VZCZCXRO5881
RR RUEHBC RUEHCN RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHGH RUEHKUK RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #4740/01 1991052
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 181052Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9955
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/DOD WASHDC
RULSDMK/NSA US WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004740 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2017 
TAGS: PARM NATO UNSC IR CZ CH
SUBJECT: CZECH DEPUTY FM VISITS BEIJING, DEFENDS U.S.-CZECH 
MISSILE DEFENSE PLANS 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR AUBREY CARLSON, REASONS 1.4 
 B AND D. 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary: Czech Republic First Deputy Foreign Minister 
Tomas Pojar defended the Czech Republic's negotiations with 
the United States on participation in a U.S. or NATO missile 
defense system in a July 18 speech in Beijing.  He said the 
Czech Republic's discussions with the United States on basing 
a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic are based on 
the belief that Iran poses a real threat to Czech security in 
the medium term, and that the Czech Republic believes that a 
missile defense system that covers only North America would 
damage NATO and EU security.  He described Russian objections 
to the Czech Republic's participation as "contradictory" 
because the Russians stress both the destabilizing nature of 
a NATO (or U.S.) missile defense system in Europe and the 
ease with which any infrastructure on Czech territory could 
be destroyed.  Asked about Czech public opinion of the 
possibility of siting a missile defense radar on Czech soil, 
DFM Pojar acknowledged that 60 percent of Czech citizens 
oppose it, but said that the issue is a relatively low 
priority for Czech citizens, and the Czech government plans 
to "educate" them.  End Summary. 
 
Speech at CIIS on U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Cooperation 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Visiting Czech First Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas 
Pojar gave a speech July 18 to about 30 Chinese MFA arms 
control officials, think tank scholars and third-country 
ambassadors at the China Institute of International Studies 
(CIIS), an MFA-affiliated think tank.  The subject of the 
speech was "The Czech Republic's Cooperation with the United 
States on Missile Defense."  DFM Pojar spoke extemporaneously 
in English and answered several questions from the audience. 
 
¶3. (C) Prior to the speech, Czech Ambassador Vitezslav Grepl 
told Poloff that the primary purpose of DFM Pojar's visit is 
to advocate for China's support for the Czech Republic's bid 
for a 2008-2009 UN Security Council seat.  Chinese officials 
expressed intense interest in the Czech Republic's possible 
participation in a U.S. or NATO missile defense system in 
Europe and asked for a more detailed briefing on the 
discussions.  This was the genesis of the speech at CIIS, he 
said. 
 
¶4. (C) In his speech, DFM Pojar said he is the primary 
negotiator for the Czech Republic in its negotiations with 
the United States over the possible siting of a missile 
defense radar installation on Czech soil.  The final 
decision, he emphasized, will have to be made by the Czech 
Parliament, per the Czech Constitution, and with that in mind 
the Czech government has decided to be as open and 
transparent as possible about the negotiations, and about the 
Czech Republic's interests in the matter. 
 
Missile Defense Necessary to Guard Against Iran 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5. (C) DFM Pojar said he believes that a missile defense 
system incorporating a radar in the Czech Republic and 10 
interceptors in Poland would strengthen the capacity and 
capability of NATO to deal with a missile threat from the 
Middle East, particularly Iran.  He said he believes that 
such a system will be built one way or the other; the only 
variable is whether the territory protected is North America 
only or includes Europe as well. 
 
¶6. (C) DFM Pojar told Poloff the issue of the DPRK came up in 
his meetings with Chinese officials.  The DPRK represents "no 
primary threat" to the Czech Republic, but the possibility 
that the DPRK will supply nuclear weapons to the Middle East, 
specifically Iran, is "a great fear."  In his speech, he said 
Iran is the Czech Republic's biggest missile-related worry. 
Iran's "past, present and future plans" represent a serious 
threat to Europe and a reason to "bulk up" purely defensive 
systems such as the missile defense system currently under 
discussion.  Possible future instability in Pakistan leading 
to the loss of control of missiles or nuclear weapons is 
another threat to consider. 
 
 
BEIJING 00004740  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (C) Alternative proposals to base radar and interceptor 
stations in "the northwest or southeast" are not workable, he 
explained.  Siting the facilities in northwestern Europe 
would leave central Europe unprotected, and siting them in 
the Caucasus region would be "technologically ineffective." 
 
¶8. (C) In response to a question from the Deputy Director 
General of the PRC Arms Control and Disarmament Association, 
another think tank partially affiliated with the MFA, DFM 
Pojar admitted that the Czech Republic and Russia have 
fundamental disagreements over the degree of the current 
threat from the Middle East and the potential for strategic 
imbalance created by the missile defense system.  "We cannot 
rule out a missile threat from Iran within the next ten 
years," DFM Pojar said, "and we recognize that it will take 
five years or more to make the missile defense system 
operational."  The Russians claim that a missile threat from 
the Middle East is not realistic for decades, at least.  DFM 
Pojar said he explained to the Russians that the small-scale 
missile defense system envisioned would only be able to 
destroy a few incoming missiles and therefore would have no 
effect on Russia's strategic forces. 
 
Czech Interests 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The Czech Republic believes that the United States 
plans to build a missile defense network no matter what 
Europe decides about its own participation, Pojar said.  A 
system that protects only one side of the Atlantic, leaving 
the United States and Canada secure but Europe vulnerable, is 
clearly not in NATO's interests.  The Czech Republic relies 
100 percent on NATO for its security, and wants to see it 
strong.  He added, "We want to cooperate with the United 
States to ensure that if multiple missiles are launched, the 
one headed for Prague is among the first destroyed." 
 
Russian Opposition Logic is "Contradictory" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) DFM Pojar characterized the Russian arguments as 
contradictory.  The Russians, he said, claim that the 
proposed system is "strategically destabilizing."  They also 
claim that it will never work, and that if it does work, the 
Russian military can easily destroy the installations on 
Czech soil in the event of a conflict.  If the system is both 
fragile and unlikely to work, he said, how can it contribute 
to strategic instability?  Mutually assured nuclear 
destruction would not be affected by ten interceptors in 
Poland.  Asked by a Chinese audience member if the U.S.-Czech 
negotiations are responsible for "serious measures of 
retaliation" from Russia, DFM Pojar said Russian 
intransigence on the Kosovo question, Russian forces in 
Moldova and Georgia and "incidents" in Estonia show that 
Russian "measures" are independent of his negotiations with 
the United States. 
 
Major Obstacle is Czech Public Opinion 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) The major obstacle to a radar site in the Czech 
Republic is popular opposition, he said.  Polls have shown 60 
percent of Czech citizens are against hosting a U.S. radar 
site, with 25-30 percent in favor.  This is normal public 
opposition to military installations in a time of peace, DFM 
Pojar said, and lags far behind jobs, education and social 
issues on the public's priority list.  He hopes to be able to 
"educate" the public on the issue and win their support.  No 
matter what the outcome of the USG-Czech negotiations over 
the radar and a Status of Forces Agreement, the final 
decision belongs to the Czech Parliament.  Wild rumors about 
the proposal, such as one saying a nuclear reactor will be 
built next to the radar site to provide power, are rampant, 
he said, and "coordinated" by those opposed to the missile 
defense plan. 
RANDT