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C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2027 
TAGS: PREL KDEM PINR PHUM KCOR PTER KE
SUBJECT: OPINION LEADERS TALK POLITICS WITH AMBASSADOR 
CARSON 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 220 
     ¶B. 06 NAIROBI 4105 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 
1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: In a series of conversations with visiting 
Ambassador Johnnie Carson, opposition leaders, government 
officials and civil society interlocutors agreed that there 
was still much uncertainty surrounding the strength of Kenyan 
political coalitions and President Kibaki's health, that the 
strength of the Electoral Commission is critical, and that 
there is little prospect for minimum constitutional reforms 
before the election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Visiting Ambassador Johnnie Carson met recently 
with a variety of Kenyan interlocutors in Nairobi to discuss 
developments in domestic politics.  From the government, the 
list included Internal Security Minister John Michuki, 
Attorney General Amos Wako and Electoral Commission of Kenya 
(ECK) Chairman Samuel Kivuitu.  He also had conversations 
with opposition leaders and presidential hopefuls MPs Kalonzo 
Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga along with General 
Secretary of the National Council of Churches of Kenya 
 
SIPDIS 
Reverend Mutava Musyimi.  Other meetings in Nairobi with 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials focused on regional 
issues, including Sudan and Somalia, and will be reported 
septel. 
 
ODM-K: A Noisy Vehicle Without Wheels 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) The opposition coalition Orange Democratic 
Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) continues to negotiate a method for 
choosing its presidential nominee.  Between the two choices 
(a national primary election or consensus among the 
aspirants) Presidential hopeful Odinga was in favor of 
consensus given the challenges, both financial and political, 
of running a primary.  On the strength of the coalition, 
Odinga noted that there was nothing keeping a candidate who 
loses the nomination from leaving ODM-K.  He hinted that 
there was someone (rumored to be Musyoka, although Odinga did 
not say so) who might quit ODM-K and join the Kibaki team. 
 
¶4.  (C) Reverend Mutava Musyimi scoffed that ODM-K is not a 
party, but "a vehicle to power: a vehicle that is making 
noise, but not moving and probably has no wheels."  Musyimi 
explained that while Kibaki has "favored his own," (Kikuyu 
tribe) he has achieved a strong record of economic growth. 
As such, the ODM-K's presidential prospects via its 
anti-Kibaki campaign will not work.  While he thought 
coalition politics were the future in Kenya, and that ODM-K 
would be good for Kenya, he argued that the parties needed to 
move beyond coalitions viewed simply as a method for cobbling 
together various ethnicities.  Uhuru Kenyatta was unwilling 
to speculate on ODM-K's future.  "Your guess is as good as 
mine," he said, adding that the key would be a free and fair 
primary.  Kenyatta was adamant that ODM-K is only an umbrella 
organization, and that KANU remains his party. 
 
¶5.  (C) Buoyed by recent poll results which showed him 
overtaking Musyoka in popularity, Odinga thought his bid for 
State House was going very well.  He added, however, that 
Kibaki's rating had also improved.  Revealing his rivalry 
with Odinga, Musyoka commented that the government was 
helping Odinga because Kibaki supporters would rather the 
President face him, than Musyoka.  "Kibaki will not have to 
leave State House to win against Odinga," Musyoka remarked. 
"If I am the ODM candidate," he added, "Kibaki might not 
run."  Musyoka said he would try to make a deal with Raila, 
but added, "he's difficult." 
 
¶6.  (C) Kenyatta emphasized that the government too was in 
disarray, noting that within the president's inner circle 
there was instability.  During the Moi era, at least, he 
added, there was a clear authority and as a result, 
stability.  President Kibaki needs to organize his house, 
because right now, with no one in charge, ministers are 
making their own decisions, Kenyatta stated.  He also 
criticized the Kibaki administration for doing little to 
mitigate ethnic animosities. 
 
Kibaki: Robust Recluse or Sick at State House? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7.  (C) Assessments of Kibaki's health varied widely.  Odinga 
insisted Kibaki could not appear in public without being 
medicated, and shuts down when the drugs wear off.  Musyoka 
said Kibaki's health had improved, but that the President 
suffered from memory loss.  Wako, however, described a 
president who is "in meetings until eleven p.m.," and keeps a 
"punishing schedule."  Describing him as "a formidable man 
and an economist to the core," Reverend Musyimi was certain 
Kibaki has the energy and passion to serve a second term. 
This time around Kibaki, whom he described as "institutional, 
not personal, and very nationalistic," will let his economic 
record do a lot of the campaigning for him, Musyimi added. 
 
Michuki on Human Rights 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Although he focused mostly on regional issues, 
Internal Security Minister Michuki offered some views on 
human rights in Kenya.   With respect to political rallies 
("demonstrations"), the Minister noted that people have a 
tendency to misinterpret rights that are guaranteed in the 
constitution as unlimited.  "The African mind does not accept 
authority," he continued, explaining that while citizens have 
rights, they must also follow procedures.  When it comes to 
political gatherings, organizers must notify the government, 
and officials may in turn refuse the request, in the public 
interest.  Michuki acknowledged that citizens must be 
educated on their rights and the regulations as well. 
However, he added, the government's attempts to work with 
NGOs to increase awareness have been problematic as the NGOs 
are the tools of "mostly opposition" individuals.  (COMMENT: 
This is Michuki's typical tough-guy rhetoric.  END COMMENT.) 
 
Musical Chairs 
-------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) A key issue in the electoral debate is the status of 
ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu and whether Kibaki will keep him 
in place or not when Kivuitu's term expires on December 2 
(just before the expected election).  Raila repeated a widely 
held opinion that Commissioner Muturi Kigano, formerly 
Kibaki's lawyer and an ex-convict, would be selected to 
succeed Kivuitu.  Earlier Kivuitu had also suggested Kigano 
would succeed him, but he said that it now appeared two 
Ministers were arguing over Kigano's selection.  Musyoka was 
convinced the government "wants to push Kivuitu out."  Wako 
thought that although there will be people close to him 
whispering in his ear, Kibaki will "do the right thing," when 
the time comes.  The AG declined to speculate what that might 
be, however.  Despite the uncertainty, Kivuitu told 
Ambassador Carson he would stay through the election if he 
was asked to, but not for another five years. 
 
¶10.  (C) Kivuitu noted among the challenges he faces the 
possibility that the election itself could be boycotted if 
the politicians thought the playing field had been unfairly 
tipped.  One factor is the composition of the ECK itself, 
Kenyatta explained.  The Kibaki government's closed-door 
selection of nine commissioners (ref A) would damage the 
credibility of the election they run, in Kenyan voters' 
opinion, he said.  This, however, does not matter to the 
government, Kenyatta added.  Kivuitu was also concerned about 
the ECK's public image.  People call the nine "new" 
commissioners "the riggers," he said.  He added that the 
results themselves could be called into question if 
candidates think the election is conducted unfairly. 
 
Minimum Reforms have Minimal Prospects 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) Odinga emphasized that the key constitutional reform 
needed in Kenya is the devolution of power from the executive 
and from the center more generally.  He remarked, however, 
that there was little likelihood of the reforms passing 
before the election with Justice and Constitutional Affairs 
Minister Martha Karua working to derail the process.  Both 
Kenyatta and Musyoka blamed Karua for leading the 
government's efforts to "scuttle" the reform process.  Even 
Attorney General Wako thought there was too much suspicion 
all around for agreement. 
 
Corruption 
---------- 
 
¶12.  (C) Wako described significant progress in Kibaki's war 
against corruption.  Wako explained that rather than his own 
lack of will it was systemic inefficiencies as well as 
loopholes in Kenyan law that kept the chief orchestrators of 
major corruption scandals out of prison.  (NOTE: Wako's 
comments mirrored what he told the Ambassador in September 
(ref B).  END NOTE.)  Wako cited a lack of evidence and the 
need for "further investigation" as obstacles in obtaining 
prosecutions in major corruption cases.  Musyimi was less 
upbeat, criticizing the "architecture of the anti-corruption 
institutions," and the Kibaki government for letting pass its 
moment to clean up.  While Kenyatta conceded that the 
government had made gains economically, because it had not 
made any institutional changes, corruption continued. 
 
Terror Suspects: Take 'Em, Don't Tell 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C) On terror suspects wanted for the 1998 attacks on 
the US Embassies in East Africa, Wako suggested it would be 
politically far simpler to "not know they are Kenyans," and 
handle their prosecution outside of Kenya. 
 
¶14.  (U) Ambassador Carson has not cleared this message. 
RANNEBERGER