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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR P, AF, DRL, AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017 
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV SADC ZI SF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE:  SADC INITIATIVE OFF TO SLOW START 
 
REF: PRETORIA 2044 
 
Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum.  Reasons 1.4(b) an 
d (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Political analyst Sydney Masamvu told PolOff 
on 5 June that the SADC initiative is off to a slow and 
disheartening start.  ZANU-PF's official submission to Mbeki 
includes troublesome non-starters like demanding that the MDC 
acknowledge that Mugabe was elected in a free and fair poll 
and is the legitimate President of Zimbabwe.  MDC is growing 
frustrated with the process and is already leaning toward 
boycotting the next election.  If one were keeping score, 
Mugabe would be in the lead.  However, Masamvu, who was in 
Harare last week, also believes that many in ZANU-PF are 
ready for the SADC-led initiative to work, especially those 
who see themselves as Mugabe's successors.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
ZANU-PF PLAYS GAMES WITH NEGOTIATIONS 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) After asking for a week's extension, ZANU-PF on 4 June 
gave President Mbeki its official response to MDC's 
submission on their vision of the way forward.  Political 
analyst Sydney Masamvu (strictly protect) told PolOff on 5 
June that ZANU-PF's submission calls on the MDC to: 1) join 
SADC leaders in their call for an end to all foreign 
sanctions, 2) acknowledge that the last election was free and 
fair and that Mugabe is the legitimate President of Zimbabwe, 
and 3) agree to a constitutional amendment guaranteeing 
Mugabe immunity from any prosecution.  (Comment: The ZANU-PF 
insistence on labeling Mugabe "legitimate" could be viewed as 
one pillar of immunity, but also as a stalling tactic since 
ZANU-PF must realize the MDC would never acknowledge such a 
statement.  End Comment).  Rex Mujuru told Masamvu last week 
in Harare that Mugabe's biggest fear is prosecution (i.e., 
before the International Court in the Hague), but that many 
in the party, included Rex himself, no longer share Mugabe's 
concerns and would not be upset if he were prosecuted. 
Mujuru also told Masamvu that Mugabe had tried to put him 
under CIO surveillance three months ago, but that the CIO 
refused and told him immediately.  At that point, according 
to Mujuru, he would have handed Mugabe over if he could. 
 
¶3. (C) In the meantime, Masamvu believes that Mugabe and his 
team are already trying to outfox Mbeki (again).  For 
example, Mugabe's attempts to enlarge the legislature and 
allow Parliament to choose the President will prevent the MDC 
from becoming king-makers.  Currently, if the MDC regained 
all of its 41 seats, it would break the tie between the two 
ZANU-PF factions that support either Mujuru or Mugabe. 
Masamvu also said that during the first face to face meeting 
between ZANU-PF negotiators and MDC Secretaries Generals, 
Goche told Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube that they did not 
need Mbeki and suggested that they negotiate amongst 
themselves in Harare.  Masamvu called the move "cheeky" and 
said that Mbeki was not happy with the comment.  Masamvu also 
added that Mbeki should never have chosen someone like Sydney 
Mufamadi (SAG Minister of Local Government and Mbeki's 
diplomatic trouble-shooter) to become involved since "the 
Zimbabweans will run circles around him." 
 
----------------------------------------- 
MDC FOCUSING ON SELF-PRESERVATION FOR NOW 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai asked to meet with 
Masamvu immediately after he addressed the diplomatic corps 
in Pretoria on 5 June (Ref A).  Though Tsvangirai told 
diplomats that it is too early to take a decision about 
whether they will participate in elections or not, Tsvangirai 
confided to Masamvu that the chances of them boycotting are 
currently at 95 percent.  Masamvu agreed with Morgan's 
assessment that it was pointless to participate in a forlorn 
hope.  The MDC participated in an unfair election the last 
time around, he concluded, and achieved nothing by their 
effort.  Though Tsvangirai consistently points out that his 
supporters do not want to participate in a charade, he also 
appears to have selfish motives in that he realizes that the 
next election will likely be his last chance to become the 
President.  According to Masamvu, if Tsvangirai loses the 
next election, despite its character or legitimacy, MDC 
grassroots will likely look for another leader with a better 
chance of achieving a better result. 
 
----------------------------- 
 
PRETORIA 00002105  002 OF 002 
 
 
ZANU-PF ALLIANCES STILL FLUID 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Masamvu described ongoing and changing alliances 
between ZANU-PF members.  According to Masamvu, Rex Mujuru is 
"restless" and is becoming closer to Emerson Mnangagwa. 
Masamvu also heard that the heightened state of alert by the 
military was due to concerns about a palace coup, not the 
activities of the opposition.  When asked who would lead such 
a coup, Masamvu said Rex Mujuru.  The Women's League, whose 
president recently said that "a fish rotten at the head 
should be thrown away," is leaning toward Simba Makoni. 
Masamvu also suspects that Gono is gaining ground and warned 
PolOff that if Mugabe is not running, Gono will throw his hat 
in the ring 3 months before an election.  Masamvu told PolOff 
that Gono acknowledges he could not defeat Mugabe, but that 
Gono believes he could easily defeat Mujuru and Mnangagwa. 
 
--------------------------------- 
MBEKI CALLS ON MASAMVU FOR ADVICE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Masamvu told PolOff that Mbeki asked him and Mike 
McGovern from International Crisis Group to meet with him and 
Deputy ForMin Pahad to discuss Zimbabwe at the beginning of 
May.  (Note: Masamvu said the meeting was held at 1:00 am at 
Mbeki's official residence and that Mbeki "was at his best," 
even at that hour.  Masamvu was told that Mbeki's last 
meeting that day was scheduled for 3:00 am. End Note)  Mbeki 
specifically asked Masamvu about the configuration of 
political loyalties within the Zimbabwean military and what 
kind of assistance the MDC would need to govern.  Masamvu 
responded that the military is divided in thirds, with 
one-third loyal to Mugabe, one-third to Mujuru, and one-third 
to Mnangagwa.  As for the MDC, Masamvu said, "I had to be 
honest; I told them that MDC would win in a free and fair 
election, but they would need significant help building 
capacity to govern effectively."  Masamvu then joked that 
given the shallowness of the MDC ranks, the party would have 
to run two pages of classified ads just to get enough 
ministers to fill a cabinet. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) Masamvu's insights into the interpersonal, political 
and social dynamics influencing events in Zimbabwe are in 
demand by regional and international leaders and analysts. 
He was the primary author of the recent analysis on Zimbabwe, 
following the SADC Special Session in Dar es Salaam, 
published by the International Crisis Group.  South Africa's 
highest leaders who are most directly engaged in the 
SADC-mandated initiative pursued by President Mbeki call on 
Masamvu and seem to value his assessment of the situation. 
They and others seek his advice as they formulate their 
policies and strategies.  As such, Masamvu has become as much 
an influential player in these complicated developments as he 
is a keen eyed observer and analyst.  Nevertheless, his 
judgment is valued because he is often close to the mark and 
has the rare ability to move comfortably between opposition 
and ruling party leaders while maintaining warm associations 
within the Zimbabwean and international NGO communities. 
Post has learned to trust his judgment.  In this case, he 
confessed a personal sense of despondency with the pace of 
events that significantly chills any optimistic expectations 
for the near term. 
Teitelbaum