VZCZCXRO9934
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0031/01 1291306
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 091306Z MAY 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0114
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0066
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0107

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE; PARIS FOR WALLER; BAKU FOR HAUGEN; BERLIN FOR 
PAETZOLD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/9/2027 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR KNNP
SUBJECT: CONFLICTING CLAIMS WHETHER MOUSAVIAN WILL BE RELEASED 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000031  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Director, Iran Regional 
Presence Office, Dubai, UAE. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S/NF) Summary:  An Iranian close to conservative circles 
believes former nuclear negotiator Mousavian is innocent of 
espionage charges but unlikely to be released soon.  Another 
source close to Rafsanjani thinks he will be released within 
days.  The first source believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered 
Mousavian's arrest as an indirect hit against Rafsanjani and the 
think tank linked to the Expediency Council.  The source claims 
to have tried to find out information about Mousavian from the 
head of Evin Prison but was told Mousavian was being held in the 
section controlled by the Ministry of Intelligence.  End summary 
 
Arrest of Mousavian 
------------------- 
 
2.(S/NF) A doctor reportedly close to Iranian conservative 
circles told IRPO Director May 7 that he believes that former 
nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian is innocent of the charges 
of espionage, but he doubts Mousavian will be released soon.  In 
contrast, a source close to Rafsanjani --  who also believed 
that Mousavian was innocent -- said May 7 that he thought 
Mousavian would be released in a few days.  (Note: There are 
unconfirmed reports May 9 that Mousavian will be released on 
bail.  End note) 
 
Scapegoat? 
---------- 
 
3.(S/NF) The doctor believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered Mousavian's 
arrest to target Rafsanjani and the Center for Strategic 
Research.  Because the president cannot go directly after 
Expediency Council head Rafsanjani, he goes after Mousavian, who 
is a close associate, reasoned the doctor.  The source claimed 
that the arrest was also designed to discredit the think tank 
affiliated with the Expediency Council, Center for Strategic 
Research, where Mousavian is the deputy head.  The center is 
headed by former Supreme National Security Council secretary 
Hojatoleslam Hassan Rowhani. 
 
4.(S/NF) The doctor said the arrest was then initiated by the 
Ministry of Intelligence.  He claimed the Minister Ejei is 
actually "with" Rafsanjani, but because he is in Ahmadi-Nejad's 
cabinet, he cannot ignore the president's orders. 
 
5.(S/NF) The doctor claimed the "facts" of the case do not add 
up.  The authorities claim they have been monitoring Mousavian 
for 2-3 years.  If this is true, he said, it does not reflect 
well on Iranian intelligence since Mousavian has been allowed to 
travel frequently outside the country.  He also claimed in true 
cases of espionage, the government hides the charges.  So far 
Mousavian has been accused of spying for the UK and Switzerland, 
said the doctor.  He assumes, however, that the government will 
later point the finger at the US, particularly given the 
relationship between the US and the Swiss, its protecting power 
in Iran. 
 
Chilling effect 
--------------- 
 
6.(S/NF) When asked if anyone were lobbying inside Iran on 
Mousavian's behalf, the doctor said he doubts anyone will speak 
up for him out of fear of being tainted.  The doctor said 
"everyone" in Iran is really frightened as a result of the 
arrest of Mousavian, the highest level Iranian official to be 
arrested on such serious charges in some time.  (Note: Al-Alam 
TV reported May 8 that Minister Ejei said two other people were 
summoned on the same charge as Mousavian and are under 
investigation.  End note)  The source said only MP Boroujerdi 
has raised his case publicly but without coming to his defense. 
(Note:  According to Fars News May 6, Iranian parliament's 
National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, chaired by 
Alaoddin Boroujerdi, summoned Intelligence Minister Ejei to 
brief on Mousavian's detention.  HYPERLINK 
"http://opensource.dni.sgov.gov/cgi-bin/cqcgi/ @rware.env?CQ 
_CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_USER_NAME=Mos2Bookmark&CQ_ PASSWORD=Document&CQ 
_LOGIN=Yes&CQ_DO_QUERY=Yes&CQ_CUR_LIBRARY=ALL &CQ_QUERY_STRING.DOC 
UMENT_ID=IAP20070506950034&CQ_MOS2_DO_QUERY_B OOKMARK_ARTICLE=Yes& 
TrackDocID=IAP20070506950034" \\l "HIT0006#HIT0006" Boroujerdi said he 
would inform the press about the case as soon as he receives the 
needed details. Endnote) 
 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000031  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Prison within a prison 
---------------------- 
 
7.(S/NF) According to the doctor, Mousavian flew back to Tehran, 
left the airport with no problem, drove back to his house, and 
there about 15 officials arrived to take him away, blindfolded. 
The doctor said Mousavian is being held at in the section of 
Evin prison run by the Ministry of Intelligence.  He claimed 
Mousavian's wife called him for help because he is friends with 
the head of Evin.  The source said when he tried to find out any 
information, the prison's central office told him they do not 
even have access to Mousavian.  The doctor assumed he is being 
tortured. 
 
8.(S/NF) Comment:  We have not heard before the assertion that 
Ahmadi-Nejad may have ordered Mousavian's arrest to target the 
Center for Strategic Research, rather than just Rafsanjani 
himself.  If true, it raises the question of whether Rowhani 
will also be accused.  The second source cited who is close to 
Rafsanjani was very concerned about Mousavian's arrest but did 
not comment further on the case, other than predicting his 
release. 
BURNS