VZCZCXRO6093
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1223/01 2431651
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 311651Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1389
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001223 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PBTS PREL PGOV KPAO KV SR
SUBJECT:  KOSOVO WEEKLY: RHETORIC OUTSHINES TROIKA TALKS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Anti-NATO rhetoric and talk of inflicting "injury" 
in response to a Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence 
(UDI), in Serbia, eclipsed the first week of talks in Vienna.  Tadic 
and his Democratic Party (DS) remain silent, while Kostunica and his 
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) lambaste NATO and supporters of the 
Ahtisaari plan, as much for their foreign policy aims as for 
pre-election positioning.  The Radicals amplified their usual 
retrograde messages for the same reason.  Senator Inhofe visited 
Belgrade and supported direct negotiations between Belgrade and 
Pristina on Kosovo.  The Ambassador met with the UN Office director 
who expressed some optimism that the GOS may become more 
constructive during the Troika talks.  End summary. 
 
PM Attacks NATO, Ahtisaari 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In public statements on August 25, Prime Minister Kostunica 
for the first time publicly supported his fellow DSS ministers' 
argument that NATO aims to form a state through an independent 
Kosovo.  Kostunica attacked the Ahtisaari plan for allowing NATO "a 
role that no military organization has had anywhere in the 
democratic world."  He called the U.S. support for the Ahtisaari 
Plan "a completely wrong approach" to resolving the situation in 
Kosovo and said that a compromise solution on Kosovo would be 
possible if the U.S. abandons its support for the plan.  On August 
30, Kostunica clarified his position by saying the purpose of the 
"NATO state" argument was simply to draw attention to Annex XI of 
the Ahtisaari Plan.  The PM invited Serbian media to publish that 
excerpt of the plan and said the government has "opened a public 
debate" on NATO's role in Kosovo. The Prime Minister addressed NATO 
membership briefly, saying that "no government body has discussed" 
membership, only commitment to join Partnership for Peace. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Holding the government's line against Ahtisaari and his 
plan, Foreign Minister Jeremic on August 26 walked out of a 
conference in Bled, Slovenia while Ahtisaari was speaking. He said 
that he "would be better off spending... time in bilateral talks, 
rather than listening to Ahtisaari, as his plan is no longer valid 
as far as we are concerned." 
 
¶4. (U) PM Advisor Aleksandar Simic, who started the recent round of 
NATO-bashing and suggested that Serbian forces' return to Kosovo, 
took aim at Slovenia's support for the Ahtisaari plan and Kosovo's 
independence.  Simic said that Slovenia "must not forget that its 
separatism started an avalanche of separatism in the Former 
Yugoslavia."  Simic added that Slovenia will "not contribute 
to...stability" if it "wants to violate the international order" as 
EU president.  (Note: Slovenia becomes President in January 2008. 
End note.) 
 
UDI Response 
------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Interior Minister (and DSS vice president) Dragan Jocic 
warned on August 25 of a Kosovar UDI with U.S. support, and that it 
is imperative that the international community prevent such a move. 
He specifically called on EU Envoy Ambassador Ischinger to prevent 
this "illegal and void act."  PM Kostunica also told the press on 
August 30 that Serbia is preparing a response to a UDI.  Kostunica 
noted that Serbia had averted the danger of a UNSC resolution 
allowing for Kosovo independence, but that Kosovo's UDI remains a 
threat.  He added that a UDI would "injure Serbia" and, in order to 
"protect both [Serbia's] integrity and dignity of [its] citizens," 
Serbia "has to inflict injury, in return." 
 
Troika Meeting Reactions 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) Kostunica only briefly addressed the Vienna talks, noting 
that it was their "quality" that mattered, not duration.  Belgrade 
media reported on the statements by the Troika after the talks, as 
well as FM Jeremic's public assertion that the Troika agreed to hold 
direct Belgrade-Pristina talks during the UN General Assembly in 
September in New York.  Kosovo Minister Samardzic said that the GOS 
team "presented a concept" for Kosovo status resolution and that 
Serbia would grant Kosovo "greater powers that it had ever had in 
history." 
 
¶7. (U) Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Tomislav Nikolic, however, 
told the press on August 25 that the SRS "was not invited" to 
participate in the Serbian negotiating team.  He said that 
Pristina's team includes members of the opposition, but that that 
GOS leaders "did not want to share responsibility" with the Radicals 
by including them.  Nikolic repeated that the SRS would request the 
GOS "terminate diplomatic relations" with any state that recognizes 
Kosovo.  Nikolic has repeatedly said that he will resign from 
politics if Russia does not prevent Kosovo's independence.  Nikolic 
said that "there is always a danger that a state whose territory is 
being seized from it will enter into war" and said that Serbia would 
have "the strength to break Kosovo separatism" as long as Tadic is 
not in charge.  On August 30, Nikolic said that he expects no 
outcome from the Troika talks and that Kosovo will declare 
 
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independence in December and called for Serbia to have a "united 
front" against such an outcome. 
 
Senator James Inhofe's Visit 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Senator Inhofe, visiting Belgrade on August 29, had 
separate, private meetings (no notetakers) in Belgrade with 
President Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic.  He also met with 
Defense Minister Sutanovac.  Following his meetings, the senator and 
FM Jeremic held a brief press conference in which Jeremic called 
Senator Inhofe a great friend of Serbia.  Jeremic told the press 
that the two had discussed bilateral relations, and military and 
economic cooperation.  Jeremic thanked Senator Inhofe for his work 
on helping Serbia access IMET funds.  Jeremic also said they had 
discussed the important role of faith, particularly with regards to 
Kosovo, and stressed that it was important to reach a compromise 
solution on Kosovo.  Jeremic said that Kosovo is important "in the 
heart because of Christian heritage and history."  In his remarks to 
the press, Senator Inhofe said it appeared to him that direct 
negotiations between the parties were necessary to resolve Kosovo. 
He said he considered both the President and the Foreign Minister as 
his brethren, and referred to Tadic as a real leader in the region 
who holds the best interests of Serbia at heart.  Inhofe said he 
intended to try to expand the IMET program for Serbia, which should 
include a cost sharing mechanism. 
 
Diplomatic Activity 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) In a meeting with the Ambassador on August 30, the head of 
the UN Office in Belgrade, Jens Modvig (protect throughout), 
expressed guarded optimism that the GOS might soften its Kosovo 
policy during the months ahead.  (Note: the UN Office in Belgrade is 
both a liaison with the UN Secretary-General's office and for UNMIK. 
The office enjoys good access to senior GOS officials. End note.) 
Modvig said that Belgrade's leaders "absolutely do not like" a UDI 
scenario.  Modvig said that the leaders here want to avoid the 
disruption to their international relations (especially with the EU) 
and the consequences of radicalizing the electorate in Serbia. 
 
¶10. (U) UK: British Ambassador to Serbia Stephen Wordsworth told B92 
on August 25 that Ahtisaari's plan should be implemented if Belgrade 
and Pristina fail to reach an agreement during the Troika talks.  He 
said he did not understand recent GOS officials' statements accusing 
NATO of creating a state in Kosovo, saying that NATO only guarantees 
security in Kosovo and the UN plays a much larger role. 
 
¶11. (U) Netherlands: Dutch Foreign Minister Maxim Verhagen met with 
PM Kostunica, President Tadic and FM Jeremic on August 29 in 
Belgrade.  In public statements, he supported a compromise solution 
within international law and the UN.  Kostunica and Tadic said that 
they had told Verhagen that Serbia is ready to find such a solution. 
 Belgrade media widely covered Verhagen's later comments to Dutch 
radio in which he called Kosovo's partition "acceptable" if both 
sides agree.  Belgrade media noted that Verhagen is the first 
European FM to publicly support partition. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment:  Belgrade politicians must decide how to manage 
Kosovo negotiations while national elections loom within the next 
6-8 months.  The comments this week both by Kostunica and Nikolic 
are for domestic consumption and intended to hold political ground 
going into election season.  Both are using the specter of a UDI for 
this purpose.  For yet another week, Tadic and his DS have chosen to 
remain silent and let others define how Serbia engages with their 
avowed "strategic imperatives" of NATO and the West. 
 
 
MUNTER