VZCZCXRO2559
PP RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0594 1521118
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011118Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6210
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM CG
SUBJECT: TSHISEKEDI QUIETLY RETURNS TO DRC IN APPARENT ILL 
HEALTH 
 
 
Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Etienne Tshisekedi, president of the Union 
for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), quietly returned to 
Kinshasa May 28 after an extended stay in South Africa for 
medical treatment. UDPS officials acknowledge Tshisekedi, age 
74, is in ill health and has been given strict orders from 
his doctors to rest. Tshisekedi's condition has increased 
speculation regarding the future of the UDPS. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Tshisekedi returned to Kinshasa May 28 from 
Johannesburg where he had been for medical treatment, 
according to UDPS officials. Much like his departure April 7, 
Tshisekedi's return was low key, and apparently unannounced 
 
SIPDIS 
to most party members. The UDPS president has not made any 
public statements or appearances since arriving. 
 
¶3. (C) UDPS Secretary General Remy Masamba told PolOff May 31 
that Tshisekedi is in increasingly ill health. Those present 
at this airport to witness Tshisekedi's arrival said the UDPS 
president looked "weak" and needed assistance departing the 
airplane. Masamba said Tshisekedi has difficulty walking, in 
part because his vision has deteriorated significantly, 
making it difficult for him to maintain his balance. Masamba 
openly speculated the UDPS leader's mental capability is 
seriously diminished, adding to his physical ailments. (Note: 
Rumors concerning Tshisekedi's mental acuity have been 
circulating for some time. End note.) Tshisekedi, according 
to Masamba, has been ordered by his doctor to maintain strict 
rest, to refrain from public appearances and political 
activity, and not to receive visitors. Masamba said doctors 
counseled Tshisekedi that any additional stress could 
negatively impact his health. 
 
¶4. (C) Masamba said Tshisekedi first asked UDPS officials to 
organize a large rally for his return, originally scheduled 
for June 3. Tshisekedi then apparently changed his mind, 
telling Masamba and UDPS National Committee President 
Valentin Mubake to scrap any such plans since he would be 
arriving late in the day from South Africa. Then, Tshisekedi 
called Masamba May 27 to inform him he would be returning the 
following day, insisting again there be no public rally 
welcoming him home. Masamba said Tshisekedi's tone during 
these conversations was somber and dispirited, further 
confirming his own suspicions that the UDPS president was not 
in good health. 
 
¶5. (C) Given Tshisekedi's condition -- and possible inability 
to run the party -- speculation has increased among party 
insiders about the UDPS's future. Masamba told PolOff that 
were Tshisekedi to retire or pass away, the UDPS would most 
certainly split into differing factions. He explained the 
most likely scenario would be the creation of separate 
factions led by himself, by Mubake, and by Tshisekedi 
political adviser Jean-Joseph Mukendi. Masamba claimed 
(comment: not surprisingly) he would have the biggest number 
of followers, adding that Mubake would be rejected for being 
too much of a hard-liner, and that Mukendi would either align 
with him or be considered as too "tribalistic," as he is from 
the same region as Tshisekedi. Masamba further claimed he is 
not openly courting support from party members, but that 
Mubake likely is. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment: Regardless of Tshisekedi's health, the UDPS 
is a spent political force. Tshisekedi's miscalculation in 
2005 to boycott elections cost him and the UDPS dearly, and 
now the party finds itself both still out of power and 
supplanted as the DRC's leading opposition group. While his 
physical condition is likely deteriorating, Tshisekedi's 
demise has been erroneously predicted before. Masamba's 
theories of revitalizing the party notwithstanding, 
Tshisekedi's passing or retirement would likely spell the end 
 
SIPDIS 
of the UDPS. End comment. 
MEECE