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FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7109
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000468 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: ONE INSIDER'S AKP:  MISTAKES, POSSIBILITIES, 
LOOKING AHEAD 
 
REF: ISTANBUL 427 
 
Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  Metin Kulunk, an Istanbul-based Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) founding member and rival to Mehmet 
Muezzinoglu for AK Party's Istanbul Chairmanship, met with us 
May 23 to review his recent trip to the U.S. and share views 
of the AKP heading into parliamentary elections.  He was 
concerned the party may have missed a leadership opportunity 
for Turkey, cited former President and Prime Minister Ozal as 
a role model for governing, said economic growth was Turkey's 
leading requirement and argued a focus on the west was the 
right approach for Turkey's foreign policy.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Having lost a bid in 2003 for AKP Istanbul party 
chairman, Metin Kulunk founded a group among like-minded, 
conservative Istanbul AKP members to sponsor speakers focused 
on Turkey and its future.  This helps Kulunk maintain a 
profile in the party.  The group also affords him 
opportunities for engagement with ideas beyond the scope of 
more insular party activists.  Though not an English speaker, 
he indicates a growing interest in understanding and learning 
from U.S. political and civil society.  It was a revelation 
to him to learn that there are advocacy offices within the 
USG defending human rights, even against other USG 
bureaucracies. 
 
LOST CONFIDENCE 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Kulunk described Turkey as being at an historic 
juncture.  His party - he mentioned Parliamentary Speaker 
Arinc by name - missed (and perhaps mishandled) the 
opportunity to elect a president.  AKP was trying for another 
turn but much more effort and time were needed, he felt, to 
win this prize a second time around.  Recalling the debacle 
of 1961 when sitting PM Menderes was hung and President Bayar 
jailed, Kulunk said PM Erdogan had correctly called for early 
elections that diffused political tensions at a critical 
point.  He said that from his perspective, those opposing the 
direct election of the president in Turkey were not "aware" 
of the shared societal values of the Turkish people. 
 
¶4.  (C) Erdogan, however, seemed to have a penchant for 
increasing pressure, not releasing it.  Kulunk praised former 
PM and President Ozal who, he said, "raised Turkey's stature" 
without becoming involved in "questionable" issues, meaning 
ones that would draw and focus the ire of the powerful state 
secularists and military - whom he claimed were much stronger 
in Ozal's day.  Kulunk claimed Ozal was more statesman than 
politician and saw that Turkey had to integrate with the 
world at a time when passports were next to impossible to 
secure and imports were virtually non-existent.  AKP should 
strive, as Ozal had, to establish confidence within the 
political system while developing a fuller democracy - at the 
expense of the military.  Kulunk's concern:  confidence among 
the players in the system has now been lost. 
 
AND DAVUTOGLU HAS IT WRONG, TOO 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Kulunk said AKP founders had left the Refah (Welfare) 
Party because it grew too extreme, departing from the wishes 
of Turkish society.  AKP should stay focused on economic 
growth, not get sidetracked with issues like imam hatip 
schools, cartoons, etc.  Kulunk criticized Ahmet Davutoglu, 
chief architect of the Prime Minister's foreign policy, 
saying, "we have to pull out of the Middle East problems as 
soon as possible."  Perhaps reflecting insights from his 
foreign travel, he argued Turkey had little to offer in the 
Middle East and needed to correct "wrong signals" 
given regarding its own direction.  Turkey needed to stay 
focused on the west.  Kulunk thought it best to distance 
itself from problems of the region as soon as possible.  He 
said Turkey would remain an important player but needed to 
see its role in the "right terms."  Turkey should have been 
more outspoken with the U.S. on Iraq, for instance. 
 
¶6.  (C) But Turkey's focus should be its own problems, 
including human rights for headscarved women and Kurds.  Even 
the rights of "extreme atheists" needed protection.  Whoever 
understood this would "run the country."  It would take 
courage but AKP best understood this necessity and was best 
placed to push for these rights.  One desirable election 
outcome would be representation of the Democratic Society 
Party (DTP) - center-left Kurdish party - in the next 
parliament so that discussions of import to Turkey's Kurdish 
citizens take place within the framework of Turkish democracy 
 
ISTANBUL 00000468  002 OF 002 
 
 
rather than on the sidelines. 
 
NOW WHAT? 
--------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Kulunk suggested the July 22 election would be very 
different from the one in November 2002, despite the fact 
that new and existing opposition party platforms offer little 
more than anti-AK Party sloganeering.  Anticipating retired 
General and former Turkish NSC Secretary General Tuncer 
Kilinc's May 29 speech in London, Kulunk said the opposition 
served up anti-U.S. rhetoric and suggested alliances with 
Russia, China, and other Middle Eastern countries.  He 
predicted the future they envision wouldn't make people 
happy.  What were they thinking when 70% of the world's 
wealth is created in the U.S. and EU countries?  No, the 
Turkish public is demanding more wealth, suggesting "a 
millionaire in every neighborhood" might be a good election 
pitch for AKP this time around.  And Turkey needed to achieve 
peaceful co-existence for all points of view in the political 
spectrum. 
 
¶8.  (C) Unfortunately, while AKP's popularity in Istanbul 
stood at 45% on April 28 according to Kulunk's estimation, it 
has been fading due to the PM's "stubborn approach."  Still 
holding out hope for AKP to form a single-party government, 
Kulunk suggested that as many as four parties could cross the 
10% bar in July.  The most important surprise issue, he 
thought, would be Northern Iraq (read PKK activity in Turkey) 
between now and then. 
 
¶9.  (C) Comment. Kulunk is right to cite former President 
Ozal as someone to emulate.  New Democrat Party leader Agar 
recently cited President Bayar (reftel).  Bayar's reforms led 
to arrest and imprisonment; Ozal's led to the adoption of a 
more straight-forward western market economy, despite real 
discomfort on the part of traditional Kemalists.  Twenty 
years later, the transformation is everywhere to be seen, 
from Istanbul to the village.  AKP's top leadership may make 
- sometimes serious - mistakes, but they know that money 
makes the world go round.  End comment. 
JONES