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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
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O 121320Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0048
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000685 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT FOR AF/E - RMEYERS 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, INR/AA, INR/B, AND DRL 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR 
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR ASEC AU CN
SUBJECT:  COMOROS STABILITY IMPROVING ON TWO ISLANDS 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 681 and Previous 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  Compared to their predecessors, the 
newly installed island presidents on both Grande Comore and Moheli 
appear more conciliatory and more willing to work constructively 
with the Government of the Union of the Comoros.  As such, prospects 
for greater Union stability - despite the ongoing separatist 
rebellion by Anjouan's warlord, Mohamed Bacar - may prove to be the 
most positive outcome of the recent island elections.  While we hope 
the African Union (AU) is successful in bringing Anjouan swiftly 
back into the fold through a free and fair election, the possibility 
remains that Bacar may continue to flout the international 
community.  If so, we recommend continuing all USG projects, and 
supporting all multilateral projects, on both Grande Comore and 
Moheli.  In this way their citizens may be rewarded for their 
peaceful adherence to democratic norms, rather than punished for 
Bacar's rebellion.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
¶2. (U)  Visiting on the occasion of the Comoran July 6 Independence 
celebrations, Charge met with a wide range of Comoran contacts 
including Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi and the two newly 
elected island presidents:  Mohamed Ali Said in Moheli and Mohamed 
Abduloihabi in Grande Comore. 
 
¶3. (U)  In his Independence Day speech to local and foreign 
dignitaries July 6, Sambi was at pains to contrast the peaceful and 
transparent electoral processes that had taken place on schedule 
June 10 and 24 in Grande Comore and Moheli with the stubborn refusal 
of Bacar to submit to the will of the people of Anjouan.  He 
promised to make every conceivable effort to reunite the Comoros 
though peaceful means, but swore to lead the landing party himself 
if military action became the only remaining option.  In this 
regard, he expressed hope that the AU effort at mediation, then 
about to begin (Reftel), might bear fruit. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In private July 10, Sambi hewed to the same theme.  He 
stated that he had strained relations with Abdou Soule Elbak and 
Said Mohamed Fazul, the former presidents of Grande Comore and 
Moheli respectively.  He said the nation's progress would be impeded 
if the island governments were not working in tandem with the Union 
government and seemed confident that he could forge a better 
partnership with Abduloihabi and Ali Said.  He suggested that a 
better balance between the autonomy of separate island institutions 
and the efficiency of unitary institutions would need to be 
negotiated after the crisis on Anjouan has been resolved. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On Moheli, President Ali Said appeared most concerned by 
the looting of the official residence and offices by his 
predecessor, whom he had just beaten soundly (57-43) in the runoff 
election.  Indeed, touring the rooms where air conditioners, 
furniture, light fixtures, and even light bulbs had been removed, it 
was not difficult to believe that the state treasury had been left 
just as empty.  Ali Said claimed that he had been "neutral" - 
neither pro-Sambi nor anti-Sambi - during the election but that he 
believed he could work effectively with the Union President as long 
as Moheli is given its proper share of Union resources.  He 
acknowledged that in a nation as poor as the Comoros there was not a 
great deal to be shared. 
 
¶6. (SBU) On Grande Comore, Abduloihabi spoke more directly of the 
need for partnership with the Union.  As Sambi's recent Chief of 
Staff he was closely associated with the Union President and his 
election victory (55-45) may be read as a vote of confidence in 
Sambi.  Abduloihabi noted that Elbak, in a desperate effort to shore 
up his electoral support, had hired a large number of unnecessary 
employees shortly before the election.  This effort had failed - 
Elbak did not even make it into the runoff round - but now 
Abduloihabi was faced with undoing this wasteful gesture.  He 
intended to seek efficient governing structures and to promote a 
better work ethic, to include a spirit of cooperation between the 
island and the Union.  In fact, he planned to loan staff to the 
Union ministries and to accept Union staff on detail to the island 
ministries - a plan that Sambi warmly endorsed when Charge mentioned 
this discussion.  Abduloihabi said it would be premature to examine 
changes to the constitution now, but that he would be willing to 
consider the possibility in the future, agreeing that a system that 
synchronized the Union/island elections would be more likely to 
 
ANTANANARI 00000685  002 OF 002 
 
 
provide a unified government, as well as saving funds for more 
urgent social purposes. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT.  The tenor of all these discussions suggested the 
successful island elections on Grande Comore and Moheli are likely 
to move the nation toward greater stability and unity. 
Unfortunately the current impasse on Anjouan points in the opposite 
direction.  However, given reports of Bacar's unpopularity, it may 
be that a free election bringing in a new leadership on Anjouan will 
cement the positive trend already visible on the other two islands. 
For this reason it has been troubling to hear reports, particularly 
from the World Bank and the IMF, that they intend to suspend 
programs in the Union of the Comoros until the quasi-secession of 
Anjouan has been resolved.  From our perspective all donors should 
continue working in Grande Comore and Moheli.  This will further 
isolate Bacar and make him even less popular with the citizens of 
Anjouan, while avoiding the danger of "punishing" the citizens of 
Grande Comore and Moheli for their free, fair, and peaceful 
elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Bio notes: 
 
--Moheli island president Mohamed Ali Said is a wealthy businessman 
with interests in construction and public works as well as 
commercial activities.  This was his first foray into politics and 
he claimed to be motivated by the belief that he could do better 
than his hapless predecessors.  He was somewhat taciturn and prone 
to letting his advisors and Chief of Staff speak on his behalf. 
This may have been partly because he appears to be more comfortable 
speaking in Comoran than in French. 
 
--Grand Comore island president Mohamed Abduloihabi, 48, is a lawyer 
with many years of government service who has overcome societal 
discrimination as an albino in a conservative society where "The 
Albino" is his nickname.  He resigned as President Sambi's Chief of 
Staff to run for island president.  In previous administrations he 
has served as interior, foreign, and justice minister.  He was 
relaxed and expansive in the meeting. 
 
SIBLEY