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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 RUSSELS 001548 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZK
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES CENTRAL ASIA WITH EU 
 
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BRUSSELS 05101548  003 OF 004 
 
 
would require careful political management.  Interlocutors 
also told Boucher that while Kazakhstan welcomes Chinese 
investment, it is wary of Chinese immigration as a result. 
 
Kyrgyz Republic:  Deteriorating political situation and 
creeping "Islamization" worry EU 
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¶13.  (C)  Lucas and Morel expressed concern that if the 
political situation continues to deteriorate in Kyrgyzstan, 
others in the region may draw the conclusion that the closer 
a country moves toward democracy, the more unstable it 
becomes.  Morel told Boucher he met with President Kurmanbek 
Bakiyev in mid-March, and that Bakiyev seemed fairly pleased 
with himself for having outplayed the opposition.  Morel 
sensed that there was a credible growing opposition movement 
led by former Prime Minister Kulov, but that Kulov was more 
interested in overruling Bakiyev than he was in leading the 
charge for constitutional change.  Pushing Kulov forward, 
Morel said, is former Interior Minister Omurbek Suvanaliyev. 
According to Morel, Suvanaliyev recently claimed he could 
influence 40 percent of the country's secret police forces. 
Morel expressed concern that Suvanaliyev and Kulov have 
strong ties to Moscow and had made several secret trips. 
Morel said the opposition was dismissing Bakiyev's 
appointment of opposition leader Almaz Atambayev to the role 
of Prime Minister as a "pawn."  Boucher stressed the need for 
a coordinated message pressing Kyrgyzstan to settle down (not 
exploiting the current uncertainty for short term gain), to 
revise the constitution, and to move on. 
 
¶14.  (C)  Although the Parliament is largely outdated, Morel 
conceded that at least there is one in place.  Morel 
expressed deep concern over the "creeping Islamization 
through social pressure," noting that women were being paid 
to wear the hijab and citing the recently proposed 
legislation legalizing polygamy.  Bakiyev joked about the 
proposed legislation, but did nothing to block it.  The 
legislation was later blocked by the Parliament. 
 
¶15.  (C)  On assistance, Maldonado told Boucher there would 
be an 80 percent increase in assistance, totaling 40 million 
euros a year.  Commission assistance will focus on rural 
development, the social sector, energy, and political 
infrastructure and transparency.  Boucher briefed EU 
interlocutors on our progress preparing a Millennium 
Challenge Account threshold program for the country. 
 
¶16.  (C)  On hydro power, EU interlocutors shared Boucher's 
assessment that the Kyrgyz do not have a plan and expressed 
doubt that the project might become a "white elephant." 
Boucher stressed the need for the Kyrgyz to reform the energy 
sector first. 
 
Tajikistan:  Cautiously optimistic 
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¶17.  (C)  EU interlocutors generally shared Boucher's 
assessment and were cautiously optimistic about Tajikistan, 
but agreed that issues of democratic reform and corruption 
continue to plague the country.  Lucas relayed that the 
Tajiks are nervous about political idealization from 
Afghanistan.  Lucas also expressed concern over drug 
trafficking.  Lucas said that border control and drug 
trafficking would be "stepped up" in the new EU strategic 
framework, with an emphasis on better coordination with all 
regional players, including Russia.  Maldonado told Boucher 
there would be a $14-15 million euro increase in the regional 
border management program. 
 
¶18.  (C)  The Commission told Boucher it would spend 17 
million euros per year on rural development, agriculture, 
land reform, and public finance management (linked with an 
anti-corruption campaign) during the next programming period. 
 Two Commission programs were closed, however, due to 
corruption. 
 
¶19.  (C)  Lucas agreed with Boucher that the lack of 
democratic reform continues to be a problem.  EU 
interlocutors stressed the need to make clear to the Tajiks 
that the OSCE must be allowed to do its job, and said the 
litmus test for democratic reform would be the state of 
non-governmental organizations.  Nonetheless, Lucas said that 
Tajikistan seems to be moving in the right direction and 
appears to maintain a lively civil society. 
 
 
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