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INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002475 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017 
TAGS: PREL XF LE SY EUN EAID
SUBJECT: EU CONTACTS DISCUSS THE MIDDLE EAST 
 
REF: LONDON 2928 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Alyce Tidball for re 
asons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. SUMMARY. (C) Contacts in Brussels confirmed that while 
many member states question the practicality of isolating 
Hamas, the EU is firmly committed to the Quartet principles 
and will not waver in its support for them.  Despite a recent 
flurry of press articles and think tank analyses calling for 
a more "pragmatic" approach to the Middle East Peace Process 
(MEPP) which would include dialogue with Hamas, EU member 
states have determined that such outreach would only serve to 
undermine PA President Abbas at a time when showing support 
for him and PM Fayyad is of utmost importance.  EU contacts 
insisted that Hamas would eventually have to be part of the 
solution, but said Abbas should be the one to negotiate with 
Hamas and he should do so from a position of strength, a 
position the international community could hopefully help him 
achieve.  Concrete results are also critical to not 
encouraging the development of Gaza as a separate political 
entity and to keeping Hamas from expanding its support in the 
West Bank.  Contacts said there is a strong possibility Hamas 
could expand into the West Bank, but for the moment Abbas has 
strong backing and a window of opportunity to stop 
infiltration by delivering results.  One contact said the 
Arab League wants a clear horizon for a Palestinian state and 
backing for the Arab initiative.  Speculation abounds about 
the reasons for UK PM Brown's reported interest in naming 
current UN Middle East Envoy Michael Williams as his own 
Middle East envoy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) EU HiRep Javier Solana quickly announced his support 
for the President's July 16 call for an international meeting 
on the MEPP, but some European analysts decried EU support 
for U.S. policies, claiming that it was time to engage with 
Hamas.  While many European Commission working level contacts 
have consistently questioned the wisdom of isolating Hamas, 
EU leaders in both the Council and the Commission have stood 
firmly behind the Quartet principles (renunciation of 
violence, acceptance of previous agreements and recognition 
of Israel's right to exist) as conditions for engagement with 
Hamas. 
 
¶3.  (C) Contacts in the Portuguese presidency permanent 
representation, the UK permanent representation, and the 
German permanent representation confirmed to poloff in recent 
conversations that member states, some more enthusiastically 
than others, agree on a policy of strong support for Abbas 
and refusal to engage with Hamas.  Contacts noted that Hamas 
would have to be dealt with, but said PA President Abbas 
should be the one to negotiate with Hamas, since this is an 
internal Palestinian issue. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Christian Jouret, EU Council Middle East Unit Head, 
welcomed U.S. re-engagement on the MEPP and Blair's 
appointment as Quartet representative.  While the EU is 
clearly committed to supporting Abbas, he said, the Hamas 
problem remains.  The hope that the West Bank will become a 
model Arab democracy and the Gazans will wake up and realize 
their mistake is unlikely to become a reality.  Hamas is not 
going to abandon its ideology overnight and there is a 
danger, if Abbas cannot deliver real progress very soon, that 
its presence and influence in the West Bank could expand. 
While there is no serious talk now of a Palestinian National 
Unity Government, Jouret estimates one will likely have to be 
negotiated within six months. 
 
¶5.  (C) Abbas and Olmert, Jouret said, should go to the 
U.S.-led international meeting with some agreement on 
political horizons in order to achieve concrete results at 
the meeting.  This is essential to supporting Abbas and 
giving him bargaining strength for the inevitable negotiation 
with Hamas.  Regarding the international meeting, Jouret 
asked for more details on who would be invited, insisting 
that Saudi attendance is critical.  He used the oft-cited 
phrase "cautious optimism" for the current mood in the EU and 
said they are relying on the re-engagement of the U.S. and 
will do everything they can to make the effort a success. 
 
¶6.  (C) The Portuguese Presidency's Brussels-based Middle 
East watcher Joao Costa was disappointed that the President's 
speech held "nothing new." in his opinion, for the MEPP and 
said the Israelis have to define a long term perspective on 
such issues as the settlements.  The EU is encouraging Abbas 
to re-engage with Hamas, Costa said, emphasizing that Hamas 
cannot be dismissed as a marginal group.  Meanwhile, he said, 
the priority is to strengthen Abbas so he is in a better 
position to negotiate.  If the international meeting is a 
success it will reinforce Abbas, but if he fails to bring 
home anything new and positive it will weaken him.  He said 
 
BRUSSELS 00002475  002 OF 003 
 
 
the July 23 General and External Affairs Council (GAERC) 
statement reflects the EU's views on the clear need for 
Israeli movement.  (NOTE:  The GAERC conclusions were debated 
at length in the Political and Security Committee (PSC) and 
many were unhappy with the conclusion's length and tone. 
Several contacts told us this exercise has led to a committee 
being named to study the process for drafting GAERC 
conclusions.  Another contact said the weak Portuguese 
presidency was simply not up to the task. END NOTE.) 
 
¶7.  (C) Commission Deputy Head of the Near East Unit Gianluca 
Grippa confirmed reftel account of Blair's July 27 London 
meeting.  He said Blair hoped to have a plan ready by the end 
of September and that he was counting on incremental steps by 
the Israelis and hoping that with sufficient progress in the 
process of Palestinian state-building Hamas would be 
convinced to join the process.  The German representative, 
Reinicke, took pains to reiterate that the road map is not 
dead and Blair confirmed that nothing from the MEPP would be 
discarded.  Recalling the EU-Med Foreign Ministers' early 
July letter to Blair calling the Road Map a failure, Grippa 
noted that none of those present at the meeting called for 
discarding the road map. 
 
¶8.  (C) German Deputy PSC representative Christian Buck said 
the EU is concerned about the possibility of Gaza developing 
as a separate political entity.  It is urgent that Abbas be 
able to deliver results so that he can become more credible 
as a leader and negotiate from a position of strength.  Buck 
noted that German Foreign Service Officer Katarina Lach was 
selected to work on Blair's staff.  Lach was already working 
in Ramallah and reportedly speaks fluent Hebrew and Arabic. 
 
¶9.  (C) EU Special Envoy to the MEPP Marc Otte's newly 
arrived Counselor Cherif Castel, on loan from the French 
Foreign Ministry and recently returned from their embassy in 
Damascus, provided input from the region.  He said Arab 
League SYG Amre Moussa supports an international meeting, but 
wants it to be under a UN or Quartet umbrella.  The Arabs, 
Castel said, want a clear horizon for a Palestinian state and 
backing for the Arab initiative, focusing on the settlements, 
return of refugees and East Jerusalem.  They want a 
comprehensive plan covering both the Israeli-Palestinian 
issue and the Israeli-Syrian problem. 
 
¶10.  (C) Castel said the EU is not, at this point, taking too 
seriously information that Hamas is infiltrating the West 
Bank.  Abbas is reforming his security services and has a 
67-70 percent approval rating in the polls.  Infiltration, he 
warned, could find fertile ground if the peace talks fail to 
deliver something.  If Abbas and Fayyad do not receive strong 
support and deliver concrete results before the end of the 
year, they could lose ground.  Everybody agrees this is a 
specific moment in time where something could be achieved, 
but they also recognize that if too little is delivered in 
the short term the opportunity will be lost.  The problem 
with Hamas remains and there is a strong Arab line, led by 
Syria and supported by Russia, pushing for new talks between 
Fatah and Hamas. 
 
¶11.  (C) Although economic assistance and development will 
help support Abbas, market access is key to making that 
development sustainable, Castel said.  A broader agreement 
must be reached and must pressure the Israelis to give 
"something" (i.e. territory) to Abbas.  Castel suggested 
Israel might be tempted to "play the clock" since, he said, 
many Israelis do not believe the current initiative is in 
their best interest.  Urgency is of the essence, because 
failure now could lead to a Palestinian civil war and a 
failure of the current Israeli government, which would likely 
usher in a Netanyahu-led government focused on security and 
further isolation.  If, however, the U.S., EU and the 
international community can help deliver results in this 
process they will also deliver a strong message of moderation 
to Hamas and other extremist groups. 
 
¶12.  (C) Commission Desk Officer for West Bank/Gaza Andrea 
Fontana confirms there seems to be agreement on an Ad Hoc 
Liaison Committee meeting on the margins of UNGA.  But, he 
said, there remains considerable confusion about the November 
international meeting and December Donors' Conference and how 
the pieces fit together (and how we would like to see them 
fit together).  One particular concern is the timetable:  if 
the Donors' Conference will only happen in December, it is 
not clear how that will help Abbas and Fayyad. 
 
¶13.  (C/NF) Regarding the possible appointment of current UN 
Middle East Envoy Michael Williams to the position of Middle 
East Envoy for PM Brown, Castel said Brown's people are still 
talking with UNSYG Ban Ki Moon to see if he would agree to 
release Williams.  He speculated that Brown either distrusts 
 
BRUSSELS 00002475  003 OF 003 
 
 
Blair in his new position of Quartet Representative or that 
he thinks Williams is wasted on Ban Ki Moon's staff and does 
not trust the UN to bring value to the process.  A contact in 
the UK mission here suggested it may be simply an effort by 
Brown to save Williams from working in a dysfunctional office 
where BKM reportedly listens only to his South Korean 
advisors. 
 
¶14.  (C) COMMENT.  Despite the press articles and think tank 
analyses we see the EU as an institution firmly committed to 
the current Quartet principles.  There is, however, a strong 
current of frustration, especially among the Mediterranean EU 
member states, with the previous lack of movement.  The EU 
sees the Hamas takeover of Gaza as a window of opportunity to 
strengthen Abbas and hopefully give him the tools to bring 
moderate Hamas members into a unity government.  This will 
require movement from Israel and the support of the 
international community.  END COMMENT. 
 
Murray 
.