VZCZCXRO0213
OO RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0503/01 1291503
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O 091503Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1054
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//POLAD/J2/J5// PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000503 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017 
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PINS MARR GV
SUBJECT: NO SOLUTION YET FOR MILITARY CRISIS 
 
REF: A. CONAKRY 493 
 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 501 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) Although Guinea's Prime Minister has led efforts to 
resolve the crisis within the Guinean military (Ref A), the 
government has yet to announce a satisfactory solution.  The 
National Council of Defense and Security has met several 
times over the last few days, with senior military leaders 
conferring with Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and the 
Minister of Finance, Economy and Planning, and Minister of 
Interior and Security.  While President Lansana Conte chairs 
the Council, he has not been present during any of the 
discussions.  To calm the troops, the military is proposing 
to promote all mid-ranked military personnel, a measure that 
the Prime Minister and his cabinet maintains the country 
cannot afford.  There is no agreement on removing key senior 
officers, as the soldiers have demanded.  While the soldiers' 
primary demands are focused on fundamental changes in 
military leadership, to date the proposed solutions are based 
on raising salaries.  Military and civilian leaders remain 
hopeful for a peaceful resolution.  While the soldiers are 
calm at present and have not set any public deadlines, they 
are growing impatient.  Without an adequate government 
response, military personnel intend to re-engage in protest 
activities, although we are unaware of any specific plans. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Soldiers Calm, But Armories Are Empty 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The military crisis that has seized the attention of 
Guinea's senior leaders (Ref A) remains unresolved.  Since 
May 4, we have received no reports of protests on military 
bases or in other locations by members of Guinea's armed 
forces.  Although there was a flare up among local community 
guards in Conakry (Ref B), they too remain calm.  In 
N'Zerekore on May 6-7, the population sought retribution 
against soldiers who looted stores.  Civilians went 
door-to-door, without warrants and unaccompanied by security 
or justice personnel, searching soldiers' homes for stolen 
goods.  In some cases, the homes were ransacked in the 
process.  Some stolen goods were recovered and returned to 
the store's owners.  There have been no recent reports of 
injuries.  At present, the situation remains calm but tenuous 
on military bases and barracks nationwide. 
 
¶3.  (C) Military sources confirmed to us that, during the May 
2-3 protests, military personnel looted the arms stores on 
most military bases.  A colonel told us that Guinea's 
armories are now empty and that military officials do not 
have information on the location of the weaponry and 
ammunition.  We were told that the fact of the "missing" arms 
makes any negotiations of the crisis more difficult -- in 
particular the restructuring of the armed forces that the 
soldiers are demanding.  No specific person has emerged to 
champion the soldier's plight, although a Lieutenant Abdoul 
Gadiri Diallo strongly voiced the personnel's concerns during 
their May 4 meeting with the Prime Minister.  Since May 4, 
there has been no large meeting between the Prime Minister, 
his cabinet and the military rank-and-file. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Negotiations Are Not Yet Bearing Fruit 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The majority of the discussions on this 
military-military issue are taking place within the 
restrained membership of the National Council of Defense and 
Security.  While this Council is nominally chaired by 
President Conte, he has not been present at any of the many 
meetings over the last few days.  While senior military 
officers typically lead the meetings, they have been doing so 
with Prime Minister Kouyate, Minister of Economy, Finance, 
and Planning Ousmane Dore, and Minister of Interior and 
Security Mohamed Bo Keita actively involved.  We understand 
that in order to bring immediate calm, the military has 
proposed promoting the mid-rank military personnel who did 
not receive any of the benefits that the more junior and more 
senior personnel enjoyed with the February promotions that 
Conte instituted to calm discontent bubbling up within the 
military at that time. 
 
¶5.  (C) The proposed promotions would increase salaries for 
 
CONAKRY 00000503  002 OF 002 
 
 
these soldiers from a base of 80,000 GNF (approximately 26 
USD) to 320,000 GNF (approximately 106 USD).  While the 
promotions would be based on grade, the average mid-ranked 
soldier would gain between 150,000 GNF (approximately 46 USD) 
to 300,000 GNF (approximately 95 USD) per month.  The Prime 
Minister and the Minister of Finance reportedly are rejecting 
the idea outright because of its implication for a national 
budget that already has a financing gap of at least 30 
million USD.  We understand the Prime Minister also has said 
that these salary increases are untenable and would set the 
stage for a series of salary demands that the government is 
in no position to meet 
 
¶6.  (C) Sources close to Prime Minister Kouyate told us that 
if it were up to him, he would begin with the dismissal of 
the senior military leaders and address pay issues 
secondarily.  However, the senior military representatives 
(who all would be at risk of losing their jobs), are 
dismissing this approach because the current uncertainty 
would make any additional changes "too delicate."  Another 
point that the military said would be absolutely 
non-negotiable is the re-instatement of salaries and benefits 
for officers involved in the 1996 mutiny.  Our interlocutors 
said that Conte would never, ever accept this demand being 
made by the soldiers. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
General Remains Hopeful for a Resolution 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) The morning of May 9, General Kaba "43" Camara, Army 
Chief of Staff, dropped by the embassy unannounced to discuss 
an unrelated matter.  (General Camara is seeking DOD 
humanitarian assistance to construct a health dispensary near 
his village in Beyla in the Forest Region.)  The Ambassador 
and the DATT took advantage of General Camara's visit to 
probe about the ongoing crisis within the military.  General 
Camara responded cautiously, noting that there was a "lack of 
understanding" between the military command and subordinate 
military personnel.  The Ambassador stated that he hoped this 
military matter could be resolved quickly so that it would 
not destabilize Guinea just as it starts on a new course 
toward reform.  Camara clamed to be hopeful that a resolution 
could be found, but he gave us no reason to believe his hopes 
were well-founded. 
 
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Comment 
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¶8.  (C)  Our interlocutors both in and outside of the 
military share General Camara's optimism and respond to our 
inquires with the refrain that this military issue must be 
resolved quickly.  However, it appears there is no immediate 
solution in sight.  There is no money in Guinea's coffers to 
appease the soldiers.  Even if the government were to find a 
short-term fix, the national budget could not support any 
increased military spending on salaries.  Although the 
soldiers would welcome more money, their core protest was 
against the endemic corruption at top levels of the military. 
 The National Council of Defense and Security does not appear 
to be seriously considering the soldier's demand to remove 
key officers (all of whom are part of the Council).  Neither 
Guinea's civilian leaders nor senior military officers have a 
solution for the crisis.  While they have remained quiet, the 
military rank-and-file will not accept a deadlock and are 
expecting some immediate concrete response. 
MCDONALD