VZCZCXRO2003
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #2118/01 2281335
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161335Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3428
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002118 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017 
TAGS: PGOV ECON TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: GUL'S CANDIDACY MET WITH RESIGNATION AND 
SUPPORT 
 
REF: ANKARA 2084 
 
Classified By: CHARGE NANCY MCELDOWNEY for reasons 1.4(b),(d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and Comment.  Most Turks have accepted FM 
Abdullah's Gul's presidential candidacy (reftel) with either 
enthusiasm or resignation.  The military is silently 
absorbing the blow that their earlier efforts to derail a Gul 
presidency crashed and burned.  Leftist parties are in 
disarray, while other opposition leaders are keeping a 
respectful distance.  The business community is generally 
supportive, at least publicly, although markets have dropped 
sharply since Gul's announcement.  The generally supportive 
trend is likely to continue, if only to avoid further 
destablizing tensions, but with a watchful edge; Gul (and 
Erdogan) must follow through on promises to represent all 
Turks and uphold the basic principles of Turkey's secular 
republic.  Suspicions remain, but Gul's popularity and AKP's 
election victory are potent forces.  Gul will be carefully 
watched, with many ready to exploit any misstep.  If he can 
demonstrate his independence from Erdogan and his commitment 
to strengthening Turkey's democracy for all Turks, he may 
prove his doubters wrong.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
PM ENDORSES GUL 
--------------- 
¶2. (SBU)  After weeks of evasive responses, PM Erdogan 
clearly endorsed Gul's candidacy at an August 15 press 
conference. Calling Gul an ideal leader with the experience, 
charisma and prestige to serve as Turkey's president, Erdogan 
stressed that Gul understands the president's constitutional 
duties and would represent all Turks equally.  He indicated 
that the new government and president would work together to 
achieve a strong and prosperous Turkey. 
 
BUSINESS AS USUAL 
----------------- 
¶3. (SBU) Gul is making the rounds to build support and give 
the appearance of consultation.  He met with labor unions and 
business groups on August 15, generally receiving support. 
Stressing the importance of stability, several business 
leaders endorsed Gul's candidacy as a reflection of Turkey's 
democratic process.  Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's 
Association (TUSIAD) Chairman Arzuhan Yalcindag found 
reassuring Gul's pledge to uphold the constitution and 
represent all Turks equally, but added that the business 
community wil be watching his actions closely.  Turkish 
Exporters' Assembly President Oguz Satici told the press Gul 
would be a statesman as president, just as he had proven to 
be serving as foreign minister and, briefly, as prime 
minister in 2002. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Word of Gul's candidacy late on August 13 was 
followed by a sharp depreciation of the lira and drop in the 
Istanbul stock market.  The dollar gained 6.77% against the 
lira from the opening of the markets on August 14 to mid-day 
on August 16, and the ISEM index was down 10.15%.  This 
coincided with increasing financial market turbulence 
worldwide. While it is impossible to say how much of this 
fall was precipitated by Gul's candidacy, it may have been an 
additional reason for jittery investment managers to reduce 
their exposure to Turkey. 
 
POLITICAL PARTIES MIXED 
----------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Opposition parties were mixed.  The pro-Kurdish 
Democratic Society Party (DTP) leaders said they have no bias 
against Gul but would consult DTP members before taking a 
position.  The leftist Republican People's Party (CHP), after 
refusing to meet Gul, issued a memorandum August 15 outlining 
why the party opposes Gul's presidency.  They argued Gul 
failed to consult before announcing his candidacy, is against 
the Republic's basic values, his presidency would threaten 
the future of the regime, and his election would serve as 
revenge against the democratic republic.  Nationalist Action 
Party (MHP) officials repeated their intent to attend the 
presidential voting, but also to field an as yet unnamed MHP 
candidate against Gul.  Democratic Left Party (DSP) leader 
Zeki Sezer met with Gul but indicated DSP had preferred a 
consensus approach and would cooperate with CHP in boycotting 
the voting sessions. 
 
MILITARY BITTER BUT RESIGNED 
---------------------------- 
¶6. (C) Military contacts note the atmosphere at Turkish 
General Staff (TGS) is grim but admit their options are 
limited.  Prior to Gul's announcement, retired former CHOD 
General Ozkok made a rare public statement that a headscarf 
in the presidential palace would send an inappropriate image 
 
ANKARA 00002118  002 OF 002 
 
 
of Turkey to the world.  Since Gul's August 14 press 
conference, the TGS and retired military community have been 
silent.  As one military contact indicated, the next few 
months will be telling.  The TGS will be watching carefully 
as the government and Gul pursue constitutional reforms or 
other measures that might, in their view, undermine the 
secular republic. 
 
THE (NON)ISSUE OF MRS. GUL'S HEADSCARF 
-------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C) Military contacts have denied Mrs. Gul's headscarf is 
the issue, stressing they are more concerned about someone of 
Gul's Islamic background wielding presidential powers.  CHP 
leader Deniz Baykal also claimed the headscarf was irrelevant 
to larger concerns about Gul himself.  Not all agree: On 
August 15, mainstream daily Radikal asked, "Is Turkey Ready 
for a Headscarf-wearing First Lady?" reporting that "no one 
wants to say it out loud, but the basic problem with Gul is 
that his wife wears the Islamic headscarf."  Whether 
Gul-related or not, following Gul's announcement the TGS 
shifted the annual August 30 Victory Day celebration from an 
officers' club (where it has been held since 1983) to the 
more formal Land Forces Command Base, which has a strict 
dress code prohibiting headscarves.  Gul has firmly defended 
his wife's right to cover her head as a freedom protected by 
Turkey's constitution.  "It is me, not my wife, who is 
running for president," Gul told the press. 
 
A STATESMAN'S PRESIDENCY 
------------------------ 
¶8. (C) Gul as president will present a new face for Turkey. 
As foreign minister, Gul was able to forge relationships with 
leaders around the world; his candidacy was warmly received 
by foreign officials in Europe and elsewhere.  MFA contacts 
believe having the former foreign minister as president will 
help advance Turkey's foreign policy agenda.  New AKP deputy 
and former AKP Ankara provincial chairman Nurettin Akman 
envisioned a president and prime minister working in harmony 
abroad, particularly with the EU and Central Asian countries. 
 At the same time, Gul will need to prove his independence 
from Erdogan -- partly to emerge from Erdogan's shadow, and 
partly to rebut opponents itching to show that Gul is still 
Erdogan's man. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
MCELDOWNEY