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FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001515 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017 
TAGS: PREL EU TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY-EU TROIKA MEETINGS: TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION 
PROCESS SPUTTERS ONWARD 
 
REF: ANKARA 1454 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and 
 (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Turkey-EU Troika consultations held June 4 in 
Ankara were constructive and served to underscore the 
continued mutual commitment to pursuing eventual Turkish EU 
membership, according to GOT and EU officials.  Turkey's 
membership aspirations continue, and the technical process, 
though slowed by the EU's December freezing of negotiations 
on eight chapters as a result of Turkey's refusal to open its 
ports to Cypriot vessels, is moving ahead as well.  The 
question of how many additional chapters will be opened for 
formal negotiation later this month remains.  However, the 
negotiation process continues, notwithstanding French 
President Sarkozy's apparent determination to end it as well 
as faltering public support in Turkey. END SUMMARY 
 
CONSULTATIONS SHORT BUT SUBSTANTIVE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Turkey-EU Troika consultations held June 4 in Ankara 
were short but substantive, focusing not only on Turkey's 
membership aspirations, but on broader international topics. 
According to various EU member state embassy officials here, 
the meetings lasted only three and a half hours due to German 
FM Steinmeier's commitments later in the day in Berlin for 
Germany-Canada consultations.  In addition to Steinmeier, the 
EU delegation was led by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli 
Rehn and Portuguese State Minister Joao Cravinhoas.  Turkey's 
key representatives included FM Abdullah Gul, State Minister 
and Chief Negotiator on EU Accession Ali Babacan, Foreign 
Policy Advisor to the PM and FM Ahmet Davutoglu, and MFA 
Under Secretary Ertugrul Apakan, among others. 
 
TURKEY'S EU ASPIRATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Ahmet Dogan of Turkey's Secretariat General for EU 
Affairs said the EU delegation underscored the Union's 
continued commitment to the negotiations and reiterated the 
hope that formal talks on an additional three chapters could 
be initiated before the end of June.  Dogan said the three 
chapters under consideration, on Economic and Monetary 
Policy, Financial Controls, and Statistics, have no opening 
benchmarks which Turkey needs to clear prior to the opening 
of negotiations.  Should the EU decide to move forward as 
planned in these three areas, Turkey would be asked to submit 
an opening position paper for each chapter; GOT bureaucrats 
are busy preparing those. 
 
¶4. (C) In contrast to Dogan's optimism about moving ahead 
with all three chapters, German Embassy officials here said 
that Steinmeier offered no such assurances.  The German 
presidency objective is to proceed if possible.  They see the 
process as open, and open-ended; whether or not member states 
object to opening all three chapters at the moment, the 
process itself will continue.  Steinmeier noted that a large 
majority of EU countries favor Turkey's candidacy, but it is 
no secret that some - and at least two in particular (Cyprus, 
France) - are critical.  Steinmeier indicated to his Turkish 
hosts that Turkey must help turn them around. 
 
Sarkozy and Turkey's EU Accession 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Reports of French President Sarkozy's determination to 
offer Turkey status short of full membership, perhaps as 
early as this December, have received considerable media 
attention here and contributed to a backlash among the 
Turkish public against EU membership talks.  French embassy 
officials confirmed press reports that Sarkozy's government 
intends to try to block opening of negotiations on the 
Economic and Monetary Policy (EMU) chapter.  They pointed 
out, however, that it may be too late.  Dogan noted France 
and Cyprus view opening negotiations on three new chapters as 
rewarding continued Turkish intransigence on opening its 
ports to Cypriot vessels; they are pressing to open just one 
new chapter.  He said the GOT will be disappointed, but not 
surprised, if in the end the EU offers to open two new 
chapters.  Ironically, Turkey has a good story to tell on the 
EMU, as it is already in compliance with two of the 
Maastricht criteria only six years after its financial 
crisis.  Moreover, a Turkish EU Secretariat official pointed 
out to us that opening the EMU chapter is purely symbolic in 
any case, because nothing really happens on this chapter 
until the Eurozone is ready to admit the accession country, 
 
ANKARA 00001515  002 OF 003 
 
 
after the country gains EU membership.  The French officials 
lamented that French efforts will only worsen soured 
bilateral relations over the French parliament's passage of 
an Armenian genocide resolution last Fall. 
 
EU Keeping An Eye on Turkey 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Turning to domestic politics, FM Gul told the EU 
delegation that Turkey-EU relations would play a role in the 
July 22 general elections.  Gul expressed hope that the 
Turkish electorate would decide to re-elect a party committed 
to continuing the EU negotiation process.  Commissioner Rehn 
underscored the EU's hope that Turkey's election would be in 
accordance with democratic principles and Turkey's 
constitution.  Gul reiterated the Justice and Development 
Party (AKP)-led government's commitment to pursuing the 
reform agenda established earlier in the year in its EU 
roadmap.  He also indicated the next government, presuming 
AKP is again in power, would take up the process of passing a 
new Foundations Law and reform of penal code article 301, 
both of which have been high priorities for the EU. 
According to Dogan, the EU delegation emphasized the 
importance the EU gives to Turkey's continued work in 
enhancing freedom of expression and freedom of religion, as 
well as trade union rights.  The Troika also criticized the 
military's role in Turkey, pointing to the April 27 "coup-by 
memorandum" that many believe influenced the constitutional 
court's decision to negate the presidential election process. 
 At the same time, Dogan said the EU delegation emphasized 
its support for Turkey's secular democracy, which many Turks 
would read to mean support for AKP's more secular opposition. 
 
¶7. (C) Steinmeier pointed to the April 18 murders of three 
Christians in Malatya as a big concern for the EU, which also 
reflected very negatively for Turkey in the European press. 
He stressed the need for a change in mentality among Turks 
toward religious minorities and recommended that GOT 
ministers meet with leaders of these communities.  Steinmeier 
expressed the EU's continued commitment to Turkey in its 
fight against PKK terrorism but appealed for GOT restraint 
and no precipitous action in connection with its struggle 
against the PKK in northern Iraq.  Gul responded that Turkey 
has no hidden agenda regarding Iraq; it wants a unified Iraq 
that is friendly, democratic, and stable.  However, a lack of 
sovereignty causes chaos, which breeds terrorism.  Gul said 
the PKK has gained access to weapons and explosives and the 
ability to freely train its cadres in northern Iraq.  Turkey 
is expecting more urban bombings and the GOT is concerned 
about how the Turkish public and media will react in the 
current politically-charged environment. 
 
Searching For a Way Forward on Cyprus 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) On Cyprus, Steinmeier said the German presidency would 
continue to put forth its best effort on a new trade 
regulation for direct trade with northern Cyprus and opening 
ports/airports.  State Minister Cravinhoas pledged similar 
effort on the part of the Portuguese.  However, Steinmeier 
said that even if no progress is made on direct trade, Turkey 
remains obligated in the EU's eyes to open its ports and 
airports to ROC trade.  The Turks predictably countered with 
the need to end the isolation of Turkish Cypriots and to find 
a solution under UN aegis to the continued division of the 
island.  Gul blamed the Cypriot government for obstructionism. 
 
Cooperation on Central Asia 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) The Troika and Turkish delegations also discussed 
Iran's nuclear ambitions, the Middle East Peace Process and 
intra-Palestinian factional fighting, ongoing fighting in 
Lebanon, prospects for Turkish-EU cooperation in Central 
Asia, and efforts to improve ties between Turkey and Armenia. 
 On Central Asia, Steinmeier described a change in EU 
strategy, now focused not only on energy but in helping push 
for positive change in the entire region.  The EU wants to 
enhance EU-Central Asia cooperation on transport routes and 
civil society dialogue, as well as energy projects like 
Nabucco.  The GOT delegation spoke of the great potential for 
Turkish-EU cooperation in this region, especially in energy. 
MFA Deputy U/S Cevikoz described the four "D's" of the 
Turkish approach: democracy, dialogue, development, and 
diversification.  The Turks recognized that the Central Asian 
states had for too long been under the thumb of big brother; 
they were being careful not to appear to be a newer, more 
modern version of the same.  The Portuguese added that 
 
ANKARA 00001515  003 OF 003 
 
 
EU-Central Asia consultations would take place on the margins 
of UNGA later this year.  Cravinhoas also appealed for 
Turkish pragmatism in its dealings with Armenia, viewing the 
lack of bilateral ties as an obstacle to greater regional 
cooperation. 
 
¶10. (C) COMMENT: Despite political forces determined to drive 
Turkey and the EU apart, the process continues to sputter 
forward.  With the AKP government having made EU accession a 
centerpiece of its program, it is struggling to resist rising 
anti-EU sentiment in Turkey and a more openly hostile 
Euroscepticism from the military.  Technocrats working 
outside the glare of the media spotlight remain fully 
committed to ensuring the process lives on.  High profile 
officials like Olli Rehn continue to warn of the dire 
consequences for relations between the West and Islam should 
Turkey's aspirations be extinguished.  On the Turkish side, 
Minister Babacan said the alternative to Turkey's EU 
avocation is to be a third world country.  The July 22 
elections will help clarify whether the Turkish public - now 
slightly favoring membership - sees the EU accession process 
as an unacceptable national humiliation or a worthwhile 
effort.  In the meantime, planning for future Turkey-EU 
cooperation will continue. 
 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON