VZCZCXRO0156
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0625/01 1231206
ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZDK CCP
P 031206Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3438
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0165
RUESKT/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0553
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0522
RUFGCIN/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000625 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - SIPDIS CAPTION ADDED 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017 
TAGS: MOPS PGOV PREL CASC EMIN NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: A PESSIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GON-TUAREG 
RELATIONS, FROM THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE 
 
REF: (A) NIAMEY 616 (B) NIAMEY 607 
 
NIAMEY 00000625  001.6 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Mohamed Anacko, the man responsible for 
implementing the 1995 agreement ending the Tuareg rebellion, 
fears that President Tandja's desire for a military solution 
to the recent Tuareg uprising risks turning it into a full 
fledged rebellion that could affect the entire region.  He 
condemned recent Tuareg attacks in northern Niger, but said 
the Tuaregs have valid grievance and the GON should negotiate 
with them rather than dismiss them as bandits and drug 
traffickers.  He placed little faith in Khaddafi's mediation 
efforts, and thought the Algerians could do better.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) High Commissioner for Peace Restoration Mohamed Anacko 
was the leader of one of the Tuareg rebel groups that 
eventually reached a peace agreement with the GON in 1995. 
His current job consists of trying to ensure that the peace 
agreement holds.  With the recent attacks on GON security 
forces by Tuareg dissidents, he is caught between a 
government that wants to brand the dissidents as bandits and 
drug traffickers, and his former colleagues who demand 
political, economic, security and social concessions from 
Niamey.  He offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation 
in a May 2 meeting with the Ambassador and DCM. 
 
¶3. (C) Ambassador Allen began the meeting by expressing her 
concern about recent security events, which she said had 
prompted the Embassy to warn American citizens against 
traveling north of Agadez.  She asked if the government was 
negotiating with the Tuareg dissidents to try to resolve the 
situation. 
 
¶4. (C) Anacko condemned the dissident Tuareg group's attacks, 
but rejected labeling the group as bandits.  He dismissed 
Tandja's recent effort to paint the dissident group as drug 
smugglers (ref A) by saying that drug smugglers may have used 
the Tuaregs, but if the GON is serious about fighting drugs, 
it should go to the source. He said that he has urged 
President Tandja to negotiate with the dissident Tuaregs. 
 
¶5. (C) Anacko feared that Tandja seeks a military solution. 
The Nigerien military is weak now, but the government is 
negotiating with China for aircraft and arms.  Those could 
arrive as early as June, and might prompt the government to 
launch an offensive.  Any aerial bombing of Tuaregs would 
result in considerable civilian casualties, and possibly even 
a "genocide," according to Anacko. 
 
¶6. (C) Anacko said that he has talked to Tandja by phone, 
most recently on April 27, but the President has refused to 
meet with him in person.  Tandja asked Anacko to go to the 
north to resolve the issue, but Anacko said that was 
impossible because of the security situation.  Similarly, the 
dissidents would not feel safe traveling to Niamey or Agadez. 
 A group of the Tuareg dissidents recently met in Libya with 
Kahaddafi, who will soon send emissaries to Niamey to relay 
the Tuareg concerns.  Anacko had little faith in Khaddafi's 
mediation, however.  He said that Algeria would be better 
positioned to deal with the matter. It is run by a real 
government rather than one man, and is therefore better 
positioned to follow through on agreements. 
 
¶7. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about how the 
recent spike in uranium prices might contribute to the 
conflict, Anacko complained that fewer than 5 percent of the 
mining companies' Nigerien employees are Tuareg.  The mining 
companies even hire drivers from the south, and Chinese 
companies bring in Chinese laborers, whom Anacko believes are 
prisoners.  France is displeased with Niger because it 
previously had a monopoly on uranium and other mining, but 
French companies only won four of 19 new mining concessions. 
Canada and China won many of the new concessions. The new 
mining law provides that 15% of mineral revenues go to the 
communities where the mines are, but Anacko said that is not 
enough. 
 
¶8. (C) Anacko said he knows all the dissident leaders well, 
and talks to them every day.  The other ex-combatants with 
whom Anacko works in Niamey are becoming frustrated with the 
government's approach to the issue.  Anacko referred 
favorably to the recent agreement between Tuaregs and the 
Malian government that gave the Tuareg's responsibility for 
security in northern Mali. 
 
NIAMEY 00000625  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) Anacko warned that the dissidents are currently few in 
number, but if the GON doesn't address their grievances they 
could become a popular movement resulting in a full fledged 
rebellion which could spread beyond Niger.  Anacko said that 
ethnic Toubous in the east had supplied the land mines used 
by the Tuaregs in the north (ref b).  He noted a recent 
incident involving Mohamid Arabs in Diffa (southeastern 
Niger), and said they may join forces with the Tuaregs. 
They, in turn, are reportedly related to the Jinjaweed 
militia in Darfur.  Former supporters of President Barre are 
reportedly involved.  AQIM may be in touch with the Tuaregs. 
Anacko stressed that these groups do not have any common 
ideology or objective, but they may find it advantageous to 
cooperate with each other. 
 
¶10. (C) Anacko agreed with the Embassy's warden message; the 
north is not a safe place now. 
 
 
ALLEN