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O 210936Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4994
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR 
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC AU CN
SUBJECT:  AFRICAN UNION CHALLENGES BACAR IN THE COMOROS 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 608 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  An African Union (AU) ultimatum and ministerial 
delegation to the Union of the Comoros is applying pressure on 
renegade Anjouan island "President" Mohamed Bacar.  All three 
islands of the Union are calm, awaiting Bacar's response to the AU. 
Rumors abound from Anjouan that Bacar and loyalists may be preparing 
to flee.  Union election officials indicate no election can be held 
on Anjouan June 24, but once the island is pacified, a fair election 
would be organized as soon as possible.  The run-off elections on 
the islands of Grande Comore and Moheli will be held June 24 as 
scheduled.  END SUMMARY. 
 
AU ISSUES FINAL ULTIMATUM 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Post received a copy of the statement out of the June 19 
African Union Cape Town meeting from the AU's headquarters in 
Brussels via email (full text in paragraph six) threatening deposed 
Anjouan island president Mohamed Bacar with the use of force if he 
does not comply with international demands and accept Union 
authority.  In particular, the June 10 Anjouan election is deemed 
void and a fair election for June 24 demanded.  Over 200 AU security 
forces remain on the island of Grande Comore awaiting orders to 
deploy to Anjouan. 
 
BACAR PREPARING TO FLEE? 
------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The AU reportedly communicated its demands to Bacar via 
fax to Anjouan on June 20 and is still awaiting his reply.  AU Envoy 
Madeira is reportedly returning to the Comoros June 21 but the 
precise mandate of his mission is unknown.  In the meantime, rumors 
from contacts in Anjouan suggest Bacar loyalists are gathering 
valuable possessions and preparing to flee.  Few officials are 
accepting offers in island "cabinet" positions, perhaps sensing the 
end is near.  One story circulating suggests Bacar is making ready 
to flee to Mayotte, and perhaps onward to France to join his French 
citizen wife.  While he has persistently ignored international 
demands so far, Bacar is perhaps beginning to recognize the African 
Union and broader international community may not turn away until 
the Comoran crisis is resolved. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) An Independent National Electoral Commission official told 
us whatever the imminent outcome, island elections will not be held 
on Anjouan June 24, as time will be needed to deploy and prepare 
once (if) Bacar steps aside. 
 
CALM IN THE OTHER TWO ISLANDS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) In Grande Comore and Moheli, the other two islands in the 
Union of the Comoros, preparations remain underway for the run-off 
stage of elections for the island presidents.  Conditions are 
reportedly calm, although a few voices have questioned the 
credibility of these elections in light of the Union crisis.  The 
Embassy has one officer and two local staff in Grande Comore as 
observers of the run-off. 
 
¶6.  (U) BEGIN TEXT OF AU STATEMENT 
 
MEETING OF THE MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE OF THE COUNTRIES 
OF THE REGION ON THE COMOROS, 
19 JUNE 2007, CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA 
 
COMMUNIQUE 
 
1)  The Ministerial Committee of the countries of the region on the 
Comoros met today, 19 June 2007, in Cape Town, South Africa, to 
discuss the situation in the archipelago.  The meeting was chaired 
by the Foreign Minister of the Republic of South Africa, in her 
capacity as the representative of the country coordinating the 
regional efforts on the Comoros, and attended by Ministers and other 
heads of delegation from Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique, Seychelles, 
Mauritius and Madagascar. 
 
2)  The meeting was briefed on the latest developments of the 
situation in the Comoros by the AU Commissioner for Peace and 
 
ANTANANARI 00000615  002 OF 003 
 
 
Security and the Special Envoy of the Chairperson of the AU 
Commission for the Comoros.  The meeting was also briefed by a 
Comorian delegation led by the Vice-President of the Union of the 
Comoros, which requested the AU to provide urgent assistance to the 
Comorian Government, to enable it overcome the current crisis in the 
archipelago, and to enhance the long-term capacity of the 
institutions of the Union. 
 
3)  The meeting expressed its deep concern at the prevailing 
situation in Anjouan, which has the potential of seriously 
undermining the significant progress achieved so far in the 
reconciliation process in the Comoros.  The meeting strongly 
condemned the decision of the Anjouanese authorities to organize the 
1st round of the election of the President of the Island on 10 June 
2007, in spite of the decree of the President of the Union 
postponing the election, as the conditions on the ground were not 
conducive to the holding of free, fair and transparent elections, 
and the decision adopted by the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) 
on 9 June 2007. 
 
4)  The meeting reiterated the position of the PSC rejecting the 
outcome of the "election" in Anjouan and called on the international 
community to do the same. The meeting also took note of the ruling 
of the Constitutional Court of 18 June 2007 declaring that the 
electoral activities for the presidential election in the Autonomous 
Island of Anjouan are a non event and instructing the relevant 
authorities to invite the voters to participate in the election of 
the President of the autonomous Island of Anjouan.  Consequently, 
the meeting considered that the purported installation of Colonel 
Mohamed Bacar as "President" of Anjouan and all subsequent acts by 
the Anjouanese authorities are null and void. 
 
5)  In view of the above, and based on the ruling of the 
Constitutional Court, the meeting agreed that effective measures 
should be taken to bring the crisis in the Comoros to a definite 
end, in line with the arrangements agreed upon by the Comorian 
parties, as stipulated in the Fomboni Framework Agreement of 
February 2001 and the Beit Salam Agreement on the Transitional 
Arrangements in the Comoros of December 2003, as well as the 
Constitution of the Union. 
 
6)  The meeting demanded that the Anjouanese authorities take, 
immediately and unconditionally, the following measures: 
 
(i)  to comply with the ruling of the Constitutional Court and to 
unambiguously acknowledge that the "election" organized in Anjouan 
on 10 June 2007 is null and void; 
 
(ii)  to facilitate the organization, in Anjouan, of the first round 
of the election of the President of the Island at a date to be 
agreed upon by all stakeholders, in accordance with the Constitution 
and relevant electoral legislation, and to create conditions for the 
holding of free, fair and transparent elections; 
 
(iii)  to allow the African Union Electoral and Security Assistance 
Mission to the Comoros (MAES) to deploy in Anjouan, to provide 
security for the holding of free, fair and transparent elections in 
Anjouan. The Anjouanese gendarmerie will be cantoned and will, 
therefore, not be involved in the monitoring of the electoral 
process; 
 
(iv)  to extend the necessary cooperation to MAES to enable it 
prepare plans for the disarmament of the Anjouanese gendarmerie and 
integration of its elements into the Comorian army, as well as 
assist in the establishment of an internal security force in 
conformity with the Constitution of the Union and under the 
supervision of the AU; and 
 
(v)  to commit themselves to, and create the necessary conditions 
for, the restoration of the authority of the Union in Anjouan. 
 
7)  The meeting agreed that, in the event the above demands are not 
met by the Anjouanese authorities, the PSC should meet to take all 
necessary measures, including revising the mandate of MAES and 
increasing its strength, to achieve the above objectives and to 
ensure the full implementation of the institutional framework 
provided for by the Constitution of the Union of the Comoros.  In 
this respect, the meeting recalled that, in its communique of 9 June 
 
ANTANANARI 00000615  003 OF 003 
 
 
2007, the PSC reiterated its determination to take all necessary 
steps to assist in the effective establishment of the new 
institutional framework of the Comoros, including the restoration of 
the authority of the Government of the Union in Anjouan. 
 
8)  The meeting stressed that issues of governance, including the 
inadequacies of the current constitutional arrangements, and 
capacity building are among the most serious challenges facing the 
Comoros and that there is need to address them effectively. 
 
9)  The meeting reiterated the commitment of the countries of the 
region to support the people of the Comoros in their endeavor to 
promote reconciliation and work towards sustainable development. 
 
10)  The meeting decided to dispatch a ministerial delegation to the 
Comoros to engage the Comorian authorities on all the issues 
referred to above. 
 
11)  The meeting commended South Africa for its efforts and 
tremendous contribution to the search for a lasting solution to the 
crisis in the Comoros, as well as to the other countries of the 
region for their commitment.  It also expressed appreciation to all 
the countries that contributed police and military personnel to 
MAES, including South Africa, Tanzania, Sudan and Senegal, as well 
as to Mauritius and Seychelles for their contribution within the 
framework of the Indian Ocean Commission. The meeting commended MAES 
for its work and contribution to the smooth conduct of the 1st round 
of the elections. 
 
12)  The meeting called on all AU partners, including the League of 
Arab States, the European Union, the United Nations and the 
bilateral partners, to fully support the AU efforts and the outcome 
of the present meeting. 
 
END TEXT OF AU STATEMENT 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Bacar has been wily and persistent so far and may 
still have a few rabbits up his sleeve.  That said, if Bacar and his 
cronies flee, Post expects any militia remaining behind to give up 
without a fight.  It will be necessary for Union military commanders 
to quickly establish control of Anjouan and disarm soldiers and/or 
reintegrate them into the Union National Army of Development (AND). 
President Sambi will quickly seek to assert Union authority over 
Anjouan, while simultaneously establishing a legitimate island 
government via elections.  Following a brief stabilization period, 
President Sambi must have immediate financial assistance from the 
donor community to establish inter-island governance structures and 
to deliver results on basic development needs like health, 
education, and jobs.  Sambi has less than four years remaining in 
the only term he is allowed under the Constitution.  END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY