VZCZCXRO1149
PP RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHCHI #0093/01 1411039
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211039Z MAY 07
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0480
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0527
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/21/2017 
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: ANTI-CNS RUMORS BOIL OVER IN NORTH 
 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000093  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Political Officer, CG Chiang Mai, 
Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Rumors of political undercurrents aligned 
against the Council for National Security (CNS) are percolating 
in northern Thailand, with northernmost Chiang Rai a hotspot for 
gossip on the machinations of former Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra, his politically connected relatives, and his Thai 
Rak Thai (TRT) allies. Local anecdotes making the rounds range 
from the highly dubious, such as one that predicts Thaksin will 
cross into Thailand at a northern border town, to more likely 
suspicions that TRT lieutenants are laying the ground work for 
future political activities. The rampant speculation over the 
intentions of Thaksin and his allies adds an attention-grabbing 
element of starpower to the gossip, distracting from signs of 
growing antipathy for the CNS among locals and the continued 
popularity of TRT. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Chiang Rai province, a long-time solid TRT stronghold 
notable even among the already pro-Thaksin North, has witnessed 
a flurry of rumors regarding the political situation in recent 
weeks. Many suspect Thaksin or those loyal to him are using 
Chiang Rai as a base to organize opposition to CNS leaders. Most 
rumors have little basis in fact, but show that Thaksin is still 
capable of capturing the imagination of the local populace and 
frustrating his enemies. Beneath these rumors, political 
observers tell the Consulate that many voters in the north are 
increasingly discontented with the CNS on everything from 
worsening economic conditions to the lack of inclusion of 
Buddhism as the national religion in the country's draft 
constitution. 
 
Rumors Place Thaksin and His Allies Hiding Around Every Corner 
 
¶3. (C) The latest volley of rumors began in mid-April, when 
reports placed former Natural Resources Minister and Thaksin 
ally Yongyuth Tiyapairat on the Laos-Thailand border organizing 
activists for a possible revolt against the government. 
Yongyuth, detained by the military in the aftermath of the coup, 
later left the country to pursue a doctoral degree in Texas. 
Credible sources show that he has remained in the United States 
since January, although he has been in touch with political 
contacts in Thailand and received a visit from his sister, also 
a former TRT MP, in March. Meanwhile, in a shining example of 
how incredulous local gossip can get, an anti-CNS network told 
the media this week it expects Thaksin and Yongyuth to 
rendezvous in Chiang Saen district (the closest town to the 
Golden Triangle border area with Thailand, Laos, and Burma) on 
May 29 to launch a legal battle against coup leaders. 
 
¶4. (C) Other rumors placing Thaksin's sister Yaowapha Wongsawat, 
a former TRT MP herself, in the same border area opposite Chiang 
Rai province are more credible. According to news reports, in 
early May Yaowapha met with TRT activists and former TRT MPs in 
Chiang Rai and on the Lao side of the border in Ban Huay Xai, 
whose local banks have long been suspected of playing a role in 
various money laundering and vote buying schemes in Thai 
elections. Previously, Yaowapha had evaded the CNS's demands 
that she report herself following the coup and took up a low 
profile until a few months ago when she began attending a number 
of public events. 
 
¶5. (C) Former TRT MP from Chiang Rai Samart Kaewmechai told the 
Consulate that Yaowapha was in town for the ordination into the 
monkhood of another former Chiang Rai MP. He dismissed rumors of 
large-scale anti-CNS organizing, noting that Yongyuth and 
Yaowapha were rivals in TRT. However, many say Yaowapha and 
other MPs are busy laying the foundation for a future TRT 
election campaign. Whether TRT survives the impending decision 
on dissolution or not, many expect northern TRT leaders to 
strongly contest elections in Chiang Rai and other strongholds, 
either under the TRT banner or under a reconstituted grouping of 
alliances and interests. Samart denied the existence of a 
"Thaksin pipeline" of cash for political activists and 
supporters, but TRT activists have already begun to set the tone 
for their campaign. 
 
Behind the Gossip, TRT Reaches Out to Voters 
 
¶6. (C) With rumors of anti-CNS activities grabbing headlines, 
Samart said TRT was busy restoring ties to local communities in 
Chiang Rai and elsewhere. Samart said that villagers have now 
experienced enough of the CNS to compare its performance to the 
Thaksin government and reviews for the government's first eight 
months are not promising. Samart said villagers have told TRT 
leaders they blame the government for falling crop prices and an 
overall slowdown in economic growth. Like much of the country, 
they see the government "shifting to neutral gear" and failing 
to act on issues of importance to locals. Meanwhile, TRT members 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000093  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
are quick to remind locals that still-popular government 
healthcare and social welfare programs originated under Thaksin. 
 
¶7. (C) Samart said the specifics of the constitutional drafting 
process have not registered much with local voters. While some 
hot button issues have attracted interest, such as enshrining 
Buddhism as the national religion in the constitution (which 
Samart said northerners strongly support), most view the 
drafting process as a forgone conclusion decided in Bangkok 
without their input. Samart said villagers will likely toe the 
line set by their former TRT MPs when the draft charter comes to 
a vote, an unpromising sign for the government given that TRT 
MPs have sharply criticized proposals to reduce the number of 
MPs and largely view the draft constitution process as an effort 
to kill off the party. 
 
Comment: The Thaksin Boogeyman Distracts CNS From TRT's 
Continued Influence 
 
¶8. (C) Despite the fictitious rumors placing Thaksin and his 
associates across the border plotting nefarious activities and 
publicity stunts, TRT loyalists here in the north are indeed 
maneuvering to play a strong role in Thailand's political 
future. That these rumors of Thaksin's whereabouts have captured 
the public's imagination show that CNS leaders remain fixated on 
Thaksin at the expense of a coherent outreach to locals in 
former TRT strongholds whose support they will need to pass the 
draft constitution and secure their own political futures. While 
military leaders fret over who saw whom where and when, TRT 
leaders are busy re-establishing their political networks, 
lobbying influential village leaders for support, and trumpeting 
the successes of the Thaksin government over the missteps of the 
current regime. These TRT political maneuverings are likely to 
cause larger headaches for the government during election time 
than the latest worst-nightmare scenarios conjured up by 
rumormongers. End Comment. 
CAMP