VZCZCXRO6952
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHKU #0882/01 1571014
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 061014Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9305
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 000882 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2022 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: INFLUENTIAL AL-SABAH PREDICTS CONSTITUTIONAL 
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT WITHIN ONE MONTH 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 836 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 566 
     ¶C. KUWAIT 522 
     ¶D. KUWAIT 430 
     ¶E. KUWAIT 317 
     ¶F. 06 KUWAIT 4498 
     ¶G. 06 KUWAIT 4430 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) Summary and comment.  An influential, younger 
Shaykh in the inner circle of the ruling family told the 
Ambassador June 4 that there was a "90% chance" the Amir 
would dissolve Parliament within a month and call for end of 
summer elections.  Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak 
Al-Sabah believed most Kuwaitis would support the move.  He 
predicted opposition MPs, who won a parliamentary majority in 
last summer's elections, would make further gains.  By making 
MPs spend considerable money on their re-election campaigns, 
Shaykh Mohammed said the dissolution would send a signal that 
the Amir would not tolerate bickering at the expense of 
development in the country.  He was nonetheless skeptical 
that the new Parliament would differ significantly from the 
current one and predicted another constitutional dissolution 
next summer.  Shaykh Mohammed said regional circumstances and 
the possible U.S. reaction were not factors in the 
leadership's thinking on dissolution.  While focusing his 
criticism on Parliament, Shaykh Mohammed also lamented the 
lack of strong leadership within the ruling family and said 
he could foresee a Prime Minister from outside the Al-Sabah 
family being appointed in the next three to five years. 
These political developments could affect the Amir's planned 
private travel to the U.S. this summer. 
 
¶2.  (S/NF) Comment: While appearing increasingly likely, the 
dissolution of Parliament could be prevented, at least for 
the time being, by the resignation or replacement of Oil 
Minister Shaykh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah, who opposition MPs 
are threatening to "grill" for comments he made in support of 
another senior ruling family member accused of embezzlement. 
If this happens, he would be the third minister forced out of 
the Cabinet in the last seven months by MPs from the three 
opposition blocs.  Rather than resolving tensions, this would 
likely merely embolden opposition MPs to go after other 
ministers.  Complicating the issue is the fact that some 
opposition groups stand to gain from elections under the new 
electoral system adopted last summer and may, therefore, be 
intentionally stoking tensions with the Government in the 
hope of provoking a dissolution.  Some members of the ruling 
family are rumored to be doing the same thing through 
loyalists in Parliament in an attempt to discredit the 
institution and gain popular support for an unconstitutional 
dissolution.  In this context, a compromise solution is 
unlikely, suggesting it is going to be a long, hot summer in 
Kuwait.  We see no serious consequences for U.S. interests 
emerging in the short term from the Kuwaitis' domestic 
political problems, particularly regarding key foreign and 
security policy issues.  End summary and comment. 
 
¶3.  (S/NF) An influential member of the ruling family told 
the Ambassador June 4 that there was a "90% chance" 
Parliament would be dissolved shortly after the expected 
"grilling" of Oil Minister Shaykh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah on 
June 25 and new elections held in late-August or 
early-September.  Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak 
Al-Sabah (36), who wields considerable influence by virtue of 
his lineage - he is the elder of two surviving grandsons of 
Mubarak Al-Kabir, the founder of modern Kuwait - and close 
relations with the Amir and other senior members of the 
ruling family, said the Al-Sabah leadership is fed up with 
the political deadlock and lack of progress in the country, 
problems it blames on constant opposition from Parliament. 
"The Amir has given (opposition MPs) every possible chance 
for adult discourse," he said.  "Unfortunately, we haven't 
found that on the other side."  Having publicly ruled out an 
unconstitutional dissolution earlier this year (ref B) and 
formed a new Cabinet in March (ref D), the Amir now hopes to 
resolve tensions between the Government and Parliament by 
holding elections under the new five constituency electoral 
system adopted last summer, which some observers argue will 
yield more qualified, less parochial MPs, Shaykh Mohammed 
said. 
 
¶4.  (S/NF) Shaykh Mohammed believed the move would be 
supported by most Kuwaitis, who are increasingly frustrated 
with Parliament and disillusioned with the results of last 
year's elections, which many believed would usher in an era 
of reform and progress.  He was skeptical, however, that the 
new Parliament would differ significantly from the current 
 
KUWAIT 00000882  002 OF 003 
 
 
one either in terms of its composition or its attitude 
towards the Government.  He predicted opposition MPs would 
make further gains in the elections, using the dissolution as 
proof that "corrupt" members of the ruling family were trying 
to prevent the investigation and prosecution of former 
Minister of Oil and Minister of Finance Shaykh Ali Al-Khalifa 
Al-Sabah on charges of embezzling more than $100 million 
during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait.  In particular, Shaykh 
Mohammed believed more "populists," liberals, and independent 
Islamists and fewer pro-Government independents would be 
elected, making it difficult for Jassem Al-Khorafi to be 
re-elected as Speaker and perhaps opening the way for veteran 
opposition MP Ahmed Al-Saadoun to regain the speakership.  He 
predicted the women's vote would again benefit tribal and 
Islamist candidates, and vote-buying would still be 
prevalent, though cheaper: 250-300KD ($865-$1,040) per vote 
rather than 1000KD ($3,470) as in past elections. 
 
¶5.  (S/NF) While officially the head of the Citizens' 
Services Agency and the Government Assessment Body, Shaykh 
Mohammed said he was also responsible for negotiating with 
MPs and political groups "to see what sort of favors we (the 
ruling family) can give them in return for their support on 
particular issues."  In this unofficial capacity, he met with 
the majority of MPs over the past week to discuss the Oil 
Minister grilling and reported that they were "very scared" 
about shouldering the costs of another election, particularly 
in the summer when air conditioning usage and costs soar (air 
conditioning an election tent when it's 110 degrees in the 
shade isn't cheap).  Shaykh Mohammed said political groups, 
even the highly-organized Islamic Constitutional Movement 
(ICM), were uncertain how to campaign in the new, larger 
electoral districts and that part of the strategy in holding 
early elections was to prevent them from getting sufficiently 
prepared.  The elections would also give observers a chance 
to see how the new system works in order to better prepare 
for the next elections. 
 
¶6.  (S/NF) Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah said some members of 
the ruling family, implicitly including himself, supported an 
unconstitutional dissolution - suspending Parliament for two 
to three years in order to move stalled legislation - but 
that this was unlikely to happen in the current political 
context.  Instead, he predicted continued tensions with 
Parliament would result in another constitutional dissolution 
next summer, particularly if the next Cabinet, like the last 
one, was chosen primarily to accommodate the various 
political blocs in Parliament.  Shaykh Mohammed complained 
that this strategy had only resulted in bringing the disputes 
between the blocs into the Government.  He believed the 
catalyst for the second dissolution would be an agreement 
between one of the opposition blocs in the new Parliament and 
the Government to pass the controversial 
Build-Operate-Transfer law, which would lead MP Ahmed 
Al-Saadoun to grill either the Finance Minister or the Prime 
Minister, provoking the dissolution.  According to him, the 
rationale behind the dissolutions was to force MPs to spend 
considerable amounts of their personal wealth getting 
re-elected and demonstrate that the Amir would not tolerate 
their constant attacks on the Government at the expense of 
development. 
 
¶7.  (S/NF) When asked, Shaykh Mohammed said regional tensions 
had "zero impact" on the leadership's calculus on whether or 
not to dissolve Parliament.  He explained that, based on the 
experience of the Iraqi invasion, the ruling family believed 
Kuwaitis would remain united even if the U.S. attacked Iran, 
Iran attacked Kuwait, or a civil war broke out in Lebanon. 
Although most Kuwaitis believe the Amir would not dare 
dissolve Parliament unless he received a "green light" from 
the U.S., Shaykh Mohammed said this was obviously not the 
case and "no one in the leadership has mentioned this as a 
factor at all."  His assessment was that Kuwait was not 
important enough to the U.S. for the Administration to get 
involved in such internal matters, particularly when the 
ruling family would never resort to "heavy-handed tactics" 
and the majority of Kuwaitis would support a dissolution. 
"As long as we don't use tear gas or take political 
prisoners, you will not intervene," he argued.  The 
Ambassador said he did not wish to offer any comment based on 
hypotheticals, but cautioned against making assumptions about 
the USG reaction in the event of an unconstitutional 
dissolution. 
 
¶8.  (S/NF) While focusing his criticism on the Parliament, 
Shaykh Mohammed also lamented the absence of strong 
leadership within the ruling family, which he argued was the 
ultimate source of the political problems facing the country. 
 He complained, for example, that if the Parliament was 
 
KUWAIT 00000882  003 OF 003 
 
 
dissolved the current leadership would be unwilling to pass 
long-stalled legislation by Amiri decree during the 
dissolution period, which would put the onus on the new 
Parliament to overturn it.  Such strong decision-making and 
leadership was critically lacking, he argued.  Shaykh 
Mohammed said the Prime Minister was "not doing a good job of 
playing the groups off each other" and predicted that in 
three to five years time, Kuwait could well have a Prime 
Minister who is not from the Al-Sabah family. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
 
LeBaron