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PAAUZYUW RUEHPOD0243 1911459-UUUU--RHMCSUU.
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 101459Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
INFO RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000243 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ECON CVIS CASC PTER MW
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED MEETS WITH MONTENEGRIN OFFICIALS, OPPOSITION 
 
REF: A. REF A : PODGORICA 235 
 
     ¶B. REF B:  PODGORICA 214 
     ¶C. REF C: PODGORICA 182 
     ¶D. REF D:  PODGORICA 100 
 
PODGORICA 00000243  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY: DURING HIS JULY 8 VISIT TO MONTENEGRO, 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY DANIEL FRIED MET SEPARATELY WITH FOREIGN 
MINISTER MILAN ROCEN, PRESIDENT FILIP VUJANOVIC, PRIME MINISTER 
ZELJKO STURANOVIC, AND SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT RANKO KRIVOKAPIC. 
HE ALSO HAD AN INFORMAL DISCUSSION OVER DINNER WITH MEMBERS OF 
POLITICAL PARTIES AND OTHERS, MOST FROM THE OPPOSITION.  THIS 
CABLE COVERS DISCUSSION ON THE ECONOMY, PROGRESS TOWARD 
EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION, CONSULAR ISSUES, AND THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL DEBATE.  KOSOVO-RELATED ISSUES WILL BE REPORTED 
SEPTEL.  PRESS COVERAGE WAS REPORTED IN REFTEL A.  A/S FRIED DID 
NOT CLEAR THIS MESSAGE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
ECONOMY 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) GOVERNMENT INTERLOCUTORS WERE SOLIDLY OPTIMISTIC WITH 
REGARD TO THE ECONOMY, AND HAD NUMBERS TO BACK THIS UP. 
ACCORDING TO FM ROCEN, GDP HAS GROWN AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 6.6% 
FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS, FDI HAD COME IN FROM 77 COUNTRIES (THE 
PM CITED "MORE THAN 45" COUNTRIES) AND HAD AMOUNTED TO 350 
MILLION EUROS IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2007, AND CONSTRUCTION 
IS UP 147% FROM THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. ASKED ABOUT RUSSIAN 
PARTICIPATION, ROCEN RESPONDED THAT THEY ACCOUNTED FOR 12% OF 
INVESTMENT.  (REF. B) HE SAID 40% OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT WAS IN 
BANKING, AND THE RUSSIANS HAVE NO PART OF THAT.  THE TOP 
INVESTORS IN REAL ESTATE ARE BRITISH AND IRISH, WITH 
SCANDINAVIANS AND BELGIANS MOVING UP FAST, HE SAID.  PM 
STURANOVIC SAID THAT MONTENEGRINS HAD ASKED TO BE RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THEIR OWN FUTURE, AND HAD SHOWN IN THIS FIRST YEAR THAT THEY 
WERE UP TO THE TASK.  THEY HAD ACHIEVED GOOD PROGRESS ON THE 
ECONOMY AND SECURITY, AND NOW NEEDED TO CONCENTRATE ON 
ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY BUILDING. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) NATURALLY, THE OPPOSITION SEES THE PICTURE DIFFERENTLY. 
 ANTI-CORRUPTION WATCHDOG VANJA CALOVIC SAID THAT MOST RUSSIAN 
MONEY WAS DISGUISED, AND ASSERTED THAT ANYTHING COMING VIA 
"AUSTRIAN BANKS" (HYPOALPE ADRIA HAS UNTIL RECENTLY BEEN THE 
ONLY ONE PRESENT) WAS SUSPECT.  MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE (PZP) AND 
SOCIALIST PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNP) REPRESENTATIVES AT THE SAME 
DINNER TABLE AGREED.  THE CONSENSUS VIEW AMONG THEM WAS THAT 
CORRUPTION REMAINED THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IN MONTENEGRO, AND 
THEY WERE TROUBLED BY POLLING THAT SUGGESTS THIS ISSUE IS WANING 
IN THE PUBLIC'S CONSCIOUSNESS AS PEOPLE FOCUS MORE ON JOBS AND 
THEIR INDIVIDUAL QUEST FOR PROSPERITY. 
 
 
 
EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) A/S FRIED NOTED TO ALL INTERLOCUTORS THAT THE DECISION 
TO JOIN THE EU AND/OR NATO IS UP TO THE MONTENEGRINS, BUT THAT 
EU MEMBERSHIP IS NOW THE ONLY WAY FOR THE PEOPLE OF THE BALKANS 
TO LIVE WITHIN A SINGLE POLITICAL ENTITY.  SPEAKER KRIVOKAPIC 
RESPONDED THAT A SLOVENIAN POLITICIAN HAD ONCE TOLD HIM THAT 
"THE EU IS THE NEW YUGOSLAVIA."  HE EXPECTED MONTENEGRO COULD 
ACCOMPLISH REQUIREMENTS FOR EU MEMBERSHIP BY 2011-2012, NOTING 
THAT QUICK PROGRESS WOULD BE THE BEST STIMULUS TO SERBIA, SINCE 
THEY WOULD NOT WISH TO LAG BEHIND THEIR "YOUNGER, WILDER 
BROTHER."  OTHER OFFICIAL INTERLOCUTORS REPEATED THE IMPRESSIVE 
LIST OF ORGANIZATIONS, TREATIES, AND AGREEMENTS THAT MONTENEGRO 
HAS JOINED OR COMMITTED TO OVER THE PAST YEAR (REF. C).  EVEN 
THE OPPOSITION FOUND NO FAULT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESS ON 
EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION AND FAILED TO MENTION THE RECENT 
KERFUFFLE OVER ARTICLE 98. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) ROCEN STRESSED MONTENEGRO'S DESIRE TO JOIN THE ADRIATIC 
CHARTER.  HE SAID SERBIA PLANS TO ESTABLISH AN ALTERNATIVE 
GROUP, INCLUDING MONTENEGRO AND BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, BUT 
EXCLUDING THE U.S. AND MONTENEGRO WILL NOT ACCEPT THIS IDEA. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) THE PRESIDENT AND THE FOREIGN MINISTER WERE 
PARTICULARLY GRATEFUL FOR U.S. COOPERATION ON DEFENSE ISSUES, 
AND MADE STRONG APPEALS FOR GENEROUS IMET AND FMF ASSISTANCE. 
"IT IS BECAUSE OF YOUR HELP THAT WE ARE MOVING QUICKLY ON PFP 
AND NATO ISSUES" SAID ROCEN.  "WE KNOW HOW SMALL WE ARE, AND 
YOUR ATTENTION AND ASSISTANCE HAS MEANT A LOT TO US." 
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PODGORICA 00000243  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
VUJANOVIC SAID MONTENEGRO HAD "SHOWN RESPONSIBILITY" ON DEFENSE 
REFORM, AND WAS GRATIFIED THAT NATO SYG DE HOOP SCHEFFER HAD 
SAID MONTENEGRO WOULD BE TREATED INDIVIDUALLY ON ACCESSION 
ISSUES. 
 
 
 
CONSULAR ISSUES 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) A/S FRIED SAID MORE THAN ONCE THAT HE UNDERSTOOD 
MONTENEGRINS' PREFERENCE FOR THE EMBASSY IN PODGORICA TO OFFER 
NON-IMMIGRANT  VISA SERVICES, AND PLEDGED TO LOOK INTO THE 
ISSUE. ROCEN NOTED THAT THE PROBLEM COULD BE SOLVED RIGHT AWAY 
IF MONTENEGRINS WERE ELIGIBLE FOR VISA-FREE ENTRY.  FRIED 
SUGGESTED WE TRY "ONE STEP AT A TIME."  THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY 
ALSO RAISED THE "EAGLES FLIGHT" CASE INVOLVING AMERICAN 
CITIZENS CHARGED WITH TERRORISM, UNDERLINING THAT THE USG 
INTEREST WAS TO SEE THAT THE PROCESS WAS FAIR.  ROCEN RESPONDED 
THAT "WE ARE FIGHTING TERROR TOGETHER", AND ASKED MEMBERS OF THE 
U.S. CONGRESS TO TRUST MONTENEGRO'S JUDICIARY AS THE PROCESS 
COMES TO A CONCLUSION. 
 
 
 
CONSTITUTION 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) ALL AGREED THAT THE SO-CALLED SYMBOLIC ISSUES, SUCH AS 
OFFICIAL LANGUAGE AND RELIGION, ARE THE MAJOR OBSTACLES ON THE 
CONSTITUTION.  OTHERWISE, ASSESSMENTS OF PROGRESS ON THE DRAFT 
DIFFERED SHARPLY.  THE MAIN SUBSTANTIVE ISSUE REMAINING TO BE 
RESOLVED RELATES TO THE JUDICIARY (REF. D). MEMBERS OF THE 
GOVERNING COALITION FELT THIS HAD BEEN PUT TO BED, BUT 
OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES DID NOT.  THERE WAS ALSO DISAGREEMENT 
WHETHER THE PARLIAMENT WOULD BE ABLE TO PASS A CONSTITUTION WITH 
2/3 VOTE, OR WOULD NEED TO TAKE IT TO A REFERENDUM.  IN THIS 
INSTANCE THE MAJOR RULING COALITION PARTNER DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF 
SOCIALISTS (DPS), PLUS THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE (PZP) 
AND SOCIALIST PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNP) SEEMED TO THINK THE 
PARLIAMENTARY VOTE WOULD PASS; THE MINORITY RULING PARTNER 
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP, LED BY SPEAKER KRIVOKAPIC) AND THE 
SERBIAN LIST FELT A REFERENDUM WOULD BE REQUIRED. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: IF IT DOES COME TO A REFERENDUM, TURN-OUT IS 
LIKELY TO BE LOW, UNDERMINING THE PERCEIVED LEGITIMACY OF THE 
PROCESS.  THE CONSTITUTION IS VIRTUALLY GUARANTEED TO PASS A 
REFERENDUM, SINCE IT WILL ONLY REQUIRE A SIMPLE MAJORITY OF 
VOTES. FRIED ASKED KRIVOKAPIC WHY THE SERBIAN LIST WOULD PUSH 
FOR A SECOND LOSING REFERENDUM WITHIN TWO YEARS, BUT THE SPEAKER 
JUST SHRUGGED.  IT IS LIKELY, HOWEVER, THAT THEY WOULD RATHER 
LOSE AGAIN THAN BACK DOWN ON SYMBOLIC ISSUES, SUCH AS "SERBIAN" 
VERSUS "MONTENEGRIN" LANGUAGE. THE SPEAKER, WHO HAS NATIONALIST 
TENDENCIES IN THE MONTENEGRIN DIRECTION, IS WELL AWARE OF THIS. 
HIS RECENT SUGGESTION OF A "JUZHNO-SLOVENSKI" LANGUAGE WAS A 
NON-STARTER BUT ALLOWED HIM TO LOOK LIKE A COMPROMISER. IT IS 
INTERESTING THAT THE SNP AND PZP SAY A REFERENDUM WILL NOT BE 
NECESSARY, BECAUSE THEIR PARLIAMENTARY VOTES IN COMBINATION WITH 
THE DPS AND ONE OR TWO ONE-PERSON PARTIES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO 
MEET THE 2/3 REQUIREMENT, EVEN -- IF REQUIRED -- WITHOUT THE 
SPEAKER'S SDP.  END COMMENT. 
BARNES 
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