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MESSAGE REJECTED - CONTAINS UNRECOGNIZED ORIGINATOR
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RAAUZYUW RUEHPOD0247 1981018-UUUU--RHMCSUU.
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171018Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
B T

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S NEW CONSTITUTION - REFERENDUM INCREASINGLY 
LIKELY 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000247  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: MONTENEGRO'S POLITICAL PARTIES REMAIN UNABLE 
TO CLOSE RANKS ON THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION.  INCREASINGLY, IT 
APPEARS THAT 2/3 OF THE MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT REQUIRED WILL NOT 
VOTE FOR THE SAME TEXT. THEY ARE SPLIT OVER "HERITAGE" ISSUES 
INCLUDING THE CONSTITUENT PEOPLES (IN THE PREAMBLE), PREDOMINANT 
LANGUAGE, NATIONAL SYMBOLS, AND THE STATUS OF THE ORTHODOX 
CHURCH.  PASSAGE OF THE CONSTITUTION BY A BARE PARLIAMENTARY 
MAJORITY, WHICH LOOKS OBTAINABLE AFTER THE AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 
RECESS, WOULD REQUIRE  A PUBLIC REFERENDUM, WHICH WOULD LIKELY 
BE HELD IN NOVEMBER AND REQUIRE A SIMPLE MAJORITY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
CONSTITUTION SNARLED ON EPHEMERA 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) PARLIAMENTARIANS AND PARTY LEADERS HAVE RECENTLY STATED 
THAT "95%" OF THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION TEXT HAS BEEN AGREED, AND A 
"FINAL" TEXT IS TO BE FORWARDED TO THE ENTIRE PARLIAMENT BY THE 
END OF JULY, SHORTLY BEFORE IT RECESSES FOR AUGUST AND 
SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE GROWING INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY BE 
IMPOSSIBLE TO PASS THE CONSTITUTION WITHOUT RECOURSE TO A PUBLIC 
REFERENDUM, BY OBTAINING THE VOTES OF 2/3 OF THE PARLIAMENT (54 
OF 81 SEATS) FOR THE TEXT. SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT LET SLIP AT 
JULY 3 RECEPTION THAT THE CITIZENSHIP LAW WOULD BE INTRODUCED 
"AFTER THE REFERENDUM" PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC, DURING THE COURSE OF 
A JULY 13 NATIONAL DAY EVENT, NOTED THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF A 
PUBLIC REFERENDUM IN NOVEMBER TO APPROVE THE TEXT. DPS PARTY 
PRESIDENT (AND FORMER PRIME MINISTER) MILO DJUKANOVIC HAS ALSO 
RECENTLY SPECULATED IN PUBLIC THAT A REFERENDUM WOULD BE NEEDED 
TO APPROVE THE CONSTITUTION. AT DINNER FOR VISITING ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY FRIED, SIX PARLIAMENTARIANS WERE EVENLY SPLIT OVER 
 
SIPDIS 
WHETHER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO SECURE PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL OF 
CONSTITUTION, WITHOUT RECOURSE TO A SUBSEQUENT REFERENDUM.   THE 
STUMBLING BLOCKS/DEAL BREAKERS ARE THE ONES IDENTIFIED AT THE 
VERY BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS: NATIONAL "HERITAGE" ISSUES, 
INCLUDING THE CONSTITUENT PEOPLES (IN THE PREAMBLE), PREDOMINANT 
LANGUAGE, NATIONAL SYMBOLS, AND THE STATUS OF THE ORTHODOX 
CHURCH. (THE LATTER ROLE IS DISPUTED BETWEEN THE SERBIAN 
ORTHODOX CHURCH (SOC), WHICH IS HEADED BY A NATIVE-BORN 
MONTENEGRIN, THE METROPOLITAN AMFILOHIJE), AND THE MONTENEGRIN 
ORTHODOX CHURCH (MOC), WHICH CLAIMS TO BE THE HEIR TO THE FORMER 
MOC WHICH WAS ABSORBED INTO THE SOC IN THE EARLY 1920S.)  POST 
NOTES THAT COUNCIL OF EUROPE EXPERTS, LEAVING MONTENEGRO AFTER A 
THREE-DAY VISIT ON JULY 13, FELT IT NECESSARY TO UNDERSCORE 
PARLIAMENT'S EARLIER COMMITMENT TO ADOPT A TEXT IN LINE WITH COE 
STANDARDS SUGGESTING THAT GOVERNMENT ASSURANCES ASIDE, THE 
DOCUMENT MAY NOT YET MEASURE UP.  THE COE'S VENICE COMMISSION 
ALSO ANNOUNCED IT WILL RETURN IN SEPTEMBER WITH AN EVALUATION OF 
THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) AN ADDITIONAL BIND TO ADOPTION OF THE CONSTITUTION IN 
PARLIAMENT IS THE DEMAND OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE 
(PZP), WHICH HAS STATED THAT IT WILL CAST ITS 11 VOTES FOR THE 
CONSTITUTION ONLY IF THERE IS A PROMISE TO CALL EARLY 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (ELECTIONS WERE LAST HELD ON SEPTEMBER 
10, 2006, WITH A FOUR-YEAR MAXIMUM TERM OF OFFICE). WITH THE 
RULING COALITION HAVING AT MOST 41 VOTES, AND THE OPPOSITION 
SERBIAN LIST RULING OUT ITS 12 VOTES FOR THE CONSTITUTION, THE 
STEADFASTNESS OF THE PZP TO ITS DEMAND IS CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY 
AS SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP) SUPPORT FOR THE RULING 
COALITION OF WHICH IT IS A PART REMAINS SOFT. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) IN THE OPPOSITION, THE CENTRIST, CIVIC SOCIALIST 
PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNP) CAN COMPENSATE FOR POSSIBLE DEFECTIONS IN 
THE SDP IN PARLIAMENTARY VOTING FOR THE CONSTITUTION.  THE 
POSSIBILITY OF DEFECTIONS AMONG THE SDP MPS INCREASED AFTER THE 
PARTY SUCCESSFULLY DERAILED GOM POLICY ON ENERGY PRIVATIZATION, 
AND WOULD BE MOTIVATED BY THE SDP'S ESPOUSAL OF CONSTITUTIONAL 
PROVISIONS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE "MONTENEGRIN" CHARACTER OF THE 
STATE. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) THE ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES (SERBIAN LIST WITH 12 SEATS, 
DEMOCRATIC SERBIAN PARTY (DSS) WITH ONE, AND PEOPLE'S PARTY (NS) 
WITH TWO) HAVE VAINLY SOUGHT GREATER CONSTITUTIONAL PROTECTIONS 
FOR THE ETHNIC SERBS IN MONTENEGRO, WHILE DISAVOWING "MINORITY" 
STATUS FOR SERBS (SERBS ARE 32% OF THE POPULATION, ACCORDING TO 
THE 2002 CENSUS).  A CONTEMPORANEOUS EFFORT TO ALLOW 
MONTENEGRINS TO CLAIM DUAL SERBIAN CITIZENSHIP HAS RECENTLY 
ATTRACTED MORE SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES 
THAN DISCUSSIONS OF THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION. THE SERBIAN PARTIES 
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PODGORICA 00000247  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
WILL LIKELY ABSTAIN FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE, AND THE SERBIAN 
LIST HAS SAID IT WOULD CALL FOR A BOYCOTT OF A REFERENDUM. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) THE PARTIES MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSTITUTION IN 
PARLIAMENT ARE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS (DPS) WITH 33 
MPS, SNP WITH 8, CROATIAN CIVIC INITIATIVE AND DEMOCRATIC UNION 
OF ALBANIANS (EACH WITH ONE), AND SOME MPS IN THE SDP -- A 
COMFORTABLE MAJORITY, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE REQUIED TWO THIRDS. 
THE VARIOUS ETHNIC SERBIAN, BOSNIAK, AND OTHER ALBANIAN PARTIES 
HAVE EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT THEIR GROUPS ARE INSUFFICIENTLY 
PROTECTED BY THE DRAFT. A PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON THE DRAFT IS 
LIKELY IN LATE SEPTEMBER OR EARLY OCTOBER, AFTER THE SUMMER 
RECESS. 
 
 
 
PUBLIC REFERENDUM 
 
----------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) WITH LESS THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PARLIAMENT VOTING FOR 
THE CONSTITUTION, A PUBLIC REFERENDUM WOULD BE REQUIRED TO 
RATIFY THE RESULT.  UNDER THE PRESENT LAW, THE REQUIRED MINIMUM 
TURN-OUT IS 50% OF THE REGISTERED ELECTORATE, WITH 50% PLUS ONE 
OF VALID VOTES CAST REQUIRED TO BE IN FAVOR OF ADOPTION. 
(CONSIDERATION OF A NEW CITIZENSHIP LAW HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL 
AFTER THE NEW CONSTITUTION ENTERS INTO FORCE.) PRESUMABLY, THE 
ELECTORAL ROLL USED WOULD BE THAT FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2006 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, UPDATED.  MONTENEGRO HAS A GENERALLY 
GOOD TRACK RECORD ON ELECTORAL PROCESSES, ALTHOUGH USUALLY WITH 
STRONG INTERNATIONAL (PRIMARILY OSCE/ODHIR) OVERSIGHT. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) A NUMBER OF PARTIES, PARTICULARLY THE DPS, MAY BE 
INCREASINGLY WELCOMING A PUBLIC VOTE ON THE CONSTITUTION.  A 
PUBLIC VOTE SIMULTANEOUSLY ABSOLVES THE MPS OF ACCEPTING COE 
STANDARDS -- WHICH TRANSFORM MONTENEGRO INTO A CIVIC STATE AT A 
PACE QUICKER THAN DESIRED BY SOME PARTIES -- WHILE AVOIDING NEED 
FOR MESSY COMPROMISES IN ORDER TO GET A 2/3 VOTE IN PARLIAMENT. 
MEANWHILE, THE ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES REMAIN WHERE THEY HAVE 
BEEN RELEGATED BY THE RULING PARTIES AND CENTRIST OPPOSITION - 
ABSTAINING FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE AND CALLING FOR A BOYCOTT 
OF A POSSIBLE PUBLIC REFERENDUM.  END COMMENT. 
BARNES 
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