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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000552 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC SADC KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 18 - ANOTHER GOVERNANCE 
SETBACK 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 2209 
     ¶B. HARARE 205 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Parliament is due to debate the proposed 
Constitutional Amendment 18 when it re-opens in late July. 
The Amendment Bill has provisions for holding simultaneous 
presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2008; it 
strengthens the Executive's control over Parliament by 
substantially increasing the number of seats in Parliament as 
well as the number of representatives appointed by the 
Executive rather than elected; it expands the opportunity for 
gerrymandering; and it proposes a toothless new Human Rights 
Commission made up of Executive nominees.  The Amendment is a 
major setback to the Parliamentary reform agenda and it opens 
up a new source of patronage to soothe frustrations and 
create positions for ZANU-PF cronies.  Its passage would 
ensure/protect Mugabe,s future while also further sapping 
the beleaguered treasury.  However, we understand that the 
GOZ indicated at the GOZ/MDC talks in Pretoria that it would 
not push Constitutional Amendment 18 forward (ref A) and that 
it has instructed the Commission that determines/gerrymanders 
constituencies to stop its work.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
Key Changes and Window Dressing 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Key changes proposed by Constitution of Zimbabwe 
Amendment (No. 18) Bill, which was gazetted on June 8 and is 
due to be presented to Parliament in late July, are: 
 
-- Shortening of the term of office of the President from 6 
to 5 years (N.B. President Mugabe would complete his 6-year 
term in 2008; the present parliamentary term, begun in 2005, 
would be cut back by two years to coincide with the 2008 
presidential election.  Both terms would then be on a 5-year 
cycle.); 
-- In the event that a President resigns, dies or is removed 
from office, election of a successor to complete the term of 
office by an electoral college consisting of the Senate and 
House of Assembly sitting jointly; 
-- Increase in the size of the Senate from 66 to 84 members; 
-- Increase in the size of the House of Assembly from 150 to 
210 members; 
-- Allowing a constituency to be delineated with up to 25 
percent more or fewer registered voters than the average. 
 
Several further proposed changes fall in the category of 
window dressing, including: 
 
-- Establishment of a Human Rights Commission 
-- Making the House of Assembly alone responsible for voting 
on motions of no confidence in the Government and resolutions 
 
HARARE 00000552  002 OF 004 
 
 
for the confirmation of extension of states of public 
emergency. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
A Stacked Parliament; "Urban" Chiefs; Gerrymandering 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3. (C) John Makamure, the director of the USG-funded 
parliamentary support project implemented by the State 
University of New York (SUNY), and his associate Israel 
Chilimanzi pointed out to econoff on June 18 that the 
Amendment substantially expanded the Executive's influence 
over the composition of the Senate and Parliament by 
providing for the appointment - not election - of 34 out of 
84 (40 percent) of the Senators.  The number of Senators 
elected by voters would remain at 50 but be supplemented by 
the governors of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces and an additional 8 
Chiefs beyond the present 16; two of the new eight would 
represent "metropolitan provinces."  In the House of 
Assembly, 200 out of 210 members would be elected.  (Comment: 
Padding the Senate with Mugabe cronies also dilutes the 
strength of the Mujuru faction in Parliament which is 
concentrated in the lower House.  End Comment) 
 
¶4. (C) Makamure commented that appointing two Chiefs to 
represent urban areas departed markedly from cultural norms 
by imposing the rural tradition of chieftainship on an urban 
population of different totems.  It effectively created a 
ZANU-PF counterweight to the MDC's strength in Harare and 
Bulawayo.  He added that by allowing the Delimitation 
Commission, whose members are appointed by Mugabe and which 
determines district boundaries, to diverge 25 percent from 
the average constituency size (up from the present 20 percent 
limit) it expanded the scope for gerrymandering.  The 
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) believes the clause 
is intended to allow the redrawing of urban constituencies in 
Harare and Bulawayo to incorporate adjacent rural areas. 
 
¶5. (C) Since Mugabe's successor would be determined by an 
electoral college consisting of both Houses of Parliament in 
the event of Mugabe's resignation or his removal from office 
) an undemocratic proposal in itself - the new composition 
would ensure that Parliament elected a successor in Mugabe's 
best interest and one that would protect him in retirement, 
as well.  However, although the Amendment provides a 
mechanism to allow him to step down gracefully some time 
after the March 2008 elections, assuming he won, the two 
parliamentary experts did not believe Mugabe would go that 
route.  On the contrary, he would cling to power 
indefinitely.  They regarded the electoral college clause in 
the Amendment as "a decoy" to get people's votes. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Major Setback to Parliamentary Reforms 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Chilimanzi doubted that a new Parliament, "stuffed" 
by ZANU-PF loyalists, would maintain the momentum of seven 
years of parliamentary reform efforts that the SUNY program 
 
HARARE 00000552  003 OF 004 
 
 
had undertaken to make the Executive accountable (Ref B).  He 
anticipated that the large influx of new MPs would erode the 
gains of the portfolio committee system, which encouraged 
specialization and expertise.  In his view, it was likely 
that the opposition party would lose the chairmanship of 
three or four committees and that the chairpersons would be 
replaced by "non performers."  Worse yet, he anticipated that 
most of the new group of MPs would be resistant to change. 
In his view, the Amendment opened up a new source of 
patronage by creating positions for cronies and soothing 
frustrations within the party. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Toothless New Human Rights Commission 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Makamure was scornful of the proposed 9-member Human 
Rights Commission.  Under Amendment 18, the President would 
appoint the Chairman of the Commission.  The eight other 
members would be appointed by the President from a list of 16 
nominees submitted to the Committee on Standing Rules and 
Order (SROC) - the supreme decision-making organ of 
Parliament.  Dominated by ZANU-PF and the Executive, SROC's 
membership includes both Vice Presidents, the Minister of 
Justice and the Minister of Finance.  Furthermore, the 
Commission's role would be limited to carrying out inquiries 
and making recommendations without any obligation by the 
Executive to abide by its recommendations.  Makamure called 
the Commission "political window dressing" and a mere 
extension of the existing ineffective office of the 
Ombudsman. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Meaningless Vote-of-No-Confidence Clause 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Amendment 18 gives the House of Assembly alone the 
power to declare a state of emergency and vote on motions of 
no confidence in the government, whereas the current 
Constitution grants the authority jointly to both Houses of 
Parliament.  Makamure pointed out that although the Amendment 
appears to empower the House of Assembly in this regard, in 
reality the President still has the power to dissolve 
Parliament. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Neither Space nor Money for New Legislators 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Office and meeting space in Parliament is at a 
premium with infrastructure and support systems barely 
upgraded since the institution had 120 members in the early 
1980s.  Makamure lamented the deterrent effect of the 
shortage of space on public access to Parliament and on 
stakeholder attendance at committee meetings.  Expanding 
Parliament to 294 legislators would only exacerbate the 
problem. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) He added that the induction and orientation of new 
 
HARARE 00000552  004 OF 004 
 
 
members required a massive injection of technical and 
financial resources that the treasury could ill afford; 
Parliament had already overspent by about Z$50 billion its 
Z$13 billion budget allocation for 2007.  Under the new 
Amendment, expenditures on salaries, wages, travel and 
accommodation would rise sharply, not to mention the 
anticipated huge foreign-exchange capital expenditure on new 
vehicles for all legislators.  Makamure estimated the vehicle 
scheme alone would cost the GOZ US$17.6 million for the new 
Parliament, as the soft loan terms in a hyperinflationary 
environment left the GOZ footing the bill in reality. 
 
------------------------------- 
ZANU-PF MPs "Whipped into Line" 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) The Amendment appears to have the support of 
two-third of the House of Assembly and Senate to ensure its 
passage once it comes before Parliament.  Chilimanzi told us 
he anticipated no dissension among the ZANU-PF legislators, 
as they had been "whipped into line." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) The obvious intention of the bill is to ensure that 
Mugabe consolidates his present power and secures his future 
safety.  The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) has 
gone so far as to suggest that the bill could be interpreted 
to extend Mugabe's term until 2010 and synchronize elections 
then, rather than in 2008.    However, we understand that the 
GOZ indicated at the GOZ/MDC talks in Pretoria that it would 
not push Constitutional Amendment 18 forward (ref A). 
Furthermore, MDC MP Trudy Stevenson told the Ambassador on 
June 21 that the Delimitation Commission that 
determines/gerrymanders constituencies had been instructed to 
stop its work.  Whether the GOZ makes good on these promises 
and takes further positive  steps will be a test of its 
seriousness in the GOZ/MDC talks. 
DELL