VZCZCXRO6483
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0403/01 1900942
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090942Z JUL 07
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4024
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000403 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSTIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  BAVARIA'S CSU - PALACE POLITICS PLAY ON 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
REF: Munich 28 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) It now appears all but certain that Interior Minister 
Beckstein will succeed Edmund Stoiber as Minister-President. 
Further, it appears that federal Agriculture Minister Seehofer's 
personal problems and negative campaign style have given Bavarian 
Economic Minister Huber a decisive, if not insurmountable, edge in 
the race for the Chairmanship of the CSU.  Perhaps the greatest 
challenge facing the CSU at this point is a dearth of ideas.  The 
CSU of late appears to be more a soap opera than a platform for 
relevant debate, particularly on issues of national importance.  End 
summary. 
 
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THE MAN WHO WOULD BE MINISTER-PRESIDENT 
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¶2.  (SBU) On July 17, Edmund Stoiber is expected to give his final 
government declaration as Bavarian Minister-President.  Two days 
later, the CSU Landtag (state assembly) caucus will, barring some 
unforeseen circumstance, officially nominate Interior Minister 
Guenther Beckstein (63) as its Minister-President candidate.  During 
a special Landtag session on October 9, Beckstein is all but certain 
to be elected Minister President.  He would present his new cabinet 
on October 16.  Despite the appearance of a fait-accompli for 
Beckstein, he is taking nothing for granted.  He has come close to 
sitting in the Minister-President's chair twice before - once when 
Stoiber ran for Federal Chancellor in 2002 and lost to Gerhard 
Schroeder, and again in fall of 2005 when Stoiber returned 
unexpectedly to Bavaria after rejecting a cabinet position in 
Berlin.  Interior Ministry sources tell us that they have been 
instructed to be extremely vigilant so as to avoid creating any 
negative publicity for Beckstein between now and October 9. 
 
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THE PARTY CHAIRMAN 
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¶3.  (SBU) In addition to handing over the reins of the State 
Chancellery to Beckstein, Stoiber will also give-up his other role 
as CSU Party Chairman.  Unlike the Minister-President position, 
there are two men competing for the mantle of CSU party chief - 
Bavarian Economic Minister Erwin Huber (61), and Federal Agriculture 
Minister Horst Seehofer (58).  At this stage, the smart money is on 
Huber.  He enjoys the support of Beckstein and the party leadership. 
 Additionally, the Landtag caucus and the CSU's youth organization, 
the "Junge Union," clearly favor Huber over Seehofer.  Further, 
Huber's district of Lower Bavaria just reelected him CSU District 
Chairman with a 98 percent majority. 
 
¶4.  (U) Seehofer's base is not as clear, and appears to be 
diminishing.  Until recently, polls showed he enjoyed the support of 
a majority of the CSU rank and file - but no longer.  Both Stoiber 
and CSU Bundestag Caucus Chairman Peter Ramsauer have hinted at 
support for Seehofer, but nothing definitive as an endorsement.  In 
addition to lacking Huber's notable endorsements and poll numbers, 
Seehofer faces questions over the conduct of his personal life and 
some well-publicized campaign gaffes.  Most notably, Seehofer (with 
a wife and three kids in Ingolstadt) has kept a mistress in Berlin 
who recently gave birth to his child.  Not surprisingly, this saga 
has not played well within the socially-conservative and largely 
Catholic CSU.  In an apparent attempt to divert attention from his 
private life, Seehofer then allegedly threatened to reveal secrets 
about the private lives of other CSU leaders.  He has also overtly 
implied that Huber was too provincial in his outlook for the job - 
moves which cost him support in the party. 
 
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COUNTING DOWN TO SEPTEMBER 
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¶5.  (U) The new party chairman will be elected at the CSU party 
convention September 29.  The winner will then pick a new party 
Secretary General.  The CSU will also adopt its new party platform 
 
SIPDIS 
at the convention.  Before then, all seven CSU districts will have 
held their bi-annual conventions over the summer.  The most 
significant is Upper Bavaria (southern Bavaria, including greater 
Munich), which held its convention on June 30.  At the gathering, 
retiring Landtag President Alois Glueck turned over the reins after 
15 years as District Chairman to Bavarian Education Minister 
Siegfried Schneider, who defeated Bavarian Science Minister and 
ex-CSU Secretary General Thomas Goppel.  This outcome is viewed by 
many within the CSU as a rejection of Goppel's strong personal 
ambitions in favor of Schneider's avoidance of the spotlight and 
focus on the good of the party - reinforcing the notion that CSUers 
 
MUNICH 00000403  002 OF 002 
 
 
put a premium on party loyalty and discipline. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) Beckstein will not represent a generational change nor a 
sea change in terms of policy (REFTEL) - he will be a transitional 
figure.  Huber may have a relatively provincial outlook as Seehofer 
implied - but no more so than would be expected for a CSU leader - 
"Freistaat Bayern" will always come first for Germany's only 
one-state party.  However, Huber will likely prove a more reliable 
partner for Merkel's grand coalition than Stoiber.  He had been 
Merkel's first choice to head the Federal Chancellery following the 
2005 elections - a post he turned-down, given the possibility he 
would succeed Stoiber as Minister-President had Stoiber remained in 
Berlin. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Perhaps more than anything else, the recent history of the 
CSU has been an example of the triumph of personality over ideas. 
One would be hard pressed to identify which issues of substance -- 
particularly of national consequence -- differentiate the 
candidates.  This situation may simply be indicative of an 
entrenched party with a long-time absolute majority and no real 
competition to create a battle of ideas (according to a recent FORSA 
poll - in state elections, the CSU could count on 56 percent of the 
vote to the SPD's 16 percent).  Ironically, what might best 
stimulate a more dynamic CSU would be political competition 
breathing down its neck - something not on the foreseeable Bavarian 
horizon. 
 
¶8.  (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶9.  (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET 
website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . 
 
NELSON