VZCZCXRO5823
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1342/01 2431530
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311530Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9264
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1517
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA CHARTS MARCH 14 ELECTION COURSE, 
HINTS AT DANGERS AHEAD 
 
REF: BEIRUT 1320 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (C) A thoughtful and deliberate Lebanese Forces (LF) 
leader Samir Geagea outlined March 14's presidential election 
strategy and the opposition's efforts to scuttle or otherwise 
disrupt the election.  Geagea stressed that the U.S. could 
best serve itself and Lebanon in the period before the 
election by limiting official U.S. statements to generic 
support for holding the election on time and according to the 
Lebanese constitution.  He urged that we not go into details 
in our public statements.  Geagea questioned Lebanese Armed 
Forces (LAF)Commander Michel Sleiman's political neutrality, 
noting that Sleiman had not declared that he opposed 
resistance to the election.  Geagea also thought that Sleiman 
may well attempt to take over as prime minister, should 
tensions between March 14 and the opposition result in civil 
disorder.  End summary. 
 
U.S.-MARCH 14 ELECTION GOALS: THE LESS SAID THE BETTER 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  In an August 31 meeting with the Ambassador, LF 
Executive Committee President Samir Geagea, accompanied by 
advisors Elie Khoury and Joseph Nehmeh, concurred with the 
Ambassador that it was not necessary that the USG be vocal 
(at least not at this point) about  opposition to amending 
the constitution that would allow LAF Commander Sleiman to 
become president.  Geagea stressed that it would be better 
for U.S. (and Lebanese) interests to limit official U.S. 
comments to support for holding the election on time and 
according to the Lebanese constitution.  Anything more would 
be perceived as U.S. interference.  Expressing approval over 
recent USG public comments, he urged that we keep our 
comments generic and not go into details. 
 
CHRISTIAN HARMONY--SOME MINOR DISCORDANCE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Geagea termed the August 20 gathering of March 14 
Christian leaders which he hosted (reftel) as "good" because 
they had agreed on a presidential strategy and overcome 
problems.  In his words, the meeting was about "declaring 
March 14 and Chrisitian legitimacy."  As for MP and 
presidential hopeful Robert Ghanem's absence, Geagea said 
they had wanted to keep the focus on the two preferred 
choices:  Nassib Lahoud and Boutros Harb.  Geagea added he 
would receive Ghanem privately next week and continue to 
engage him, thus keeping him in store as a possible 
compromise candidate.  Former President Amine Gemayel, miffed 
at not having been asked to host the event and at being 
passed over as a candidate , was finally persuaded to attend, 
although, Geagea noted, it had taken some coaxing. 
Furthermore, some other March 14 members including former MP 
and Saad Hariri advisor Ghattas Khoury were upset at not 
having been invited at all, because of, as Geagea termed it, 
their "other connotation", a reference to their closeness to 
Hariri's (Sunni-based) Future Movement, and the fact that 
their political support rested on Sunni votes. 
 
NASSIB LAHOUD'S THE MAN--AT LEAST FOR NOW 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C)  Geagea unequivocally stated that at the next meeting 
in about a month's time, Nassib Lahoud would be chosen as the 
March 14 candidate.  Harb would accept the selection of 
Lahoud, as he has stated he does not want to be elected by a 
simple majority (the March 14 mantra countering the 
opposition's insistence on a two-thirds quorum.)  However, in 
the event a two-thirds quorum was achieved, then Harb could 
be the compromise candidate.  Commenting on the opposition's 
intense dislike of Lahoud, Geagea said they perceive him as a 
pro-Hariri Saudi puppet.  When the Ambassador asked how 
Lahoud could be seen as a Saudi puppet when he so frequently 
clashed with Rafiq Hariri, Geagea said that Lahoud's 
differences with Hariri were seen as tactical only. 
 
OMINOUS SIGNS OF ARMED OPPOSITION RESISTANCE 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Terming Hizballah "the master of the game," Geagea 
 
BEIRUT 00001342  002 OF 002 
 
 
asserted that armed Hizballah members and their supporters 
were preparing for armed clashes should they see that March 
14 is determined to proceed with the election with only a 
simple majority.  Furthermore, according to Geagea, 
opposition candidate Michel Aoun's supporters all over 
Lebanon were preparing themselves for confrontation, with 
about 1000 receiving military training in the Biqa'--a 
dangerous development, as it would be the first time Aounists 
resorted to arms.  Geagea thought that "someone" in the Army 
is aware of this, and is doing nothing to counter it.  Since 
LAF Commander Sleiman has not publicly opposed those who 
resist holding the election, Geagea predicted Sleiman might 
well attempt to take over as prime minister, should tensions 
between March 14 and the opposition lead to violence.  With 
regard to opposition supporters' symbolic occupation of tents 
in downtown Beirut since late 2005, Geagea said their numbers 
had recently increased from 20-30 persons to 200 or more. 
Nevertheless, he did not expect any real action by the 
opposition until after October 12, or after Eid al-Fitr, the 
holiday marking the end of Ramadan. 
FELTMAN