VZCZCXRO2693
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0763/01 1521311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011311Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3549
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0553

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR AF/W 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR NG
SUBJECT: GON FALLS ON CENSURE MOTION; NEW PM AND CABINET WILL 
EMERGE 
 
REF NIAMEY 737, NIAMEY 756 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. On May 31, the National Assembly of Niger passed (by 62 votes out 
of 113) a motion of no confidence moved by opposition MPs against 
the GON. Prime Minister Hama Amadou and all of the GON's 31 
ministers must now resign. President Mamadou Tandja will name a new 
PM. Yesterday's events brought an end to Amadou's seven plus year 
premiership, and raised serious questions about the future of the 
ruling MNSD party and its longtime public face, Hama Amadou. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
---------------- 
The final debate 
---------------- 
 
¶2. Following the events covered reftels, the National Assembly 
discussed and voted to approve the motion of censure on May 31. 
After a series of statements by individual MPs, in their closing 
remarks three out the four caucuses that make up the National 
Assembly called their members to vote for the motion. As a result, 
62 voted for and 51 against. 
 
¶3. As the vote is by secret ballot, one must theorize as to how 
deputies voted. At the risk of oversimplification, we assume that 
the 47 members of the MNSD, Prime Minister Hama Amadou's party and 
main party of the ruling coalition, voted against the motion, as did 
one deputy from another small party. Three MPs from other parties - 
including two who signed a petition to the Constitutional Court 
contesting the opposition's right to bring the motion - also appear 
to have voted against it, even as their parties favored it 
overwhelmingly. The CDS, MNSD's principal coalition partner, appears 
to have sided with the opposition in bringing the government down. 
 
¶4. Article 89 of Niger's Constitution provides that when the 
National Assembly adopts a motion of censure, "the Prime Minister 
submits the cabinet's resignation to the President." Article 119.10 
of the National Assembly by-laws states, "the adoption of a motion 
of censure by a majority of members of the National Assembly 
automatically entails the resignation of the cabinet." 
 
¶5. In his final statement, outgoing Prime Minister Hama Amadou said, 
"This is democracy at work. We are democrats and we hope that our 
democracy continues to grow. I congratulate the opposition for 
having achieved a masterstroke. A majority that lacks a soul can 
only crumble down. However, this is not the fall of our regime; it 
is just the fall of a cabinet. I am glad to hear the PNDS's respect 
and full support for President Tandja. That makes two of us." 
 
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What's next? 
------------ 
 
¶6. The formation of a new cabinet lies in President Tandja's hands. 
Article 45 of Niger's Constitution provides that "the President of 
the Republic appoints the prime minister from a list of three (3) 
officials proposed by the majority. Upon the prime minister's 
proposition, he appoints the other members of the cabinet..." The 
President may also choose to reiterate his trust in the dismissed 
cabinet by dissolving the National Assembly (article 48 of the 
constitution). In this case, new elections should be held within 45 
to 90 days to renew the National Assembly. The latter option seems 
unlikely due to budget constraints and political reality (Niger is 
already on track to vote for a new President and National Assembly 
in December of 2009). 
 
¶7. This motion may also see a transformation of the political 
landscape by the formation of a new majority made up of the parties 
that voted for the censure. This will then create a "cohabitation" 
wherein the President will share power with a prime minister from a 
different party - the type of situation that created a political 
impasse in 1994-95 and led to a military coup in 1996. However, the 
current opposition leaders have indicated that they do not intend to 
join any form of majority. They stated that by this motion, they 
wanted to see a credible new cabinet that takes into account 
people's major concerns, rather than preparing their personal 
political agenda. It also remains to be seen how the MNSD, the 
country's largest political party led by now former Prime Minister 
Hama, will react to the current situation. 
 
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Comment: Politics, 
But by the Rules 
------------------ 
 
¶8. This motion (the fifth against the PM since 2000) succeeded where 
others had failed due to popular outrage over the MEBA scandal and 
 
NIAMEY 00000763  002 OF 002 
 
 
the GON's perceived reluctance to investigate the PM's role. 
Impending elections in 2009, in which Hama Amadou was poised to be a 
major candidate may have focused the minds of the opposition and 
coalition deputies alike. At some level, the vote seemed to have 
been planned in such a way as to discredit the PM and undermine his 
ambition to run for president in 2009. Observers saw no indication 
that President Tandja intervened in this political development. This 
was the first motion submitted by the opposition since the beginning 
of the second legislature in January 2005. During the first 
legislature, the opposition issued four different censure motions, 
but all were defeated. 
 
¶9. The opposition argues that moving censure motions is the only way 
to communicate its views on issues of national importance, which may 
otherwise not be known countrywide due to what it perceives as 
censorship on government radio and TV (the only media to cover the 
entire country). By law, debates on motions of censure must be 
covered in their entirety by public radio and TV. 
 
¶10. Beyond its immediate political implications, the censure motion 
and the events which followed demonstrated the strength and capacity 
of Niger's democratic institutions. From the National Assembly to 
the Constitutional Court to the PM himself (who accepted the outcome 
and commended the opposition for their loyalty to the state), the 
institutions of Niger's young democracy performed to a very high 
standard. Only eight years removed from a bloody military coup, 
Niger's government and people have achieved a peaceful, legal, and 
transparent transfer of power. END COMMENT. 
 
ALLEN