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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
MCC FOR D NASSIRY AND E BURKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT'S SOUTHERN POLITICAL BASE 
ERODING 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James R. Moore, for reasons 1.4(b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  President Rajapaksa is losing support among 
his political base in southern coastal towns to former 
Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, whose recent alliance 
with the United National Party (UNP) has re-energized the 
opposition.  In an effort to sway public opinion in his 
favor, Rajapaksa is marshaling loyal members of Parliament to 
trumpet the government's military successes against the Tamil 
Tigers.   END SUMMARY. 
 
RAJAPAKSA FACING INCREASED OPPOSITION FROM FORMER ALLIES 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Several municipal councils in the heartland of 
President Rajapaksa's political base have taken steps 
recently to align themselves with Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP) breakaway leader (and former Rajapaksa political ally) 
Mangala Samaraweera.  In Matara, the municipal council 
rejected the President's designated mayoral candidate and 
publicly stated its support for Samaraweera.  The President's 
party also lost its majority on the Tangalle Urban Council 
(only 10 kilometers from Rajapaksa's home) when three of five 
SLFP members declared they were crossing over to the 
opposition.  In Hambantota and Tangalle, municipal councils 
are waiting to strike down pro-Rajapaksa initiatives and 
declare support for Mangala.  The mayor in Galle, the largest 
southern city, has felt compelled to defer action on several 
issues, fearing that the municipal council will vote against 
him in order to demonstrate its preference for Samaraweera 
over Rajapaksa. 
 
¶3.  (C)  The Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP), once closely aligned with Rajapaksa, has also actively 
sought to undermine the President's support in recent weeks. 
On July 30 and 31, the JVP organized large demonstrations of 
fishermen in Negombo, 25 kilometers North of Colombo, to 
protest GSL fishing restrictions and the rising price of 
fuel.  Although the UNP and JVP are traditional political 
enemies, the UNP rallied its supporters in the South to join 
the JVP fishermen's demonstration.  Samaraweera, who has long 
cultivated close ties to the JVP, has provided the link that 
allows the two other parties to coordinate efforts to oppose 
Rajapaksa. 
 
THE PRESIDENT ATTEMPTS TO MARSHAL SUPPORTERS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) In response to Mangala's growing popularity and 
pressure from the opposition parties, President Rajapaksa has 
dispatched loyal SLFP members of Parliament to campaign in 
the South, heralding the government's military successes 
against the SLFP.  Embassy interlocutors have confided to us 
that the President's message to his southern base is that the 
administration "won in the East and will soon turn its sights 
to the North." 
 
¶5.  (C) COMMENT: The President's traditional supporters are 
angry about rising inflation and disappointed by mounting 
evidence of political corruption.  Embassy interlocutors tell 
us that Rajapaksa is very concerned about the erosion of his 
political base.  The government's response so far has been 
fairly measured, however.  The administration had anticipated 
that victory in the East would provide a boost to its 
flagging support, with some predicting that Rajapaksa would 
try to ride the momentum by calling snap Parliamentary 
elections.  However, the larger public seemed relatively 
unimpressed by the victory in the East; any propaganda 
benefit to the government has quickly dissipated.  It appears 
 
COLOMBO 00001071  002 OF 002 
 
 
unlikely that merely turning up the volume in an attempt to 
convince an increasingly skeptical public will be enough to 
shore up the President's sagging fortunes in the heartland of 
Sinhalese nationalism. 
MOORE