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P 201718Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUJUMBURA 000587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BY
SUBJECT: BURUNDI HARDLINE OPPOSITION LEADER DOES NOT RULE 
OUT VIOLENCE 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  In a meeting on August 7 to elicit his 
perceptions of Burundi's political stalemate, influential 
Union for National Progress (UPRONA) party firebrand, Terence 
Sinunguruza, suggested that President Pierre Nkurunziza's 
continued disregard for his country's constitution and the 
Arusha Peace accords point to a dictatorial trend by the 
ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy - Forces 
for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party.  Sinunguruza 
also warned that Nkurunziza was ignoring a rise in Hutu 
dominance in Burundi's army and police forces, in direct 
violation of the provisions of the Arusha agreements, and 
suggested that Tutsi minority groups would use violence if 
their security becomes threatened.  Sinunguruza accused 
President Nkurunziza of using First Vice President and UPRONA 
party member, Dr. Martin Nduwimana, as an accessory to his 
government and a tool for weakening the UPRONA party. 
Sinunguruza claimed that his UPRONA party is actively seeking 
dialogue with the ruling government and is participating 
fully in the legislative process which threatens to halt 
Burundi's economic progress.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a meeting with the Ambassador on August 7, 
hard-line UPRONA leader Sinunguruza claimed that President 
Nkurunziza's refusal to abide by the principles of the Arusha 
Peace accords and the Burundi constitution is tantamount to a 
'declaration of war' between the CNDD-FDD ruling party and 
UPRONA.  Sinunguruza claimed that UPRONA was ready to 
mobilize if there are any attempts by the ruling government 
to void the Arusha accords or the constitution.  Sinunguruza 
purported that Nkurunziza is moving closer towards 
dictatorship which is unacceptable to those who fought for a 
democratically elected government.  The former Burundi 
Ambassador to the U.N. emphasized that Nkurunziza must 
arrange a coalition between the CNDD-FDD party and minority 
voices to avoid the perception of a dictatorship which, in 
Sinunguruza's opinion could ultimately bring back a period of 
war.  Sinunguruza added that he would not be surprised if 
political opponents decided to fight the ruling government 
militarily. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Terence Sinunguruza also expressed concern over 
the growing dominance of Hutus in all factions of the 
government and the security sector.  In particular, he noted 
that the number of Hutus in the army and police has grown to 
more than 70 percent of the total force, in violation of the 
50 percent agreed upon through the Arusha Peace accords. 
Sinunguruza predicted that with the expected future inclusion 
of the PALIPEHUTU-FNL, Hutus could represent nearly 90 
percent of the army.  Sinunguruza warned that UPRONA, whose 
membership is primarily Tutsi, cannot accept a majority of 
more than 80 percent in the security sector.  Having fought 
for the rights of minority voices during the Arusha 
discussions, Sinunguruza stated that this rise in Hutu 
dominance, a trend he believes is a preoccupation of the 
ruling government, will represent a breach in security for 
all minority factions and lead to the destabilization of 
peace.  Sinunguruza asserted that an army dominated by one 
group and the ensuing question of minority security, led to 
Burundi's civil wars in the past and threatens to do so yet 
again. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Sinunguruza, the former Minister of Foreign 
Affairs during the 2003 to 2005 transition period, described 
Burundi as being in an institutional crisis caused by the 
current administration's disregard for the constitution and 
the Arusha Peace accords upon which the constitution was 
based.  Sinunguruza stated that participants to the Arusha 
talks agreed that the ethnic cause of Burundi's civil war 
prompted the crafters of the accords to monitor very closely 
the ethnic participation in the political and security 
sectors of a peaceful Burundi.  Sinunguruza stressed the 
valuable role that UPRONA played in the agreements and said 
that, in the interest of peace, all parties made concessions 
to reach an equitable settlement.  He stated that the 
provisions agreed upon at Arusha are as valid in the 
post-transition government as they had been prior to the 2005 
elections, and emphasized the ruling CNDD-FDD party had 'only 
won the election, not the war'.  Sinunguruza accused 
Nkurunziza of failing to promote peaceful stability and 
alleged that Nkurunziza is ignoring the recent retreat of the 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL from the Joint Verification and Monitoring 
Mechanism (JVMM) mandated by the September 2006 cease-fire 
agreement with the government of Burundi (GOB).  Sinunguruza 
claimed that the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is actively recruiting in 
thirteen of Burundi's seventeen provinces and said that 
Nkurunziza is wrong if the government does not view this as a 
 
BUJUMBURA 00000587  002 OF 002 
 
 
problem.  Sinunguruza warned that the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is 
becoming increasingly more powerful militarily and 
politically. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Sinunguruza complained that President Nkurunziza 
is trying to control Burundi's First Vice President and 
UPRONA party member, Dr. Martin Nduwimana.  Sinunguruza 
claimed that meetings requested by UPRONA with Nkurunziza are 
not endorsed or facilitated by UPRONA's First Vice President. 
 Sinunguruza also railed against President Nkurunziza's 
recent ministerial appointments, saying that Nkurunziza has 
the support of the First Vice President but not of the UPRONA 
party.  Sinunguruza accused Nkurunziza of using Nduwimana to 
destroy UPRONA's power.  Although Sinunguruza characterized 
Nduwimana as a UPRONA rebel, he viewed Nkurunziza's 
manipulation of the First Vice President as a political 
mistake.  Sinunguruza also claimed that Nkurunziza is not 
controlling his government and appears to be taking direction 
from others in decisions relating to matters of state.  The 
UPRONA party leader mentioned that former CNDD-FDD party 
head, Hussein Radjabu, as being the de-facto leader in the 
past, but now UPRONA alleges that Nkurunziza is being advised 
by high level members of CNDD-FDD's military wing. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Sinunguruza accused Nkurunziza of reneging on 
promises to the international community to form a government 
and create policies that are more inclusive for all of 
Burundi's minority voices.  Sinunguruza alleged that, to 
date, Nkurunziza has failed to do so.  In stark contrast, 
Sinunguruza described Nkurunziza's recent speech in the 
province of Rutana, where the president portrayed parliament 
members currently abstaining from legislative votes as rebels 
to the government, as imflammatory and devisive.  In defense 
of his own party politics, Sinunguruza articulated that 
UPRONA is ready for true dialogue between all of the 
important actors on Burundi's political landscape.  He 
claimed that, despite what other political parties may state, 
UPRONA desires a partnership with the ruling party government 
in managing the affairs of state.  Sinunguruza declared that 
UPRONA is not adopting an 'empty chair' policy in the 
legislative process and will fully participate in the 
political process.  Sinunguruza said that UPRONA will never 
reject any bills or laws that will impede the economic 
welfare of the state and will not block economic progress by 
voting against the current budget proposals.  In an effort to 
reach a political compromise to the current impasse, 
Sinunguruza suggested that Nkurunziza's government should put 
their position in writing, delineating what his 
administration will, or will not, do in partnership with the 
minority voices. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment:  Future dictatorship, the prospect of war, 
and ethnic division are certainly key themes Sinunguruza 
sought to emphasize while taking his opportunity to speak 
about the political impasse.  Although Sinunguruza ultimately 
espoused frank and productive dialogue with Nkurunziza to 
overcome the political difficulties plaguing Burundi, he 
nonetheless confidently and comfortably conveyed that his 
UPRONA faction was ready to go on the offensive should his 
Tutsi-dominated party continue to feel threatened or excluded 
by the government.  To date, Sinunguruza is the only 
political leader who has offered the prospect of renewed 
violence as an endgame to the political stalemate, and the 
only person to introduce ethnicity as a contributing factor 
to the government's reluctance to form a coalition with 
minority voices.  It seems contradictory that a leader who so 
eloquently lauded the ideals and success of the Arusha Peace 
accords would speak so forcefully about the potential of 
introducing ethnicity and violence into the current political 
quagmire.  It sounds much as if, in Sinunguruza, the welfare 
of the nation is taking a back seat to political ambition. 
End Comment. 
MOLLER