VZCZCXRO3556
PP RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHBY #1021/01 1861118
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051118Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7897
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1686
RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 4301
RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 2658
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 2392
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP, INR, ISN, PM AND T 
PACOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEFENSE ALSO FOR OSD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MOPS MARR PINR PREL AS
SUBJECT: PM HOWARD'S JULY 5 SPEECH ON AUSTRALIA'S STRATEGIC 
FUTURE 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Howard used the July 5 release of the 
Australian Department of Defense's 2007 Defense Update to 
deliver a wide-ranging address on Australia's strategic 
future and implications for national security policy.  In 
remarks to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that 
reflected key findings of the Defence Update, Howard gave a 
positive, confident assessment of Australia's growing though 
modest military capabilities that are increasingly being 
shaped to meet both national and regional security 
challenges, as well as to contribute to international 
coaltion operations elsewhere in the world.  He reiterated 
Australia's intention to remain in Iraq until Iraqi security 
forces no longer required coalition support, and similarly 
pledged Australia's long-term commitment to Afghanistan.  He 
forecast continued United States dominance globally and in 
the region, despite the emergence of China and India, and in 
spite of temporary strains brought about by America's 
engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The U.S. alliance would 
remain Australia's most important strategic relationship for 
the indefinite future.  Howard was optimistic that tensions 
among major powers in Asia could continue to be managed 
successfully without resort to force.  He justified 
Australia's shift to a more active, interventionist policy 
among weak and failing island states to its north and east, 
pointing to Australia's expected leadership role in its 
immediate neighborhood.  As outlined in the Defense Update, 
he noted Australia has committed to increasing annual defense 
spending by three percent through 2015, including a USD 43.8 
billion defense acquisition program over the next 10 years. 
While there were no major surprises in Howard's address, its 
confident, optimistic tone is likely to resonate favorably 
among Australians weighing candidates in this fall's election 
and to enhance Howard's credibility on national security 
issues.  A summary of key points follows.  Full text of the 
speech is expected to be posted on the Prime Minister's 
internet site (http://www.pm.gov.au/media) by July 6. End 
summary 
 
 
THREATS TO AUSTRALIA 
-------------------- 
¶2. (U) Citing intelligence community assessments, Howard 
asserted there were no foreseeable conventional military 
threats to Australia and Australia was likely to maintain a 
capability edge in its immediate region.  Unconventional 
threats would continue from non-state actors using asymmetric 
warfare, and the challenge of countering terrorism, 
especially Islamist terrorism, would remain a major political 
and military struggle, engaging Australia and its allies, 
globally and regionally, for many years.  Nation states, 
rather than terrorist networks, however, would continue to be 
the most important international actors, and the balance of 
power between them would remain the key determinants of 
Australia's security. 
 
BALANCE OF POWER IN ASIA 
------------------------ 
¶3. (U)  Tensions between the major powers in Asia are likely 
to be managed without resort to military conflict, with fair 
prospects for cooperation among major and smaller powers. 
Despite the emergence of China and India as major powers 
tilting the global center of gravity towards Asia, the United 
States would not lose its predominant position either 
globally or in the region.  Likewise, there is no serious 
rival to liberal, market-based democracy as an organizing 
principle.  Australia has strengthened its relationships with 
China at the same time it has strengthened  its alliance with 
the United States.  It has concurrently initiated or 
strengthened defense and security relations with Japan, 
India, Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia. 
 
UNITED STATES 
------------- 
¶4. (U) While the United States currently is strained by 
commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, history and demography 
 
CANBERRA 00001021  002 OF 002 
 
 
suggest it would be a major mistake to underestimate 
America's resilience, regenerative capacity and moral 
authority.  U.S. will maintain a clear conventional military 
advantage over its adversaries, and its interests and values 
will ensure its continuing, active global leadership role, 
including maintaining the vital stabilizing role it plays in 
East Asia.  Australia's alliance with the United States will 
remain its most important strategic relationship for the 
indefinite future, with extensive benefits for Australia in 
terms of strategic reassurance, intelligence, defence 
technology and training. 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
¶4. (U) It is critical that the coalition succeed in 
establishing a stable, democratic Iraq that is capable of 
defending itself Al Qaeda and internal and external enemies. 
Australia remains committed to staying in Iraq with its 
coalition partners until the Iraqi security forces no longer 
require outside support. Australian national interest will 
not be served by an American disengagement from Iraq in 
circumstances of perceived defeat. 
 
AFGHANISTAN 
----------- 
¶5. (U) Australia must be prepared for a long-term commitment 
in Afghanistan.  As in Iraq, the choice is between supporting 
forces representing modernity, tolerance and hope against the 
calculating nihilism of the extremists. 
 
PACIFIC ISLAND STATES 
--------------------- 
¶6. (U) Australia must address instability in its 
neighborhood, not only to protect the approaches to 
Australia, to counter adverse effects on development 
assistance efforts, and to curb people smuggling, illegal 
immigration, drug trafficking and money laundering, but also 
because it is a moral imperative for a wealthy country to aid 
its neighbors.  These reasons mandated Australia's major 
shift in 2003 to a more active and interventionist policy in 
the region, and will continue to dictate that Australia take 
the lead in such missions as humanitarian relief, 
stabilization, possible evacuations, and counterterrorist 
operations, using both military and "soft power" in the 
future. 
 
AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE (ADF) 
------------------------------ 
¶7. (U)  Australia's defence force must be capable of 
conducting multiple, substantial operations, not only in the 
immediate region but also contributing militarily as a member 
of coalitions elsewhere in the world.  The GOA is committed 
to a three percent real increase in annual defense spending 
out to 2016, including spending AUSD 51 billion (USD 43.8 
billion) in new acquisitions over the next 10 years to 
further develop ADF as a more deployable, more versatile, 
more networked, and more highly skilled force. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8. (SBU)   While there were no major surprises in Howard's 
address, its confident, optimistic tone is likely to resonate 
favorably among security-conscious Australians weighing 
candidates in this fall's election and to enhance Howard's 
credibility on national security issues.  The Prime 
Minister's uncompromising commitment to Iraq, which remains a 
highly unpopular issue with a majority of Australians, may 
not have swayed many minds but likely has further 
strengthened his image as a conviction politician.  Howard's 
prediction of continued American dominance globally and 
regionally contrasted starkly with the opposition Australian 
Labor Party foreign affairs spokesman, Robert McClelland, who 
recently suggested that America eventually would be eclipsed 
by China's rise. 
 
MCCALLUM