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Viewing cable 07PODGORICA159, SCENESETTER FOR ADM ULRICH VISIT TO MONTENEGRO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PODGORICA159 2007-05-14 12:52 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Podgorica
VZCZCXRO4272
PP RUEHPOD
DE RUEHPOD #0159/01 1341252
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 141252Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0088
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0045
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0218
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0229
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000159 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR MW
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ADM ULRICH VISIT TO MONTENEGRO 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Welcome back to Montenegro. Your visit comes as the 
Montenegrins debate their new draft constitution, and as the 
opposition continues its misinformed attacks on the GoM-USG 
SOFA, and our Article 98 agreement. The Montenegrin leadership 
continues its pro-West, pro-American stance, while looking to 
maintain good relations with Moscow. The GoM remains a receptive 
interlocutor, eager to develop strong ties with Washington and 
to prove itself a reliable partner.  GoM membership in 
Partnership for Peace drew limited criticism, and there has been 
much publicity but little notice given to Montenegro's 
involvement in the State Partnership Program (linked to Maine). 
A DAO was established in late 2006, and the first resident DATT 
will arrive in July 2007. End Summary. 
 
 
 
Strategic Situation: SOFA and Article 98 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
2. (SBU) The Montenegrin leadership strongly believes their 
country's future lies within PfP, and eventually NATO and the 
EU.  Unfortunately, the opposition (even those supportive of a 
good relationship with the U.S.) have seen the May 1 SOFA and 
April 19 Article agreements as fulcrums upon which to lever 
attacks on the GoM. A persistent pattern of attacks on both 
agreements, fed by misinformation, has arisen.  While the 
opposition leadership has accurate information --post verified 
this point -- they have told the embassy that they are looking 
for hooks upon which to hang attacks on the GoM.  They have 
played up sharply the EU dislike of Article 98 agreements, and 
have painted a false scenario whereby Montenegro would have to 
choose between NATO and EU memberships. The GoM is aware of the 
actual situation, but the message has gotten lost in the noise. 
It is not clear what the public thinks about the controversy; it 
is likely they view the attacks as the latest "scandal" to be 
used by the opposition to beat up on the GoM. 
 
 
 
3. (SBU) President Vujanovic appears ready to provide the 
necessary leadership to energize his nation and military for 
eventual participation in GWOT. In Washington in early May, he 
told Secretary Gates that Montenegro wants to send a small 
number of officers to GWOT (probably Afghanistan) in 2008. 
Vujanovic signed the SOFA with Secretary Rice on May 1, and has 
defended the GoM's conclusion of the Article 98 agreement on 
April 19 through an exchange of diplomatic notes.  The GoM has 
established, and is rapidly expanding it Defense Ministry, and 
the 2007 defense budget is 2.04% of GDP. The GoM delivered its 
Presentation Document to NATO in early May, after joining the 
Partnership for Peace on December 14. 
 
 
 
4. (U) Montenegro's Presentation Document states it seeks to 
become a member of NATO. It will conduct the Planning and Review 
Process (PARP), and develop an Individual Partnership Program. 
It seeks consultations on its Individual Partnership Action Plan 
(IPAP) and Membership Action Plan (MAP). It has established both 
a Mission to NATO, and a Partnership for Peace Council, chaired 
by the PM. 
 
 
 
Defense and Security 
 
-------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The Montenegrin Armed Forces (MAF) are led by 
Lieutenant Colonel General Jovan Lakcevic.  The Chief of Defense 
(CHOD) is committed to transitioning the MAF into a deployable 
light-infantry force numbering approximately 2400 officers and 
men with air and naval support bases. The Navy is leaving Kotor 
Bay for Bar later this year. The MAF's main missions would be 
national defense, participation in peacekeeping, as well as 
disaster relief.  General Lakcevic envisions a potential MAF 
 
PODGORICA 00000159  002 OF 003 
 
 
security contribution of four platoons each having niche 
capabilities such as special operations/counter-terrorism, 
military police, combat engineers, and mountain infantry. The 
CHOD views participation in U.S.-led operations as the best 
means to form the nucleus of a professional, interoperable MAF 
trained to NATO standards. 
 
 
 
 
 
Political Situation 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
6.  (U) The independence referendum held in Montenegro on May 
21, 2006 was widely considered free, fair, and transparent by 
international observers.  The Republic Referendum Commission 
confirmed the referendum's success on May 31.  Turnout was 86.5 
percent, with 230,661 voters (55.5 percent) supporting 
independence and 185,002 voters (44.5 percent) against. 
 
 
 
7.  (U) On June 3, parliament officially accepted the referendum 
results and declared Montenegro independent, restoring 
sovereignty after 87 years. 
 
 
 
8.  (U) Montenegro joined the OSCE on June 22, 2006, the UN on 
June 28, 2006, and the Council of Europe on May 11, 2007.  The 
U.S. recognized Montenegro on June 12, 2006, and announced the 
establishment of diplomatic relations on August 15, 2006.  The 
U.S. Consulate officially became an Embassy on October 5, 2006; 
nine other NATO countries have resident embassies in Montenegro. 
Russia and China also have embassies in Montenegro. 
 
 
 
9. (SBU) On September 10, 2006 Montenegro had its first 
Republic-wide parliamentary elections, with the ruling DPS/SDP 
coalition winning an absolute majority in parliament, with 41 of 
81 seats. OSCE considered the voting "generally in line" with 
international standards.  The opposition is fractured into three 
blocs, with the formal Leader of the Opposition being Andrija 
Mandic, head of the nationalist Serbian People's Party (SNS). 
Mandic, while personally disposed to pursue good relations with 
the U.S., is not above creating controversy over agreements with 
the U.S. in order to play to his nationalist voter base by 
attacking the GoM.  Mandic recently told post that he was going 
to make transparency of the SOFA an issue, but he jovially 
admitted that the GoM thwarted that tack by posting the 
agreements on the GoM website 
 
-- so he shifted to the process by which the GoM had concluded 
the agreements, as well as to willful distortions of the 
substance. SNS is in coalition with the Serbian Radical Party, 
with the Radicals gaining one seat in the Montenegrin 
Parliament. Unlike the other opposition groupings, a slim 
majority of the "Serbian List" opposes NATO (but not EU) 
membership for Montenegro. 
 
 
 
Happy First Birthday 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
10.  (SBU) Your visit comes as Montenegro marks the first 
anniversary of the referendum vote.  A year on, no major 
political figure raises objections to Montenegro's renewed 
independence. Serbian nationalist opposition parties, such as 
SNS, and centrist parties like the Socialist People's Party 
(SNP) have yet to embrace the literal symbols of independence 
(flag, anthem, etc.), even while they fully engage in the 
political life of independent Montenegro. 
 
 
 
11. (U) Prime Minister Zeljko Sturanovic took over from 
long-time PM Djukanovic last fall as the head of a stable, 
pro-Western coalition government. Like Djukanovic, Sturanovic's 
primary foreign policy goals are EU and NATO membership and he 
would like to ally Montenegro closely with the United States. 
 
PODGORICA 00000159  003 OF 003 
 
 
Domestically, the government's track record on fully 
implementing needed democratic and economic reforms is generally 
positive, but with some room for improvement, particularly on 
implementation . 
 
 
 
Fighting Corruption 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
12. (U) Sturanovic has created a broad-based task force to 
tackle corruption and increase public confidence in state 
institutions.  He named his highly-capable Deputy Prime Minister 
Gordana Djurovic to head the team, with day-to-day tasks 
directed by Vesna Ratkovic, formerly a a deputy minister of 
Justice and most recently in charge of USAID's Rule of Law 
program.  He also named opposition MP's and watchdog NGO members 
to the force.  Corruption is seen as existing at all levels, and 
many many Montenegrins list corruption as the country's biggest 
problem (along with low living standards).  In this process, 
implementation of existing legislation will be key. 
 
 
 
Attracting Investment 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
13. (U) Montenegro has been successful in attracting foreign 
direct investment (FDI), but so far very little of that has been 
American. In 2006, FDI amounted to over Euros 505 million (USD 
650 million) - 28 percent of GDP - the highest in the region. 
Most that was greenfield investments, as Montenegro nears 
complete divestment of state-owned assets. The GoM plans that 
over the next four years, foreigners will make over a billion 
euros of direct foreign investments into Montenegro. Thanks to a 
receptive attitude toward USAID funded macro-economic reform 
initiatives, the Government has adopted a business-friendly 
investment climate (e.g., 9 percent corporate tax rate, full 
repatriability of profits).  Much of the FDI in 2006 was 
purchase of real property, with Russians, British and Irish 
leading the way.  In April 2007, a U.S.-based firm landed the 
Euros 8 million (US$ 10 million) contract to produce independent 
Montenegro's first passports. 
BARNES