VZCZCXRO2465
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #1034/01 1521036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011036Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5536
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 3156
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001034 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PREL CH VM
 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SHOCKER: COMMUNIST PARTY COMES OUT ON TOP 
REF :A) HANOI 921; B) HCMC 579; C) HCMC 548 
 
HANOI 00001034  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) On May 29, the National Assembly released the results of 
its May 20 election, and the make-up of the legislature will not 
differ markedly from the previous assembly: of the 497 seats in the 
body, non-Communist Party candidates won 43 seats, women 127 seats 
and ethnic minorities 87 seats.  Furthermore, only one of the 30 
self-nominated candidates was elected.  The first task for this 12th 
National Assembly, which is expected to convene its first session in 
late July, will be to approve a new cabinet.  The Communist Party 
clearly stuck to its plan to "ensure the political safety of the 
election, preventing all violations of the law and fighting abuse." 
With more than half of the new assembly "freshmen," it may take some 
time for the legislature to find its bearings, but we expect it to 
continue to play an increasingly vocal government oversight role. 
End Summary. 
 
The NA's New Faces 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) On May 29, the National Assembly (NA) announced the results 
of its May 20 election.  With over 99 percent of Vietnam's over 56 
million eligible voters casting ballots, the results were similar to 
those of the last election in 2002.  493 candidates (out of a total 
of 875 candidates) won seats and, to no one's surprise, Communist 
Party of Vietnam (CPV) leading lights, including Prime Minister 
Nguyen Tan Dzung, Party Chief Nong Duc Manh, President Nguyen Minh 
Triet and NA Chairman Nguyen Phu Trong were handily returned. 
Non-Party candidates won 43 seats (almost 9 percent), women took 127 
seats (about 26 percent) and ethnic minorities won 87 seats (nearly 
18 percent).  Only one out of the 30 self-nominated candidates won. 
Some 355 deputies (or 72 percent, as in 2002) in the new legislature 
-- the 12th National Assembly -- will be freshmen.  The 11th NA 
consisted of 51 non-Party members, 136 women and 86 ethnic 
minorities, and this time fewer business representatives won seats 
(14 from the private sector and 12 from the state sector). 
 
¶3. (SBU) On May 30, General Secretary of the Electoral Council Bui 
Ngoc Thanh said some of the above-mentioned statistics fell below 
"targets."  The GVN had hoped to get 50 non-Party members as 
delegates, while women had been expected to win 150 seats of the new 
NA, Thanh said.  The National Assembly also expected at least 160 
delegates from the 11th NA to be re-elected (only 138 were 
returned). 
 
¶4. (SBU) Twelve out of the 165 candidates nominated by central 
government and Party offices failed to win seats, a record number. 
In previous elections, Vietnam experienced isolated incidents of 
centrally-nominated candidates failing to win.  The Electoral 
Council's Thanh took pains to point out that, this time, some 
actively serving GVN officials lost.  He attributed their defeats to 
their poor policy platforms and/or lack of professional skills and 
highlighted the fact that three centrally-nominated candidates 
failed to win seats in Ho Chi Minh City.  One of these candidates 
currently is a Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission, and 
he is seen as a relatively progressive candidate by HCMC contacts. 
A number of other progressive local figures in HCMC also failed to 
win. 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to longtime political watcher Tran Nhung, a 
Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Veteran Affairs Journal, the fact that 
some centrally-nominated candidates did not win is a sign of 
"improved democracy" in Vietnam.  Nowadays, common citizens do not 
blindly follow CPV instructions, he asserted.  However, it is a pity 
that the CPV did not allow more independent or self-nominated 
candidates run in the election.  Furthermore, a number of highly 
respected Party members from intellectual circles might have won had 
they been allowed to run, Nhung added, citing the example of the 
outspoken, but popular and capable former Vice Minister of Natural 
Resources and Environment Dang Hung Vo.  The GVN blundered in not 
taking advantage of these people's skills; they would have given the 
NA a "totally different make-up," Nhung told Poloff. 
 
Looking Ahead 
------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The 12th NA is scheduled to convene its first session this 
July.  The first task for the new NA will be the approval of a new 
cabinet (expected to be announced later this month).  The deputies 
are expected to "reappoint" Triet, Dzung and Trong.  However, 
current ministers and vice ministers who were elected to the CPV's 
Central Committee at the April 2006 10th Party Congress are expected 
to get higher positions in the new Government, while those who 
failed to be elected to, or to remain on, the Central Committee will 
likely step down, according to Nhung.  At this first session, 
deputies also are expected to discuss a report on the country's 
 
HANOI 00001034  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
socio-economic state, as well as overall development targets for 
¶2007. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) A Poliburo resolution issued months before the May 20 
election tasked the Party to "ensure the political safety of the 
election, preventing all violations of the law and fighting the 
abuse of rights and plots aimed at tarnishing the poll."  The Party 
clearly stuck to its plan.  The CPV ensured that dissidents who had 
become more vocal about the need for political change did not 
disrupt the election and it painstakingly vetted all NA candidates. 
That said, the last NA gradually strengthened its oversight role, 
grilling ministers about their policies and staffing choices.  We 
expect the 12th NA to continue this role, although it may take time 
for the new, and still inexperienced, members to get their bearings. 
 End Comment. 
 
MARINE