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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2027 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TN
SUBJECT: TONGA POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, RECONSTRUCTION DELAYS 
CONTINUE 
 
REF: SUVA 224 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Reasons:  Sec. 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) As Tonga's Parliament was adjourning its session just 
after last November's tragic riot in Nuku'alofa, new King 
George V tasked government and pro-democracy critics to 
conclude the national debate on democratic reforms for 
Tonga's monarchy and provide a solution for the next session 
of Parliament to consider in June.  However, Prime Minister 
Seveli has insisted that pro-democracy leaders accused of 
riot offenses first face justice.  Multiple court cases are 
under way, including for five People's Representatives 
arraigned on sedition charges.  Reportedly, reform discussion 
in Parliament may resume in early July, once the new budget 
is wrapped up.  Both sides claim readiness to consider a 
degree of compromise.  Elections are due in early 2008. but 
PM Sevele has expressed skepticism that post-riot Tonga will 
be ready.  Some pro-democracy activists continue to call for 
structural reforms in time for next year's elections; others 
seem ready to delay elections if meaningful reform really is 
in the offing.  A memorandum of understanding with China to 
help rebuild Nuku'alofa could re-ignite debate about the 
King's business interests.  It appears the aid will be "in 
kind," which would further complicate efforts by businesses 
to rebuild.  End summary. 
 
Government's Mantra: Yes to Reconciliation, but Justice First 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
¶2. (C) Overall, some 1,200 riot suspects were arrested, and 
five pro-democracy "People's Representative" parliamentarians 
have been charged with sedition for their alleged roles in 
the public demonstrations that disintegrated into the 
November 16 riot and arson.  Of those arrested, fewer than 
900 have been charged and only about 500 will face trial, the 
great majority for theft and similar charges to be heard in 
the lower magistrates courts.  Contacts have told us that 
thus far fewer than 30 people have been remanded to the 
Supreme Court, which is hearing all cases involving serious 
offenses. 
 
¶3. (C) The five parliamentarians appeared before a 
preliminary hearing in May; they will be tried before Tonga's 
Supreme Court on dates to be set July 18.  At the conclusion 
of the May hearings, the five defendants told the court they 
wished to be tried by judge and not jury.  However, one 
defendant, Akilisi Pohiva, told us he now intends to request 
a jury.  A long-time pro-democracy leader and one of the 
chief figures at the November demonstrations, Pohiva feels a 
jury drawn from "the people" will acquit him.  According to 
an Australian diplomat in Tonga, the Australian seconded to 
assist Tonga's Chief Justice in the trials will be highly 
demanding of the government prosecutors' cases.  The diplomat 
does not expect the evidence against the five 
parliamentarians to be sufficient to lead to convictions. 
 
¶4. (C) Pohiva, who has moderated his rabble-rousing tone 
since the riot, told us blame for the failure of government 
and the people's opposition to start talking again lies at 
the feet of PM Fred Seveli.  Pohiva said the PM's personal 
losses in the November 16 events -- his family supermarket, 
the country's largest, was looted and burned -- have clouded 
his judgment.  Several embassy contacts have observed that 
the PM is a changed man, embittered and unable to see beyond 
an oft-stated insistence that those he sees as responsible 
for the riot must first admit their errors and seek 
forgiveness from the people before the two sides can 
reconcile. 
 
Seven Months On: Signs of a Thaw...or Not 
----------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Still, seven months after the riot and fires that 
wasted much of the capital's business district, Tonga might 
be about to restart the political dialogue cut short on 
November 16.  According to Pohiva, Deputy Prime Minister 
Tangi told Parliament in June that once debate concludes on 
the government's budget estimates for the fiscal year 
beginning July 1, debate on the future of political reform 
could begin.  Some remain doubtful.  Pro-democracy people's 
representative Clive Edwards told us that government may 
instead redirect debate to a memorandum of understanding just 
concluded with China on the rebuilding of Nuku'alofa. 
 
SUVA 00000338  002 OF 003 
 
 
According to Edwards, government plans to push through the 
MOU, call a break until August, re-open parliament for just 
three weeks and then close it until after 
constitutionally-mandated elections in early 2008 (see para 
7). 
 
¶6. (C) Advisor to the Prime Minister, Lopeti Senetuli, told 
us he was not aware when government plans to begin debating 
reforms again.  He said that, when debate does begin, 
government will seek to channel review of competing proposals 
into a nine-member, tripartite committee, with members drawn 
equally from the Cabinet, the nobles, and the People 
Representatives.  That concept was rejected by some 
pro-democracy advocates on the eve of the riot as a diversion 
from what they saw as Parliament's obligation to act on 
proposals presented last September by the National Committee 
on Political Reform.  Senetuli believes Parliament as a 
"committee of the whole" would never reach consensus, but the 
small committee could.  Democracy advocates have complained 
that the tripartite committee would be dominated by nobles 
and cabinet; but Senetuli says outcomes would be based on 
consensus, so relative strengths within the committee are 
moot.  Not totally convinced, Pohiva does now appear ready at 
least to consider the tripartite committee as a means to get 
talks going again. 
 
Numbers and Timing: Room for Compromise? 
----------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C) PM Sevele has said publicly, and reaffirmed to us 
privately in April (reftel) that he does not think Tonga can 
be sufficiently recovered from the November 2006 riot to hold 
elections in early 2008.  In April, Sevele suggested 2010 or 
¶2011.  However, Senetuli told us government now prefers to 
hold the elections on schedule, but without reform, basing it 
on the existing division of seats: 9 people's reps and 9 
nobles.  (Another 12-16 MPs currently are non-elected members 
of the Cabinet, appointed by the King.)  The Tuipelehake 
Committee proposed an all-elected parliament of 26, raising 
the people's share to 17 and leaving the nobles at nine. 
Sevele then tossed in a spanner, suggesting 14 people's reps 
and 9 nobles, with an additional "four or five" to be 
nominated by the King (thus potentially maintaining royal 
control).  With that, the pro-democracy camp offered a 21 
people's rep, 9 nobles split. 
 
¶8. (C) People's rep Clive Edwards said the pro-democracy camp 
is prepared to compromise on its call for 21-9, though a lot 
would depend on government's willingness to make a deal now, 
in time for the 2008 elections.  "2009 (or later)," he said, 
"is a bit remote."  Pohiva said that the People's Committee 
for Political Reform, made up of pro-democracy activists, 
wants reforms in place in time for a 2008 election, but he 
himself is prepared to accept elections in 2009 if government 
will compromise on the numbers.  He speculated that committee 
members might be willing to accept a 17-9-2 variation, with 
the people electing 17, the nobles 9 and the king appointing 
¶2.  Other political activists we spoke to were mainly focused 
on the need to keep the political-reform process moving, 
based perhaps on steps in which the two sides accept interim 
arrangements along with an schedule that would keep the next 
election from slipping off into 2011 or beyond. 
 
The China Syndrome 
----------------- 
¶9. (C) Looming over the Tonga political scene is the 
government's recently struck MOU with China for 118 million 
pa'anga (US$ 55 million), announced as assistance for the 
reconstruction of Nuku'alofa.  The pro-democracy camp is 
suspicious that government will use some of the Chinese aid 
to buy out the King's interest in the national electricity 
utility.  However, government, which clearly was seeking to 
convince China to provide some of the assistance as un-tied 
financing, now insists that China is not providing any cash 
at all.  Senetuli said the entire package is tied to Tonga's 
reconstruction plans, and much of the total will be in kind, 
in the form of materials and actual construction. 
 
The Rebuild: Waiting on Insurers and the Courts 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶10. (C) The rebuilding of Nuku'alofa has not yet begun in 
earnest, in good part because most major business owners have 
not received insurance payouts.  According to business and 
legal figures, several large insurers are awaiting the 
outcome of the sedition trials against the People's 
 
SUVA 00000338  003 OF 003 
 
 
Representatives.  If the five are convicted, insurers will 
claim the riot was an insurrection and invoke an escape 
clause.  Some business people complain that government 
intends onerous standards on those planning to rebuild. 
Reportedly when government attempted to demand that all new 
buildings be at least three stories tall, owners roundly 
rejected the concept.  Ambitious plans to re-wire and 
re-plumb the entire central business district and to widen 
streets are also receiving little enthusiasm from business 
people.  Many business owners face a crunch: having to 
finance rebuilding when original construction loans remain on 
the books.  A number are setting up shop outside the center 
where costs are lower and land-tenure issues area less 
convoluted. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶11. (C) As noted previously, all in Tonga now appear to be on 
record in support of "reform."  Less clear are judgments 
about pace and degree.  Politicians will need to chart a 
delicate course as they debate a new parliamentary structure 
and decide on an election schedule.  At the same time, 
Tonga's economy desperately needs rebuilding.  Some predicted 
China aid would be the saving grace, and surely that will 
help resurrect public infrastructure.  However, private 
businesses need financing, and it is not at all clear who 
will provide the funds if insurance proceeds remain scant. 
DINGER