VZCZCXRO7153
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLI #1492 1451717
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251717Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5935
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0472
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1471
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO EUR/WE KEVIN OPSTRUP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECIN OFDP EIND EINV EPET ETRD EUN
PO, RS, YI 
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW 
 
REF: A. LISBON 01328 
     ¶B. LISBON 01814 
 
Classified By: TIFFANY McGRIFF, P/E OFFICER, EMBASSY LISBON, 
Reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A month before Portugal assumes the EU 
Presidency and on the heels of the May EU-Russia Summit, PM 
Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow May 27-29 to discuss 
easing EU-Russia tensions and strengthening bilateral ties. 
Socrates will also encourage Putin to support UNSC consensus 
on Kosovo, according to an MFA official who added that a 
Russian veto could result in a "disastrous outcome" and push 
Kosovo to declare unilateral independence.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) PM Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow on May 27-29 at 
the invitation of President Putin and will stay at the 
Kremlin, according to GOP sources.  Socrates, who has 
traveled extensively in preparation for Portugal's upcoming 
EU Presidency, decided to go instead of FM Amado to 
underscore the importance Portugal places on bilateral and 
EU-Russian relations, MFA Director for European Affairs 
Liliana Araujo told us.  The Prime Minister will be 
accompanied by a delegation of 53 business entrepreneurs and 
officials including representatives from Portugal's 
state-owned gas company Galp Energia, and aerospace systems 
development company Edisoft. 
 
¶3. (C) Socrates will focus on easing EU-Russia tensions and 
laying the groundwork for the EU-Russia Summit it is hosting 
in October. The Moscow agenda is heavy and includes an 
agreement on an early warning system for potential energy 
cuts by Russia. Araujo added that the GOP considers itself 
better positioned to improve EU-Russian relations during its 
presidency because Russia views Portugal as more even-handed 
than Germany.  Bilaterally, officials from Galp Energia and 
Russia's state-owned Gazprom hope to sign a deal on 
joint-exploration projects and liquefied natural gas 
procurement (ref B). Portugal's Edisoft also hopes to sign an 
agreement with the Russian space agency. 
 
¶4. (C) Kosovo is also high on Socrates's agenda. According to 
MFA political director Vasco Bramao Ramos, the GOP strongly 
supports Ahtisaari's proposal for monitored Kosovo 
independence and has made this clear to the Russians 
repeatedly and at all levels. Socrates is expected to 
reiterate the message that Russia needs to join consensus 
soon on the UN Security Council Resolution. If not, Kosovo 
may unilaterally declare independence, an act which Ramos 
believes would be the "most disastrous outcome" and set an 
unhelpful precedent for the region. 
 
¶5. (C) While the GOP supports the Ahtisaari proposal, some 
officials believe that the implementation process should not 
be "rushed," as moving too quickly could make the Russians 
less inclined to come on board. Many in the GOP doubt that 
the UNSC resolution will be adopted by the end of May and 
fully expect to inherit the Kosovo issue when Portugal 
assumes the EU Presidency in July (ref A).  The GOP is 
therefore, according to Araujo, working on a contingency plan. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) Socrates and FM Amado have traveled heavily in 
preparation for the EU presidency.  Their focus has mostly 
been on building relationships with key players rather than 
pressing any particular policy agendas or outcomes.  That 
approach is standard fare for the Portuguese in the foreign 
policy arena, as they are rarely out front in staking out 
positions on most global issues of importance.  That is the 
approach we suspect Socrates will take in Moscow, prodding to 
see where progress can be made on the more problematic issues 
in the EU-Russia relationship, while avoiding assertive 
rhetoric both in public and private.  The one issue he will 
push hard on is Kosovo, as the Portuguese agree with us that 
the Russians need to come on board soon in support of the UN 
Security Council Resolution.  Their biggest fear is a 
unilateral declaration of independence by the Kosovars and 
the consequences of such a move.  END COMMENT. 
 
Hoffman