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C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINS MARR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY:  NEW AIR FORCE AND NAVY COMMANDERS TO BE 
SELECTED AT ANNUAL MILITARY COUNCIL MEETING 
 
Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b and d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The Supreme Military Council (YAS) will meet 
August 1-4 and is expected to name new Turkish Air Force and 
Navy commanders.  In all, five three-star officers will be 
promoted to four stars to replace officers retiring this 
year.  Chief of Turkish General Staff (CHOD) GEN Yasar 
Buyukanit and Land Forces Commander GEN Ilker Basbug will 
remain in their positions for another year, while almost 50 
percent of the officer corps will change billets as a result 
of promotions, new appointments, and retirements.  It is 
unclear whether Deputy CHOD GEN Ergin Saygun will stay or 
move on to command an army or the Jandarma.  The YAS is the 
main vehicle for weeding out "Islamist" officers and will 
likely recommend dismissal of a handful of officers for 
excess piety or other disciplinary reasons.  This will be the 
first formal meeting between Turkey's most senior military 
officers and Prime Minister Erdogan since the July 22 
elections and the tone will be indicative of the level of 
civil-military tension following the AKP's unexpectedly 
strong showing in the polls.  End summary 
 
Supreme Military Council 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The Supreme Military Council, or Yuksek Askeri Surasi 
(YAS), is headed by the Prime Minister and consists of all 15 
full generals and admirals in the Turkish Armed Forces plus 
the Minister of Defense. (Note: There are currently 11 full 
generals in the Land Forces, 2 in the Air Force, and 2 
four-star admirals in the Navy. End note).  The Council is 
convened twice a year, first in early August and later on a 
date determined by the CHOD, typically in November or 
December.  At the August YAS -- the most important of the two 
sessions -- members vote on officer promotions and 
dismissals.  At the second YAS meeting military procedural 
and reform issues are discussed.  YAS meetings are always 
closed to media. 
 
¶3. (U) Assignment decisions for promoted officers are made by 
the CHOD in conjunction with the YAS.  In practice, the CHOD 
and service commanders hold an unofficial meeting 30 to 45 
days before the August YAS to discuss promotions and 
assignments.  Major decisions are unofficially taken in that 
meeting and are then voted on at the YAS, approved by the 
president, and are expected to be announced on August 4.  New 
force commanders are nominated by the CHOD and confirmed by a 
tripartite decree signed by the Defense Minister, Prime 
Minister, and President.  For assignments within each 
command, nominations are made by force commanders for final 
approval of the CHOD.  Promotions and new assignments become 
official on August 30. 
 
¶4. (U) Typically, promotions to four-star general are 
discussed on the first day of the YAS.  Files of all eligible 
lieutenant generals are reviewed and all YAS members have an 
opportunity to express their opinion and grade each 
candidate.  Once the grading process is completed the 
officers with the highest grades are promoted, subject to the 
approval of the CHOD.  The same procedure is followed on 
successive days for  the promotions of major generals, 
brigadier generals and colonels.  Dismissal files are 
discussed on the final day. 
 
Expected Results from the 2007 YAS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) This year's YAS is expected to fill five four-star 
vacancies, including new commanding officers to succeed the 
retiring Air Force and Navy commanders.  Fleet Commander ADM 
Muzaffer Metin Atac is widely expected to replace Admiral 
Yener Karahanoglu as Navy Commander.  Air Force Commander GEN 
Faruk Comert will likely be replaced by War Academies 
Commander LTG Aydogan Babaoglu.  CHOD GEN Yasar Buyukanit and 
Land Forces Commander GEN Ilker Basbug will remain in their 
positions for one more year.  It is unclear whether Deputy 
CHOD GEN Ergin Saygun will remain in his position, move to an 
army command, or possibly be named commander of the Jandarma. 
 Three Land Forces lieutenant generals are up for promotion 
 
to full general.  LTG Erdal Ceylanoglu, Head of the 
Inspection and Evaluation Department of Land Forces and LTG 
Necdet Ozel, Deputy Commander, Training and Doctrine Command, 
are the most likely candidates for promotion, according to 
local observers.  Thereafter, it is a toss-up between four 
other lieutenant generals, with perhaps LTG Yavuz Yalcin 
getting the nod.  First Army Commander GEN Fethi Remzi 
Tuncel,  GEN Orhan Yoney, and Commander of the Aegean Army 
GEN Sukru Sariisik are retiring. 
 
¶6. (C) According to retired army officers familiar with the 
YAS process, this year's YAS will yield few surprises and 
will be straightforward.  MG (ret) Armagan Kuloglu told us 
that both ADM Atac and LTG Baboglu are widely respected 
officers with all the right credentials.  They currently 
occupy the typical command positions that previous Navy and 
Air Force commanders have held.  Both officers, Kuloglu 
commented, have a "confidence problem" with the U.S. stemming 
from perceived U.S. failure to take action against PKK 
terrorism in northern Iraq.  This attitude is common among 
senior Turkish military officers, Kuloglu claimed. 
 
¶7. (C) All of the three-star officers being considered for 
promotion have nearly identical, impeccable service records 
and have attended comparable training courses and schools 
over the course of their careers, according to Dr. Sadi 
Cayci, former TGS Judge Advocate General and International 
Law Advisor for Ankara's government-supported think tank, the 
Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM).  What 
differentiates them are their personal relationships to the 
current CHOD.  The corruption conviction of LTG Ethem Erdagi, 
Commander 3rd Army Corps in Istanbul, will eliminate him from 
any chance of promotion and has ended his career, according 
to Cayci. 
 
Cleansing the Military of "Islamist" Officers 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) The ability of the YAS to recommend officers' 
dismissal from service is one of the main vehicles the 
military has for weeding out officers considered too 
"Islamic," according to ASAM's Sadi Cayci.  Every year, 10 to 
12 officers are recommended for dismissal for various 
disciplinary reasons, including allegations of corruption. 
Among the more sensitive cases are those in which officers 
are alleged to display signs of being "too pious." 
Indications might include wearing a uniform to prayer at a 
mosque, the officer's spouse wearing a headscarf, belonging 
to a religious order (tarikat or cemaat), or otherwise 
demonstrating "inappropriate" religious influence in carrying 
out official duties.  Under current law, decisions of the YAS 
to remove officers for any reason are not subject to judicial 
review.  A constitutional change would be required to permit 
officers selected out by the YAS an opportunity to challenge 
the decision in court. 
 
¶9. (C) The YAS will be the first formal meeting between 
Turkey's most senior military officers and Prime Minister 
Erdogan since the July 22 elections.  As has been his 
practice in recent years, and reportedly unlike a number of 
his predecessors, Erdogan is expected to attend all the 
sessions and participate actively.  The tone of the meeting 
will be indicative of the level of civil-military tension 
following the AKP's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
MCELDOWNEY