VZCZCXRO8524
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0045/01 1791456
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 281456Z JUN 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0146
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0139
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0130
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0096
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD 
BAKU FOR HAUGEN; PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/28/2017 
TAGS: IR PGOV PREL KNNP KPLS
SUBJECT: PROFESSOR DISCUSSES DETAINED AMERICANS, NUCLEAR DISCUSSIONS, 
AND CIVIL SOCIETY IN IRAN 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000045  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S) Summary: A political science professor from Tehran who met 
with IRPOffs June 21 predicted that detained Iranian-American 
scholar Haleh Esfandiari would be released within a week or two, 
with bail.  The professor did not speak on any authority but 
made the prediction based on how past cases were handled.  The 
contact also predicted that the Iranian government would concede 
and accept suspension of enrichment - which they would see as 
surrender - by January or February 2008, and that by then the 
incentives package offered by the P5+1 would be off the table 
and Iran would get nothing in return.  He claimed that Deputy 
National Security Council Secretary Vaidi had told him, when he 
shared this prediction with him, not to put money onit.  The 
professor also confirmed that the government crackdown on 
academia and civil society is having a marked chilling effect on 
the intellectual sector of society, and that fewer people are 
willing to risk attending conferences in foreign countries.  The 
contact also said that Voice of America television is widely 
viewed in Iran and he regards it as credible and balanced, 
although Iranians assume that any program guests have the 
backing of the US government.  End Summary. 
 
Detained Americans 
------------------- 
 
2.(S) A political science professor who knows detained 
Iranian-American scholar Haleh Esfandiari predicted that she and 
the other detained Iranian-Americans would be released within a 
week or two, with bail.  He made clear he did not speak on any 
authority but made the prediction based on how past cases were 
handled, including Iranian-Canadian academic Ramin Jahanbegloo. 
The contact saw as a good sign the recent statement by an 
Iranian official that while the detainees had admitted to 
wrongdoing, they were working for good.  This, the professor 
said, could serve as a justification the government could give 
for their release.  He expressed disappointment that there was 
no avenue for him and others to lobby for their release.  All of 
the scholars who spoke at the Woodrow Wilson Center are nervous 
now, the contact said, adding that one of them he knew had been 
interrogated recently.  The professor said he himself was 
questioned in 2005 after going to a Track II conference in 
Athens and that many of the questions were about Haleh 
Esfandiari.  Based on this, he said, he had warned Esfandiari 
not to go to Iran.  (Note: A former deputy minister under 
President Khatami also predicted these detainees would be 
released soon, saying Iran realizes it is not getting anything 
for their detention and that Esfandiari's published works makes 
clear her neutral stance on US-Iran issues.  End note.) 
 
Nuclear discussions and sanctions 
--------------------------------- 
 
3.(S)  The professor also discussed the nuclear negotiations, 
predicting that the government would concede and accept 
suspension of enrichment - which they would see as surrender - 
by January or February 2008, and that by then the incentives 
package offered by the P5+1 would be off the table, and Iran 
would get nothing in return.  The contact claimed, however, to 
have shared his prediction  with Deputy National Security 
Council Secretary Vaidi who told him not to put money on it.  He 
said Vaidi told him - without explaining - that there was more 
to the issue than the nuclear issue.  The professor also 
repeated an Iranian government claim that even temporarily 
stopping the centrifuges from spinning would damage them. 
 
4.(S)  According to the professor, former nuclear negotiator 
Hossein Mousavian was released due to the intervention of 
Expediency Council chair Rafsanjani.  The contact, who claimed 
to know Mousavian from his association with the Expediency 
Council's Center for Strategic Research where Mousavian is the 
deputy, opined that the arrest was a warning to Mousavian to 
stop criticizing the president's administration in public.  He 
said Mousavian thought Iran should have accepted the P5+1 
incentives package, and along with some others on the left, 
supports suspension.  (Note: other contacts have also said there 
is a faction in Iranian circles, including Rafsanjani, that 
support suspension.  End note.) 
 
5.(C)  The contact opined that sanctions are hurting the 
economy, citing rumors that Iran has lost $200 billion in 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000045  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
foreign investment to Dubai.  (Note: The contact recounted a 
popular joke about rationing: A man asked a Nigerian, "What is 
your opinion about the rationing of chicken?" The Nigerian 
replies, "What is a chicken?"  He asks a Swiss man the same 
question.  The Swiss man replies, "What is rationing?"  He asks 
an Iranian the same question, and the Iranian replies, "What is 
an opinion?"  End note.) 
 
Important regime figures, corruption 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.(C) Asked about where President Ahmadi-Nejad ranks on the list 
of most important people in the Iranian government, the contact 
placed him in the top five.  The most important person is 
Supreme Leader Khamenei, he said; then Expediency Council chair 
Rafsanjani, Guardian Council chair Jannati, Assembly of Experts 
chair Meshkini, President Ahmadi-Nejad, IRGC commander Safavi, 
Judiciary chief Shahrudi, and Islamic Coalition Party head 
Asgaroladi. 
 
7.(S)  On the topic of corruption, the contact said that though 
Iranians view Rafsanjani and his family as corrupt because they 
use connections and access to amass personal wealth, President 
Ahmadi-Nejad reportedly taking 350 million tomans (approx. USD 
337,000) from the Tehran municipality for his presidential 
campaign is not seen as corruption because it was not for 
personal use.  In contrast to Rafsanjani's sons, the Supreme 
Leader's sons stay out of business and therefore are not 
regarded as corrupt.  Asked about the Supreme Leader's son 
Mojtaba, the contact said he has some behind-the-scenes power 
and is said to be link to the paramilitary group Ansar-e 
Hizballah.  The contact also said that the Supreme Leader's 
office has 2-3 billion dollars per year to dispense, including 
to other countries. Asked about Iranian public opinion of its 
government's actions in Iraq, the contact said that people 
resent the fact that Iran sends money to Iraq and to Palestinian 
groups that is needed at home. 
 
Civil society and polling 
------------------------- 
 
8.(C)  The professor said that the crackdown on civil society 
and the arrests of Iranian-American scholars have had a chilling 
effect on the academic and NGO community in Iran.  Scholars who 
attend conferences in foreign countries are regularly 
interrogated or even arrested upon their return, he said. 
(Note:  While the professor acknowledged that government 
intimidation of civil society has been quite effective, he still 
plans to travel to the US for a conference in July.  End note.) 
 
9.(C)  In the case of Ayatollah Boroujerdi, the dissident cleric 
who was arrested in 2006 along with several of his followers, 
the contact said he has seen rumors in the press that Boroujerdi 
had received the death penalty by the religious court, but he 
said it would be very unusual for the government to carry out 
such a sentence against a cleric.  He said that even in cases of 
non-clerics accused of apostasy, such as scholar Hashem 
Aghajari, the death sentence was overturned and he was released. 
 
10.(S) The contact claimed that several NGOs are actually run by 
the Intelligence Ministry (MOIS).  For example, he said it was 
widely known in the academic and NGO community that the Research 
Institute for Strategic Studies is affiliated with MOIS, even 
though it claims to be affiliated with the Education Ministry. 
The contact said that MOIS conducts public opinion polls through 
NGO cut-outs.  According to him, the most reliable polls are 
conducted by MOIS, but the results are never released to the 
public.  In general, he said, polling in Iran is unreliable. 
Iranians tend to be wary of pollsters because they are never 
sure to whom they are speaking. 
 
 
Elections and voting, Voice of America 
-------------------------------------- 
 
11.(S)  Asked his opinion about prospects for the 2008 Majles 
elections, the professor said he does not expect much change. 
He predicted that the Guardian Council will again disqualify 
many reformist candidates.  The professor allowed, however that 
more centrist-rightists could predominate in next elections. 
The contact criticized voting procedures in Iran as ripe for 
abuse, saying there are no voting districts or voter's 
registration.  Iranians simply present their identity card at 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000045  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
any polling station anywhere in the country in order to vote. 
Iranians can even vote for Majles representatives in districts 
where they do not reside.  (Note: another contact who reportedly 
worked in the past on the staff of the Guardian Council claimed 
that there are 90 million national identity cards in a country 
with a population of 70 million, inferring the potential for 
massive fraud.  End note.) 
 
12.(C)  The professor added that voting for the five designated 
religious minority Majles representatives is nominally limited 
to members of the respective religious minorities, but since 
religion is not indicated on the national identity card, it can 
be difficult to enforce.  The polling stations for those five 
elections are generally centers of worship, or community centers 
belonging to the designated religious minorities.  The contact 
added that during the Khatami presidency, religious minorities 
petitioned to be issued separate identity cards that indicated 
religion.  This was reportedly in order to protect them being 
punished for violating restrictions placed on Muslims, but not 
non-Muslims; for example, possession of alcohol. 
 
13.(C)  Regarding Voice of America broadcasts, the professor 
claimed that VOA programs are widely viewed and that he hears 
all different kinds of people taking about them.  The professor 
regards VOA programming as generally credible and balanced, 
although he conceded that Iranians tend to believe that whoever 
is a guest on VOA programs is supported by the US government. 
For example, he said, when Reza Pahlavi was on VOA and was 
referred to as the "prince," Iranians assumed that the USG 
supports the monarchist cause; then, when a nationalist is 
featured on the program, people assume the USG supports Iranian 
nationalists. 
 
14.(S)  Comment:  We would assess this political science 
professor, known for several years, as a generally reliable 
contact, although his direct contact with influential actors in 
Iran is unknown.  In addition to his academic work, he is 
involved in civil society, particularly on women's issues.  He 
is not a general advocate of US-Iran engagement, expressing fear 
in a previous meeting that if Iran reaches a nuclear deal with 
the US, the US would turn its back on human rights in Iran. 
IRPoffs assured him that even if the international community 
reaches an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue, the US 
would maintain its emphasis on the rights of the Iranian people. 
BURNS