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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5086
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RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1766
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000906 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR AND EAP/CM AND TC 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA:  GOVERNMENT CRISIS POSSIBLE 
 
REF: BRIDGETOWN 525 
 
Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Post's May 10 meeting with St. Lucia's 
Comptroller of Customs and the Acting Commissioner of Police 
was a cry for help from PM Compton and his few remaining 
loyalists.  While PM Compton is reportedly recovering in New 
York from a stroke, his chances of hanging on to power may be 
diminishing.  Should PM Compton fall from power, his warring 
cabinet and party may choose a successor, Richard Fredrick, 
who has known narcotrafficking ties.  St. Lucia's Acting PM 
Stephenson King, a Compton loyalist, is seeking U.S. 
assistance to build a case against Fredrick in order to 
prevent his rise to power.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) On May 9, Post received a request for an urgent 
meeting with St. Lucia's Comptroller of Customs, Terence 
Leonard, and the Acting Commissioner of Police, John 
Broughton.  (Note:  Broughton is a former UK police officer 
brought to St. Lucia to assist with the country's law 
enforcement reforms.)  The meeting took place on May 10 in 
Embassy Bridgetown.  Per request from the St. Lucians, 
Embassy's law enforcement agencies, including FBI and DEA, 
were present at the meeting; PolOff also participated. 
According to Leonard and Broughton, they requested the 
meeting with Post based on instructions from Acting PM 
Stephenson King, who presumably received instructions from PM 
Compton. 
 
NEWS OF PM COMPTON'S STROKE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Leonard and Broughton confirmed the rumors of PM 
Compton's hospitalization, stating that Compton is recovering 
in New York from a stroke.  They doubted that he would be 
able to return to his government responsibilities, given his 
advanced age.  (Note:  PM Compton is 83 years old.  End 
Note.)  The stroke reportedly left PM Compton with slurred 
speech, a symptom that may persist for some time if not 
permanently.  However, Leonard and Broughton told Post that 
Compton is not ready to give up power just yet.  He 
apparently told Acting PM King that, upon his return from the 
United States, he would fire the eight ministers who formed a 
rival cabinet faction and led the St. Lucian government to 
recognize Taiwan over China without Compton's agreement 
(reftel). 
 
¶4.  (C) The news of Compton,s stroke leaked out in a St. 
Lucian radio call-in program on May 10.  Although Acting PM 
King called the radio program to quash the story, regional 
media picked it up.  The following day, May 11, regional 
media and news outlets reported on PM Compton's stroke and 
hospitalization.  Leonard and Broughton shared with Post 
their concerns that the public is already doubtful of the 
official explanation offered by Acting PM King that PM 
Compton was in the United States for routine medical tests 
and that the tests extended beyond what had been initially 
expected.  However, they admitted that the public,s 
attention was temporarily diverted by the St. Lucia Jazz 
Festival taking place during May 4-13. 
 
GOVERNMENT CRISIS AHEAD? 
------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) Leonard and Broughton were clearly concerned that PM 
Compton may lose the premiership in the near future.  They 
believe that Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet and Housing 
Minister Richard Fredrick, the two leaders of the 
anti-Compton cabinet faction, will try to seize power. 
Although the cabinet has been putting on a show of unity 
since the April 30 recognition of Taiwan that sparked the 
current crisis, rumors and speculations about the cabinet 
split are circulating widely.  The absence of both PM Compton 
and Foreign Minister Bousquet from St. Lucia over the past 
week may have helped keep the Compton government from 
unraveling.  However, Bousquet is due to return from travel 
abroad in the next few days, and his return may set the 
political maneuverings back in motion.  Post's meeting with 
Leonard and Broughton revealed that Acting PM King is 
overwhelmed and scared.  A long-time Compton loyalist, King 
is experienced but does not appear to be politically savvy or 
suffiently powerful to reassert control over the cabinet in 
PM Compton's absence. 
 
¶6.  (C) Should PM Compton retire or be forced to retire from 
office and parliament, the remaining ten United Workers Party 
(UWP) members of parliament would choose a new prime 
minister.  PM Compton's departure from government would not 
necessarily trigger a dissolution of parliament and automatic 
elections.  Comment:  This is probably something that 
Bousquet and Fredrick are banking on because they might not 
be well positioned to win new elections.   Leonard and 
Broughton told us that St. Lucians, who admire PM Compton as 
the "Father of St. Lucia's Independence," would, at the very 
least, object to the shabby treatment PM Compton received at 
the hands of his party colleagues.  Opposition St. Lucia 
Labour Party (SLP) would undoubtedly seek to capitalize on 
that sentiment.  End Comment. 
 
¶7.  (C) Even without new elections, Leonard and Broughton 
were worried that public discontent could boil over and lead 
to protests and civil unrest.  In addition to the PM Compton 
loyalists, hundreds of St. Lucians have recently lost their 
jobs on various construction sites because:  1) immediately 
after the April 30 Taiwan announcement, China terminated 
various construction projects on the island; and 2) the 
Minister of Works, Guy Joseph, cancelled all government 
capital projects in order to conduct inquiries into cost 
overruns by the previous government.  Post convened an EAC on 
May 11 to discuss the possibility of civil unrest in St. 
Lucia and review possible response strategies. 
 
"NEUTRALIZING" FREDRICK 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Even though Bousquet led the political coup, Leonard 
and Broughton told Post that his accession to the premiership 
is by no means assured, should PM Compton step down or be 
forced out.  In their view, Fredrick, who has ties to 
criminal figures engaged in money laundering and 
nacrotrafficking, is popular enough and has deep enough 
pockets to unseat Bousquet.  This scenario apparently 
prompted Leonard and Broughton's meeting with Post.  Acting 
PM King -- and likely PM Compton himself -- are looking for 
ways to neutralize Fredrick.  Leonard and Broughton requested 
any evidence that the United States might have that would 
assist them in building a case against Fredrick.  Post law 
enforcement officials explained that DHS/ICE was working to 
expedite St. Lucia's earlier MLAT request for documents 
related to possible customs violations by Fredrick.  Leonard 
and Broughton also met with the UK High Commission to brief 
them on the situation in St. Lucia and follow up on a 
potential UK lead also related to Fredrick.  (Comment:  King, 
Leonard, and Broughton are engaged in a high-stakes game in 
going after Fredrick.  Leonard and Broughton told Post that 
they can trust only few people in St. Lucia's law enforcement 
agencies because of Fredrick's extensive network of friends 
and informants.  End Comment.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Leonard and Broughton presented a much more worrying 
picture of St. Lucia's political developments.  They and 
other PM Compton loyalists are clearly holding out little 
hope that PM Compton will be able to recover and reassert 
control over the government.  If Fredrick rises to the Prime 
Minister's or Deputy Prime Minister's office, Leonard and 
Broughton's high-stakes game of neutralizing Fredrick would 
likely become Mission Impossible. 
 
¶10. (C) However, most political analysts agree that St. 
Lucians did not vote for the UWP in the December 2006 
election, but for Sir John Compton.  With his retirement 
probable and popular protests possible, St. Lucia may face a 
period of political instability that could result in the 
voters demanding elections in the near future.  Such 
elections would likely return the SLP to power.  An SLP 
government would likely continue in the direction it had set 
in its previous term of closer ties with Venezuela and Cuba, 
and less emphasis on cooperation with the United States. 
However, an SLP government would return Fredrick to the 
opposition and increase the chances of his arrest. 
OURISMAN