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O 131335Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4961
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE 
NSC FOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CN
SUBJECT:  COMORAN PRESIDENT SEEKS U.S. MILITARY ASSISTANCE 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 583 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  In a letter to President Bush (full translation 
in Paragraph Two), Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, President of the Union of 
the Comoros, seeks U.S. support for a military effort to restore 
democracy to the island of Anjouan.  Sambi describes the repeated 
efforts - by his government as well as by the African Union and the 
Arab League - to get renegade island warlord Mohamed Bacar to submit 
his candidacy to the test of a free election.  With Bacar 
stonewalling these efforts at a peaceful resolution, Sambi 
regretfully concludes that only a military intervention can restore 
the Union of the Comoros.  He seeks U.S. support in carrying out 
this operation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) (Begin Text) 
 
Moroni, June 13, 2007. 
 
The President, 
 
No. 07-253/PR 
 
Excellency and Dear Brother, 
 
Please allow me to apply to you once again, to inform you of how the 
situation in the Comoros has developed lately.  As you know, after a 
wide consultation with national institutions such as the 
Constitutional Court, the National Assembly, the Independent 
National Electoral Commission and the candidates, I have decided to 
postpone the first round of the presidential elections in Anjouan 
from June 10 to June 17, 2007, seeing that the conditions for free 
and transparent elections are still missing on this island.  The 
International Community has acknowledged the legitimacy of this 
decision, namely the African Union by the Communique of the 78th 
session of the Peace and Security Council on June 9, 2007. 
 
Despite the warnings of the entire Comorian nation and that of the 
International Community regarding the unacceptable nature of any 
election that might be held on June 10, 2007 by the authorities in 
Anjouan, these latter went on regardless.  On June 10, these same 
authorities have held the pretence of an election, without any 
electoral materials or the participation of voters who remained home 
and without any domestic or international supervision.  As early as 
Monday morning, Colonel Mohamed Bacar has already declared himself 
winner and plans to inaugurate himself as President of the Island of 
Anjouan. 
 
Following this masquerade, solely aimed at challenging the authority 
of the State and that of the International Community, a delegation 
-- the Special Envoy, the Head of the Liaison Office of the African 
Union, the representatives of the League of Arab States present in 
Moroni, and the South African Ambassador -- went to Anjouan to meet 
with local authorities and try to bring them back to reason. 
 
The delegation met with local authorities and explained that the 
International Community, namely the African Union and the Arab 
League, do not acknowledge this pseudo-election and that the 
so-called results are illegal.  The delegation also warned them of 
the serious consequences of obstinacy in this matter that might lead 
to military intervention. 
 
Despite all that, the delegation has informed us of the firm 
position expressed by local authorities in Anjouan, who stand by the 
results of their June 10 elections and who oppose the organization 
of the June 17 vote in Anjouan. 
 
It seems that local authorities in Anjouan are convinced that 
neither the Union nor the International Community would take any 
measures and that, in any case, they are ready to face any measure 
taken against them.  This attitude shows, once again, how lightly 
the local authorities in Anjouan take the statements made by the 
International Community and the Union of the Comoros. 
 
Excellency, the rebellious attitude of local authorities in Anjouan 
has exhausted all means of dialogue, and might spread to the other 
islands and jeopardize the unity and the integrity of the Comoros. 
This attitude of defiance could definitely damage the credibility of 
the International Community and that of the Union of the Comoros 
 
ANTANANARI 00000585  002 OF 002 
 
 
unless rapid and vigorous measures are taken.  Excellency, the 
population in Anjouan is held hostage by a handful of men and 
constantly cries out for help. 
 
I am convinced that the military capacities of the Anjouan 
Gendarmerie Forces will not be able to resist any clear display of 
resolved action by the International Community. 
 
Personally, after having long avoided any military option, I have no 
choice today but to endorse such an option, which seems the only 
alternative left, following the failure of the negotiations carried 
out within the last forty-eight hours, by the African Union and the 
Arab League. 
 
Therefore, I would like to ask you to please, once again, provide us 
with your assistance in carrying out a rapid and effective operation 
so as to avoid useless suffering for the population. 
 
I rely on your usual understanding and your unfailing solidarity, 
and I assure you, Excellency and Brother, of my fraternal 
sentiments, 
 
//signature// 
AHMED ABDALLAH MOHAMED SAMBI 
 
(End Text) 
 
COMMENT:  The Power But Not The Means 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In Post's assessment, Sambi probably has the forces 
necessary to dislodge Bacar from his ill-gotten power.  What he 
lacks is the means to deliver them to Anjouan.  With control of the 
airport and the seaports, Bacar has so far shown the will and the 
ability to hold off the Union forces.  Sambi is probably calculating 
that he has three options:  to accept de facto secession of the 
Island of Anjouan, to fight a grim and bloody battle to overcome 
Bacar with the forces that he has, or to get outside assistance from 
a force so powerful as to inhibit any resistance from the Anjouan 
militia.  Clearly he is hoping the third option may be viable.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY