VZCZCXRO9105
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #1059/01 1800535
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 290535Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1508
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2012 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINRHU
SUBJECT: ORBAN ON ORBAN: FIDESZ PRESIDENT ON THE 
OPPOSITION'S LEADERSHIP AND STRATEGY 
 
REF: A) BUDAPEST 823 B) BUDAPEST 1043 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: P/E Counselor Eric V. Gaudiosi: Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Meeting with Ambassador Foley June 27 to discuss 
energy security and the transatlantic relationship (septel), 
FIDESZ president Viktor Orban also reviewed his plans to 
"professionalize" the party leadership and his strategy for 
the months - and years - ahead. 
 
BUDAPEST UNDERGROUND 
 
¶2.  (C) A relaxed and often puckish Orban took "the 
historical perspective" in reviewing FIDESZ's progress from 
"underground youth movement" in the 80s to governing party in 
the 90s.  He admitted that FIDESZ had been "a better 
government than a party," and believes that they have only 
recently established a solid national foundation.  He 
contrasted FIDESZ's momentum with the MSZP's machine, which 
traditionally "runs good campaigns" but has not modernized in 
recent years.  Nor can they do so now, he maintained, since 
"you can't build support when everyone hates your policies." 
 
"STRONG ENOUGH TO DELEGATE"? 
 
¶3.  (C) Looking back on the FIDESZ party elections (ref a), 
Orban outlined the division of responsiblity within the party 
leadership and emphasized that he is "strong enough to 
delegate": 
 
Mihalj Varga: An MP from Karcag and former Minister of 
Economy, Varga has been designated as the party's senior VP 
and Orban's deputy.  The highest vote-getter among the 
candidates, Varga is a moderate but seen as closer to Orban 
than the other VPs.  Orban commented that Varga will have 
"all rights when I'm not available," quipping that "I'm not 
old but you never know what will happen." 
 
Lajos Kosa: Orban described the popular mayor of Debrecen 
(and potential party rival) as "a free spirit ... but an 
entertaining one."  As "President of the Independent Republic 
of Debrecen," Orban joked, Kosa has become indispensible. 
Although he has asked Kosa to organize FIDESZ efforts to 
bring local initiatives to national attention, he still 
considers him "the enfant terrible of the party." 
 
Ildiko Pelczne Gal: Also the president of the FIDESZ women's 
organization, Gal is in charge of the party's "most energetic 
activists."  Orban noted, however, that the former professor 
of economics tends to "focus on problems - not on the people 
affected by problems."  He made clear his preference for 
"targeting the heart, not the head." 
 
Zoltan Pokorni: Orban glossed over reported friction with 
Pokorni (who often beats him in popularity polls), 
emphasizing his desire to focus on his "enormous 
responsibilities" as Mayor of Budapest's District XII and 
noting that he is "in negotiation with him now" to lead 
FIDESZ's preparations for the spring referendum (ref c).  A 
former teacher and not "a street fighter like me," Orban 
believes Pokorni will be "perfect for the job" of building 
support in civil society. 
 
REFERENDUM: MORE THAN JUST QUESTIONS 
 
¶4.  (C) Focusing on the referendum (ref b), Orban commented 
that it will be "about more than just the questions on the 
ballot."  FIDESZ will portray the referendum as a national 
vote of confidence in PM Gyurcsany and as an opportunity to 
respond to the "government campaign against society."  Orban 
hopes to collect over 2 million signatures - ten times the 
required number to authorize the referendum and 25% of 
Hungary's electorate.  The signature drive, he continued, 
will also help update the party's databases, further 
"mobilizing" for the elections of 2010. 
 
¶5.  (C) Discussing demographics, Orban remarked half-jokingly 
- but only half-jokingly - that "after 2014 we can't lose." 
It is a "secret fact" of Hungarian politics, he continued, 
that age is the overwhelming determinant in Hungarian voting 
patterns.  "FIDESZ has a huge advantage among the under-25 
bloc," while the MSZP's base is "over-55."  The Gyurcsany 
government, he believes, has managed to outrage both groups 
by proposing fees on tuition and on health care.  The 
challenge for FIDESZ, he concluded, is "not to rest on our 
laurels" and to focus on "winning in 2010" rather than 
"waiting for 2014." 
 
GOVERNMENT-IN-WAITING ... AND WAITING 
 
 
BUDAPEST 00001059  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Toward that end, FIDESZ is making clear that it is 
preparing to govern.  Responding to our question re the 
possibility of a shadow cabinet, Orban replied that it is 
"obvious who's who" in the party.  He detailed FIDESZ's 
"cabinet-in-waiting" as consisting of Parliamentary Faction 
Leader Tibor Navracsics as Cabinet Minister "no matter who 
the Prime Minister is," MP Laszlo Kover as Director of the 
Intelligence Services, former FM Janos Martonyi and 
Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth as 
"in charge of foreign policy," and MP Miklos Matolcsi as 
Minister of Economy.  He also welcomed Zsigmond Jarai's 
departure from the National Bank, commenting that he will now 
be able to help FIDESZ restore its ties to the U.S. (septel). 
 Orban expressed concern, however, that any formal 
declaration of a shadow cabinet - unprecedented in modern 
Hungarian history - would focus "too much attention on our 
programs rather than the government's." 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment: Orban is clearly thriving on the activity 
surrounding the referendum.  From his opening remark in the 
Ambassador's office (pointing out the Soviet War Memorial 
visible from the window and suggesting that "we call in some 
Estonian know-how") to his parting comment (spreading his 
arms at the door to the embassy's secure area and noting "no 
cell phone, no boss: I'm a free man"), he was both engaged in 
the details and aware of the big picture.  Although he put 
the best possible face on divergences of opinion within the 
party, he has allowed other voices to emerge over the course 
of the past year.  He is aware of the need for FIDESZ to 
become less of a resistance movement and more of a modern, 
western party organized along more corporate lines.  He is 
also conscious of the need to repair his relationship with 
the U.S.  Though it may be a twelve-step program, he has at 
least taken the first step by recognizing the problem.  End 
Comment. 
 
FOLEY