong Son and Nguyen Vu 
Binh and family members of imprisoned dissident attorneys Le 
Nguyen Sang, Nguyen Van Dai and Le Thi Cong Nhan.  We cannot 
confirm all of Quan's views on the GVN leadership, but he 
does appear to have unique connections to some key 
individuals in the GVN leadership.  Quan runs a significant 
risk of re-arrest but, while the crackdown on dissent 
continues in Vietnam, the underground democracy movement 
continues and indeed perhaps bolder than ever. 
MICHALAK