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FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
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INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CONAKRY 000710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM SOCI GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA'S CRISIS IS FAR FROM OVER 
 
REF: CONAKRY 593 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (C) Over the last six months, Guinea has experienced one 
of the most tumultuous periods in its history.  The popular 
social movement that swept through the nation demonstrated 
the power of the streets to effectuate change, yet there have 
been few transformations in the daily functioning of the 
state.  While Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate continues to 
enjoy popular support, President Lansana Conte maintains his 
strong hold on power and Conte's inner circle continues to 
block fundamental reforms.  The "consensus" cabinet has 
become a thin facade for a dysfunctional government that has 
neither been restructured nor reformed to reflect a new 
vision embodied by the Prime Minister.  Kouyate has failed to 
get staffing approved for his ministries and there have been 
no new governors, prefects, or sub-prefects put into place to 
administer the rest of the nation.  In most government 
offices, activities are at a standstill.  There is a clear 
power struggle as the Prime Minister attempts to get his 
people on board, while Conte and his clan maintain their 
coterie in the positions that count. 
 
¶2.  (C) In this context, the population is once again 
becoming impatient.  With unrealistically high expectations 
for the "consensus" government, many have expressed 
disappointment with persistent blockages and lack of concrete 
results.  Increasingly, Guineans are identifying President 
Conte as the root of all problems.  As Prime Minister Kouyate 
returned from an apparently successful trip to the U.S., 
France, and Libya, Conte proclaimed his position as "chief" 
with all others his "subordinates".  Although there are 
currently a divisions among the labor unions, civil society, 
and the political parties, with each fighting over what role 
they should play, all agree that the current situation will 
inevitably lead to another crisis.  With a re-alignment of 
opposition parties and a fragmented PUP, Guinea's political 
class is planning for next steps.  With elections still 
months away, most Guineans predict that "something" has to 
happen in order to break the log jam that currently plagues 
the nation.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
First 100 Days Yield Few Reforms 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) After taking an extended period of time to name his 
cabinet, Prime Minister Kouyate finally announced ON MARCH 28 
the names of the individuals who would lead the "consensus" 
government.  In the three months since the appointments, the 
Prime Minister has been extremely visible and open with 
communications, but with few concrete results.  While Kouyate 
streamlined and re-organized the ministries, no 
administrative staffing changes have been made, even within 
the Prime Minister's own office.  In some cases (like the 
Ministry of Education), there remain three secretaries 
general and all the directorates and divisions remain exactly 
as they were within the old government structure.  In the 
ministries, most of the leadership is convinced they will 
lose their jobs, and staff does not know to whom to report. 
In most offices, work is at a standstill with no clearly 
delineated roles and responsibilities.  While the Prime 
Minister and his cabinet concluded their recent retreat with 
a list of priorities (reftel), it is difficult to see how any 
progress can be made toward them given the current situation 
with regard to staffing and appointments.  Average citizens 
have begun to question whether they will enjoy the "fruits" 
of their demands for change during the January-February 
general strike or whether the sacrifices were all in vain. 
 
¶4.  (C) When Kouyate entered office, he promised to 
re-instate control over the administration of the state and 
to repair the destruction that took place in "30 of Guinea's 
33 prefectures."  To date, the Prime Minister has still not 
named the governors, prefects, and sub-prefects to administer 
the interior.  Kouyate has reportedly presented numerous 
lists to President Conte, with each being systematically 
rejected.  Guineans regard these appointments as a litmus 
test for the Prime Minister.  Without state administrators, 
many have argued that no reconstruction or development 
efforts can be implemented and that election preparations 
cannot even begin.  While the Prime Minister still enjoys 
widespread public support in the interior, our contacts have 
 
CONAKRY 00000710  002 OF 004 
 
 
told us that in most areas, the population is becoming 
increasingly restless and question whether the Prime Minister 
is able lead Guinea through this transitional period. 
 
-------------------- 
I am Still In Charge 
-------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) At the same time that the Prime Minister was wrapping 
up his recent trip to the U.S., France, and Libya, President 
Conte was flexing his muscle back at home.  While Guineans 
wait to hear the results of the visits abroad, they were 
instead reminded of Conte's hold over the state.  In an 
impromptu interview with AFP on June 15, President Conte made 
it clear that he has not conceded his power to the Prime 
Minister.  When asked by the reporter whether one can speak 
of a transition period, Conte emphatically replied, "there is 
no transition in Guinea.  I am the chief, the others are my 
deputies and my subordinates.  That's all!  There is no 
transition here!"  Conte downplayed Guinea's recent crisis as 
a moment provoked by misunderstandings that are now in its 
past -- problems that exist in all democratic nations.  The 
interview took place when Conte dropped in on his close 
friend and ally, controversial businessman, Futurelec 
president, and honorary president of the majority PUP party 
Mamadou Sylla. 
 
¶6.  (C) While both Conte and Kouyate publicly state that 
relations between them are good, many insiders have told us 
that tensions are high.  Former Prime Minister and opposition 
leader Sidya Toure told Poloff in a recent meeting that 
Kouyate has failed by not marking his territory clearly and 
early.  Toure said that it is already too late and that it 
was just a matter of time before Kouyate either quits or is 
either dismissed.  In his interview, Presdient Conte alluded 
to the familiar fate of his past prime ministers:  "If I name 
one, it is because I want one.  If not, I have always led 
Guinea without a Prime Minister.  Sometimes, I take one and 
we do not get along and he goes -- it is he who goes.  Me, I 
stay."  Some have begun to speculate how long Prime Minister 
Kouyate can fight against the tide.  President Conte and his 
coterie continue to pull the strings behind the scenes and 
have effectively stymied any advances or reforms that the 
Prime Minister and his cabinet attempt. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Political Positioning and Strengthened Opposition 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7.  (C) As the "consensus" government struggles to hit its 
stride, the popular consensus among civil society, unions, 
party members, and average citizens that brought it to power 
has disintegrated.  While the unions clearly took the lead 
during the general strike and protests of January-February, 
they were backed by opposition party leaders who encouraged 
their constituents to support the movement.  Now, there are 
accusations going in all directions about the roles and 
responsibilities of civil society at large versus the 
political class.  Political parties have made it clear that 
Guinea's constitution only allows them to present candidates 
for election.  By using this argument, they have attempted to 
discredit the ascension of the Prime Minister, describing 
Kouyate as isolated with no political base.  At the same 
time, there is a common belief that civil society leaders 
stepped into a void and succeeding where political parties 
have failed. 
 
¶8.  (C) As political parties attempt to redefine themselves 
and prepare to participate in the electoral process, the 
opposition is gaining steam.  Upon the announcement of 
Mamadou Sylla as honorary president of the majority PUP 
party, most of the smaller parties allied with the PUP broke 
rank (reftel).  These parties known as the "Mouvance" are now 
aligned with the major opposition leaders.  In May, 14 
parties from the Mouvance joined Sidya Toure's Union of 
Republican Forces (UFR) to create the National Alliance for 
Democracy (ANAD) that Toure claims is also allied with other 
major opposition leaders.  Also in May, eleven parties from 
the Mouvance aligned with Alpha Conde and his Rally of 
Guinean People (RPG) to create the Coalition of Live Forces 
for Change.  Parliamentary opposition leader Ousmane Bah, 
President of the Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR), told 
Poloff that his party is still in negotiation with others to 
form yet another coalition.  These new political alliances 
reflect a stronger and more mature opposition, positioning 
itself to have much greater influence in the legislative 
elections.  All are talking seriously about the ramifications 
of legislative elections, particularly how to make the 
National Assembly a true counterweight to the regime and 
 
CONAKRY 00000710  003 OF 004 
 
 
using it to constitutionally change the pendulum of power. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Living Conditions Degrade and Prices Rise 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) While political positioning continues, the 
"bread-and-butter" issues that face the majority of the 
population are far from resolved.  Economic conditions remain 
dire and, for many, it remains a daily struggle to feed their 
families.  Guinea's citizens believed the appointment of a 
Prime Minister as Head of Government would automatically 
create the conditions necessary to improve their quality of 
life.  While Kouyate emphasizes the provision of water and 
electricity as his most urgent priorities, few improvements 
have been made in either sector.  Some complain that the 
public utilities have even worsened.  While most understand 
that an overhaul of the public utilities will take time, 
Kouyate's team has failed to deliver immediate fixes or a 
concrete plan of action to address these basic services. 
 
¶10.  (C) Part of the January strike settlement was to fix the 
prices of basic necessities and to ban exports of foodstuffs 
and other products the unions argued should remain in the 
local market.  Although prices initially decreased, Guineans 
have now begun to complain about their steady rise.  The 
CNTG-USTG union coalition has begun to make clear statements 
demanding lower prices.  On June 19, the Prime Minister met 
with the interministerial committee responsible for price 
controls to discuss measures to decrease the prices of 
essential food items.  The committee adopted a measure to 
more strongly enforce the export ban on food items, timber, 
and petroleum products.  Now that Guinea's rainy season has 
begun, the population is bracing for the increases in food 
prices that normally occur at this time of year.  However, 
they are now calling into force the signed agreement on price 
levels and demanding that the government do its part to 
maintain prices that are blow normal market values.  Some 
union leaders have told us that if the government does not 
uphold its side of the negotiated agreement, they will once 
again begin strike preparations. 
 
------------------------------- 
Ethnic Card Increasingly Played 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) In the midst of the growing uncertainty, in recent 
weeks, anonymous and virulently discriminatory papers 
"documenting" various plots by ethnic groups to keep or gain 
power have made their rounds in Guinea's major cities.  These 
ethnic tracts accuse one ethnic group of using the strikes 
and related violence to gain advantage over another in 
securing its hold on power.  In a recent meeting with the 
Ambassador, President of the National Assembly Aboubacar 
Sompare employed an over-simplistic ethnic model to describe 
the current climate.  Sompare claimed that there would be no 
more strikes because the Soussou ethnic group realized that 
recent events disadvantaged them -- they would throw their 
support behind Conte to ensure their position. 
 
¶12.  (C)  Public discussion of the "ethnic factor" is no 
longer taboo.  Sompare's comments reflect a growing trend by 
entrenched members of Guinea's old school political class as 
they revert to old ways of thinking and doing business. 
While most Guineans refuse to play the ethnic card, they 
acknowledge that powerful actors are trying to use these 
divisions to prevent any new wave of united popular action. 
At present, Conte loyalists (many of whom found their 
property under attack by violent mobs in February) are now 
beginning to re-emerge and make their presence felt. 
 
------------------------------ 
Comment:  This is Not Finished 
------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (C) In what has become a familiar refrain, Guineans of 
every stripe have told us the popular movement unleashed at 
the beginning of the year is far from over.  Despite Conte's 
assurances that Guinea's problems are all now in its past, 
all indications are that tensions are on the rise as the "old 
guard" and the "reformers" continue their battle for the 
future direction of Guinea.  Despite his best efforts, Prime 
Minister Kouyate has thus far not shown that he can keep the 
forces of the past at bay.  With growing pressure for 
concrete action, Kouyate's team has produced few results. 
With frustrations rising, the population has started 
preparing for what they feel is an inevitable next phase of 
Guinea's crisis.  Some have predicted that it might be 
unleashed with a new strike that may gain momentum in 
 
CONAKRY 00000710  004 OF 004 
 
 
September while others believe that the legislative elections 
may become the next flash point.  While the time frame 
remains unclear, there is an almost unanimous belief that 
"something" will happen. 
 
¶14.  (C) Increasingly, Guinean citizens are once again 
voicing their belief that President Conte is the main source 
of Guinea's problems.  Many have expressed their support of 
Prime Minister Kouyate's capacity and in the ability of most 
(but not all) members of the Prime Minister's team.  They 
insist that the cabinet is unable to work because of 
systematic roadblocks set by Conte and his coterie.  Others 
insist that no matter how capable Kouyate mayt be, the Prime 
Minister is merely a puppet being controlled by Guinea's 
entrenched interests.  While political opposition, union, and 
civil society leaders are posturing, it is unclear who might 
take the first step to re-ignite the movement for change. 
Over the next few months, it remains to be seen if the Prime 
Minister can assert his leadership or who might step in to 
fill the void. 
MCDONALD