VZCZCXRO9235
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBS #2687/01 2361213
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241213Z AUG 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002687 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017 
TAGS: PREL NATO EUN KV RU TU
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRESIDENCY:  GIVE US TIME ON KOSOVO, 
ADDRESS TURKEY/ESDP, KEEP RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA FROM 
DETERIORATING 
 
Classified By: CDA CHRIS MURRAY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B AND D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Portuguese Political and Security (PSC) Ambassador 
Pais told Charge August 23 that the EU will only address 
recognition and next steps on Kosovo as the December 10 
report deadline moves closer.  Pais floated a "hot house" 
Dayton-like conference as a possible way to pressure the 
Kosovars and Serbs to negotiate in good faith. Pais stressed 
that the EU is attempting to meet some of Turkey's concerns 
regarding ESDP by consulting with Ankara on the likely ESDP 
mission in eastern Chad.  He noted that Lisbon wants to use 
the EU-Russia Summit to prevent relations with Moscow from 
deteriorating further.  Pais expects no problems with the 
Inter-governmental Conference on the EU Reform Treaty.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
KOSOVO:  GIVE EU TIME 
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¶2.  (C) Charge and Acting Pol Chief met Portuguese PSC 
Ambassador Carlos Pais and his deputy, Luis Ramos, August 23 
to review the Portuguese Presidency's priorities.  Asked 
about Kosovo, Pais reasoned that EU member states may need 
more time -- "a matter of weeks, not months" -- after the 
Troika's report to the UNSYG to determine how to proceed, 
including on the ESDP Rule of Law Mission.  According to 
Pais, many member states are increasingly recognizing the 
reality that Kosovo will declare independence some time after 
December 10.  The key for the EU is to develop a consensus 
whereby a member state(s) does not block the ESDP mission. 
That said, some member states continue to view a UNSCR as a 
sine qua non for such a mission.  We questioned the 
likelihood of a Russian abstention after December 10 given 
Russia's approach in New York over the past several months. 
 
¶3.  (C) Pais agreed that the chances of a negotiated solution 
resulting from the 120-period were slim.  He raised the 
possibility of a Dayton-like "hot house" conference, bringing 
the parties together in a relatively isolated environment for 
a last-ditch effort to reach a solution.  We noted that 13 
months of Ahtisaari's efforts had produced little genuine 
compromise from the Serbs, adding that such a conference 
might not work at such a late stage. 
 
TURKEY:  EU WILL CONSULT ON ESDP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) Turning to Turkey, Pais said the EU will use the 
September 18 Political Directors' Troika with the Turks to 
consult about plans for the proposed ESDP Mission in eastern 
Chad.  The EU hopes this will demonstrate to Ankara that the 
EU has taken note of Turkey's complaint regarding the lack of 
prior consultation on ESDP missions.  Various EU member 
states have not yet, however, decided how to respond to PM 
Erdogan's letter outlining several of Turkey's other 
complaints regarding its "treatment" by the EU.  No one, he 
added, has yet proposed a creative and viable solution to the 
apparent impasse regarding Turkey and the ESDP Missions in 
Afghanistan and (possibly) Kosovo.  With the Turkish general 
election now completed, Ankara may be more forthcoming.  That 
said, he noted upcoming elections in EU member states (Greece 
in September, Cyprus next spring) that might also be 
(unspecified) factors affecting EU ties with Turkey. 
 
RUSSIA:  KEEP RELATIONS FROM DETERIORATING 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) Asked about the EU-Russia Summit set for October 26, 
Pais acknowledged that few expect any concrete results. 
Portugal's main aim is to use the summit to try to prevent 
EU-Russian relations from deteriorating further.  Pais opined 
that the missile incident in Georgia is yet another 
disturbing manifestation of opaque Russian actions. 
 
HOPE TO WRAP UP IGC IN OCTOBER 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) Charge raised Portuguese expectations regarding the 
Inter-governmental Conference on the draft Reform (previously 
the "Constitutional") Treaty.  Pais said Lisbon hopes to be 
able to wrap up the work in October.  Given Polish 
preoccupation with early elections and with no indication 
from PM Brown that a referendum would be held in the UK, 
there should not be any major impediments to finalizing the 
treaty for ratification, he added. 
 
EU-AFRICA SUMMIT 
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BRUSSELS 00002687  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) We asked about internal EU deliberations on whether 
to invite Mugabe to the EU-Africa Summit in December given 
the UK's concerns and reiterated our opposition to such an 
invitation.  Pais stressed that the invitation would be to 
the AU and that Portugal preferred to concentrate at this 
stage on substantive preparations. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) Pais has been in Brussels for just eight months and 
his thoughts on most issues were somewhat thin.  His 
comments are another indication that the Portuguese 
Presidency will not be a driving force in forging an EU 
consensus on Kosovo, at least probably not before December 
¶10.  On Russia, too, the Portuguese Presidency appears to be 
in a holding pattern -- trying to keep relations from getting 
worse but without strategizing on how to achieve this.  On 
Turkey, the Portuguese would like to take positive steps but 
new ideas are in short supply. 
MURRAY 
.