VZCZCXRO6045
RR RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHYD #0894/01 1991401
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 181401Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7954
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1638
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1888
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000894 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C AND INR/AA 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KMCC EAID PHUM CM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 865 
     ¶B. YAOUNDE 741 
 
Classified By: Acting pol/econ chief Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  With the July 22 polls just five days 
away, campaigning across Cameroon has intensified to a fever 
pitch as political elites drum up support for their 
candidates in the Parliamentary and municipal elections.  The 
ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM), largely 
indistinct from the national government it controls, has 
campaigned aggressively to protect and shore up its dominance 
of Parliament and extend CPDM influence into areas 
traditionally held by the leading opposition party, the 
Social Democratic Front (SDF).  Among the most compelling 
storylines of these elections thus far is an undercurrent of 
populist backlash to the domineering central leadership of 
both the CPDM and SDF and the related ascension of smaller, 
more localized and ethnically-based parties.  No one expects 
the election to result in a radical change in the balance of 
power, but most observers agree that the electoral process 
this year represents a generally positive trend for 
Cameroon's democracy.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------- 
The CPDM Seeks to Strengthen its Hand 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The unofficial campaign period kicked off on July 7, 
but more than 45 political parties have long been jockeying 
for positions.  Though the fact that the presidency is not up 
for grabs has tempered international interest, the 
Cameroonian political classes have been fully engaged, in 
part because the next Parliament is expected to play a 
critical role in creating a constitutionally-mandated Senate 
and setting the stage for determining President Paul Biya's 
successor (ref a).  Few political observers believe the 
CPDM's dominance of Parliament is at risk, but there is a 
general sense that the CPDM leadership is aggressively 
seeking to protect its base and extend its reach.  One line 
of speculation posits that the CPDM leadership has demanded 
an unassailable control of Parliament to facilitate the 
74-year old Biya's presumed intention to remove 
constitutional term limits on his "reign," which began in 
¶1984. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Despite a commanding 149 (out of 180) seats in the 
former Parliament, the CPDM leadership and party faithful 
have not taken any element of the upcoming elections for 
granted.  For weeks before the beginning of the official 
campaign period, Government of Cameroon (GRC) officials have 
been unreachable or out of their offices in order to campaign 
on behalf of the CPDM.  Despite President Biya's public 
injunction against confusing the party and the state, the 
relationship between the CPDM leadership and their official 
responsibilities remains ambiguous, at best. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The CPDM's campaign strategy is exemplified in the 
slogan adorning many of their campaign banners: "Vote Useful; 
Vote CPDM."  The CPDM's political agenda, enshrined in a 
printed manifesto, does not feature prominently in the public 
campaign.  Instead, candidates and party leaders bluntly 
inform voters that electing the CPDM candidate will result in 
material benefits from the national government while those 
regions that elect opposition candidates will suffer from 
governmental neglect.  CPDM slogans turn around lauding Biya 
and promising peace and stability. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Infighting Within the Ruling Party 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  A major theme will be how the CPDM fares, given a 
rising mutinous streak among some pockets of party activists, 
fueled by CPDM Central Committee decisions to nominate 
candidates who had lost the party's primary elections.  In 
the CPDM's nomination system, constituency-level election 
results are sent to the Central Committee, which subsequently 
submits an official list of candidates to the Ministry of 
Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MINATD), 
which manages the elections.  After reviewing the list of 
winners from the party's primary elections, the CPDM Central 
Committee made a number of unilateral changes before 
submitting the list to MINATD.  Some of these changes were 
publicly well received and justified; the Central Committee 
 
YAOUNDE 00000894  002 OF 003 
 
 
reversed the nominations of an official who had been 
convicted of murder and another who had been stopped trying 
to flee Cameroon with a suitcase of cash.  But the Central 
Committee made its changes unilaterally, and most of the 
reversals had no apparent motive (leading critics to 
speculate that bribes changed hands) and angered CPDM 
activists who had supported the winners of the primary 
elections (ref b). 
 
¶6.  (U)  Some of the disgruntled candidates and activists 
have begun supporting opposition candidates and publicly 
expressing their disillusionment with the CPDM, forcing the 
CPDM to expend energy in areas that might otherwise have been 
considered "safe."  Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni and 
Assistant Secretary General at the Presidency Rene Sadi (both 
senior leaders of the CPDM) have been dispatched to Garoua 
and Douala to fight backfires among party members bucking 
adherence to Central Committee decisions.  For example, one 
CPDM municipal incumbent, after losing the party nomination 
in the primaries, publicly vowed never again to work for the 
CPDM.  Now he is back on the campaign trail, supporting his 
previous opponent in response to, depending on which rumors 
you believe, threats from the CPDM or a $3,000 consulting fee. 
 
¶7.  (U)  In the last weeks, Inoni, Sadi, Minister of 
Territorial Administration Marafa and other senior officials 
(and CPDM leaders) traveled to Cameroon's northern provinces 
to promote the CPDM party ticket.  According to reports from 
the media and Embassy contacts, the turnout was spectacularly 
low, fueling speculation that the CPDM is increasingly 
unpopular in those regions.  The UNDP (National Union for 
Democracy and Progress), which managed to leverage one seat 
in the previous Parliament into two cabinet posts, stands 
most to gain from the CPDM's stumbling in this region. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
CPDM "Butchers" Constituencies to Win More Seats 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶8.  (C)  In some areas, the CPDM's strategic maneuvers began 
well before the start of the campaign.  The controversial 
restructuring of the constituencies (described by critics as 
gerrymandering or, in the French term, "butchery") removed 
one constituency and added 12, leaving a net increase of 11 
seats.  In the North Province, the GRC eliminated one of the 
six constituencies, combining it with a region that has 
traditionally been very strongly CPDM.  This move threatens 
the sole parliamentary seat previously held by the UNDP. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
CPDM Seeks a Foothold in the SDF's Northwest 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  In the SDF's Northwest Province, the GRC added 
constituencies in such a way so as to replace individual 
seats that had gone to the SDF with two seats: a safe SDF 
seat and a second seat construed more favorably for the CPDM. 
 The CPDM has made a concerted push to make in-roads in the 
SDF's traditional stronghold, sending emissaries from among 
the region's elite to argue that support for the opposition 
has cost the Northwest Province untold benefits in terms of 
development and other assistance from the CPDM-dominated 
central government.  These campaigners point out that the 
Northwest Province, home to more than 10 percent of the 
country's population, does not have a single full minister 
post in the President's 65-member cabinet, and explicitly 
blame the Northwest's support for the SDF as the cause of 
government neglect for the region. 
 
------------------- 
The Main Opposition 
------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The SDF, still smarting from its protracted and 
ugly battle with the splinter faction that became the 
Alliance of Progressive Forces (AFP), has shown an impressive 
level of organization and activism.  The SDF's primary 
elections were completed well before the CPDM's and in a more 
orderly fashion.  The SDF's Secretary General, Elizabeth 
Tamajong, has effectively transmitted SDF messages to the 
press and diplomatic missions, maintaining a steady stream of 
articulate criticism of CPDM activities and the GRC's 
election management.  The SDF hopes to beat back CPDM assays 
into the SDF's strongholds in the Northwest Province and 
maintain its position as the main party of opposition. 
 
YAOUNDE 00000894  003 OF 003 
 
 
Bernard Muna's AFP has also been highly visible in its 
efforts to unseat the SDF as the main opposition party, 
launching challenges for 20 seats in six provinces, making it 
the sixth most competitive party on the national level (after 
the CPDM, SDF, UNDP, UPC (People's Union of Cameroon), and 
UDC (Democratic Union of Cameroon)). 
 
----------------- 
The Up and Comers 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  (U)  The 2007 elections will include an unprecedented 
number of small political parties.  Thirty of the 45 parties 
contesting the election are fielding candidates for fewer 
than five seats, and 22 parties are running in only one 
constituency.  These micro-parties appear to focus almost 
exclusively on local political issues and are often based on 
ethnic groupings.  There is a slim chance that one or two of 
these parties will steal a seat within a multi-seat 
constituency.  More likely, they might have substantial long 
term impact by forcing the larger, more competitive parties 
to give greater weight to localized issues in setting 
national priorities and candidate lists. 
 
------------------------------ 
Comment: Despite Imperfections, 
A Genuine Democratic Campaign 
------------------------------ 
 
¶12.  (C)  Although voter apathy remains high, the number of 
registered voters disappointingly low, and the probability of 
continued CPDM dominance all but a certainty, some races in 
this election remain exciting and generally competitive.  The 
urgency of the campaign has led most people to pause, for the 
moment, in criticizing the GRC's management of the 
pre-election process.  No independent observer is predicting 
an upset or even a radical change in the balance of power in 
Parliament, but most agree that the electoral process has 
shown some evolution over previous years, and that the 
energetic jockeying by all parties indicates that the churn 
of democratic politics is on a generally positive trend in 
Cameroon.  End comment. 
NELSON